• Top Picks: Telekom Malaysia (TM), Axiata Group (AXIATA), and CelcomDigi (CDB). A stock-picking strategy oriented towards the liquid large caps is favoured given the tepid industry growth prospects and lack of meaningful re-rating catalysts. We continue to see fixed-line telcos outperforming on structural tailwinds. With the mandatory standard on access pricing (MSAP) up for another review by the year-end, regulatory risk looks to be still a key sector peeve. Still NEUTRAL.
  • 2H25: More of the same? We see the tepid industry revenue momentum continuing in 2H25 as telcos maintain the affordable connectivity narrative via tactical campaigns. The pressure on industry ARPUs should stay elevated with rebates offered. Overall, we believe the rise in 5G wholesale charges (on higher 5G traffic) and inflation-led opex pressures should weigh on industry EBITDA despite the good cost restraint exercised by the MNOs.
  • Access pricing review looms; JENDELA Phase 2 (JP2) kick-off soon. We expect Maxis and CDB to exercise their put options to acquire the Ministry of Finance’s (MoF) 41.7% stake in Digital Nasional Berhad (DNB) by year-end. This would mark the Government’s full exit from DNB with the three MNOS (including YTL Communications) holding an equal 33.3% each. With a new operating model instituted, a review of the existing 5G wholesale framework is plausible. The MSAP is up for review by end-2025 which could renew concerns again over broadband price competition. However, based on the previous rhetoric and the already competitive broadband pricing landscape, we think adjustments to access prices would be manageable and rates commercially negotiated. We think it is possible that the regulator extends the validity of current access prices (2023-2025) while adding 5G wholesale rates (currently not regulated) into the access list. Meanwhile, press reports indicated that JP2 is set to begin in September utilising a hybrid approach with c.3,000 sites identified nationwide. We see this and the rollout of the second 5G network benefitting towercos and/or infrastructure providers including OCK Group, Reach-Ten Holdings and Redtone International.
  • edotco’s potential divestment fuels AXIATA’s rebound; monetisation a key re-rating catalyst. Successive news flow on potential asset monetisation saw AXIATA’s share price recover from multi-year lows in April. We think a 3-9 month window is highly probable for an asset sale to materialise, supported by improving market appetite, waning interest rates and the group’s headline net debt/EBITDA target of 2.5x by end-FY26 (1Q25: 3x). At 8-12x EV/EBITDA, edotco could be valued at MYR4.2-8.3bn. Proceeds from the divestment would generate significant interest savings with the repayment of USD holdco debt (42% of total debt) contributing to lower net debt/EBITDA and likely offsetting the dilution in earnings from the deconsolidation of XL (now known as XL Smartfren (EXCL IJ, BUY, TP: IDR2,950), based on our estimates.
  • Preferred picks. We like TM for its expanding ROE, under-leveraged balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA of 0.4x)) and potential for higher dividends. The asset monetisation exercise and balance sheet repair remain key re-rating catalysts for AXIATA. CDB is our preferred mobile exposure on stronger commercial execution and integration synergies. Key risks to our sector/stock call are competition, earnings and/or dividend shortfall and regulatory setbacks.