Neutral (from Buy)






SP Setia Expect Delay In Land Sale Recognition; D/G NEUTRAL


RHB

25 August 2025

SP Setia (SPSB MK)

Shariah Compliant

Malaysia Company Update

Property | Real Estate

Neutral (from Buy)

SP Setia Expect Delay In Land Sale Recognition; D/G NEUTRAL

  • Downgrade to NEUTRAL from Buy with new MYR1.20 TP from MYR1.35, 14% upside. We cut our FY25F-27F earnings by 13-15% as the land sale recognition may come in later than expected. Although management has de-geared the balance sheet (0.37x net gearing), we remain concern on the company’s weak operational fundamentals given thin development margins. Hence, SP Setia will still need to highly depend on land sales to support earnings. Any early signs of a turnaround should help to re-rate the stock.
  • Land sales recognition may kick in later. During the briefing last Friday, management indicated there could be two more land sales to be recognised in 2H25 that could generate an estimated gain of about MYR20m. On top of this, half of the industrial land sales at Setia Alaman (unbilled sales: MYR642m) may also be billed progressively in 2H25 as infrastructure works pick up. All in, we expect land sales gain of MYR80-100m to be recognised in the coming two quarters. At the meantime, management is still negotiating on another two land sales, of which, if they materialise, would help to lift property sales (1H25: MYR1.9bn) so that the MYR4.8bn target can be met by year end.
  • Another MYR3.1bn worth of projects to be launched in 2H25. The company has planned to launch MYR5.4bn worth of projects this year, and so far as at Jul 2025, a total of MYR2.68bn has been rolled out. The balance MYR2.7bn (total 30 projects) will be gradually launched in the coming months. These projects comprise of landed township products and some high-rise residential units mainly in the Klang Valley area. We highlight that, SP Setia still has MYR1.28bn worth of unsold completed inventory, and hence any newly completed unsold units will be added to the outstanding inventory.
  • Downward revision in earnings forecasts. We cut our FY25F-27F earnings by 13%, 13% and 15% as some land sales recognition may come in later than expected. The resulting land disposal arising from the collaboration with Ally Logistic Property (ALP) should be recognised in 2026, but management has yet to guide on the quantum. Recall, SP Setia and ALP (60:40) will jointly develop two smart warehouses with 1.5m floor area (150,000 pallet) at Setia Alaman. Construction works will start next year and take 2-3 years to complete.
  • Downgrade to NEUTRAL. We downgrade the stock and lower our TP to MYR1.20 is based on a 60% discount to RNAV (from 55%), with a 0% ESG discount/premium. While we look forward to the potential change/restructuring that the new CEO Datuk Zaini Yusoff will bring about, a successful turnaround, in our view, will take time.

Target Price (Return): MYR1.20 (+14%)

Price (Market Cap): MYR1.05 (USD1,243m)

ESG score: 3.0 (out of 4)

Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD): 6.66m/1.57m

Analyst

Loong Kok Wen CFA

+603 2302 8116

loong.kok.wen@rhbgroup.com

Analyst picture is not included as images are not allowed.

Share Performance (%)

YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m
Absolute (28.1) (10.3) (12.5) (22.8) (19.2)
Relative (25.4) (15.4) (17.1) (23.2) (16.5)

52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 1.03 – 1.46

SP Setia (SPSB MK) Price Close Chart (no image)

Price Close and Relative to FBM KLCI (RHS) chart data for SP Setia (SPSB MK) is not included as images are not allowed. Source: Bloomberg

Forecasts and Valuation

Forecasts and Valuation Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total turnover (MYRm) 4,374 5,294 3,822 4,099 4,121
Recurring net profit (MYRm) 299 508 343 365 366
Recurring net profit growth (%) 10.3 70.2 (32.6) 6.7 0.2
Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.07 0.12 0.08 0.09 0.09
DPS (MYR) 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
Recurring P/E (x) 14.33 8.42 12.55 11.89 11.98
P/B (x) 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.28
Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 2.8 1.6 1.6 1.6
Return on average equity (%) 2.1 3.6 2.3 2.4 2.4
Net debt to equity (%) 48.8 34.4 34.6 34.5 33.2

Overall ESG Score: 3.0 (out of 4)

E Score: 3.0 (GOOD)

S Score: 3.2 (EXCELLENT)

G Score: 2.9 (GOOD)

Please refer to the ESG analysis on the next page

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


1    RHB

Emissions And ESG

Trend analysis

SP Setia established the eDew system and digitised the data collection process, and introduced Scope 3 emissions tracking. 2024 will be used as a baseline year for absolute GHG emissions.

Emissions (tCO2e) Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25
Scope 1 457 2,770 na
Scope 2 12,429 34,335 na
Scope 3 na 2,016 na
Total emissions na 12,886 39,121 na

Source: Company data, RHB

Latest ESG-Related Developments

SP Setia completed its Setia Green Roadmap, with interim targets and actionable steps to achieve net zero carbon emission by 2050.

The group is forming a biodiversity policy to address key issues such as land conservation and resource replenishment.

ESG Unbundled

Overall ESG Score: 3.0 (out of 4)

Last Updated: 28 February 2025

E Score: 3.0 (GOOD)

SP Setia is among the early adopters of ESG, from building design to masterplan. The company signed MOU with TNB in Apr 2022 for installation of solar panel system and EV charging facilities in SP Setia’s upcoming developments.

S Score: 3.2 (EXCELLENT)

Setia Foundation was established since 2000 to help underprivileged Malaysians.

G Score: 2.9 (GOOD)

60% of SP Setia’s board members are independent. The company has an in-house investor relations team and holds investor meetings regularly, embodying good transparency and disclosure practices.

ESG Rating History

ESG Rating History chart is not included as images are not allowed. Based on the data points visible in the chart, the ESG score has consistently been 3.0 from Aug-23 to Aug-25.

Source: RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


2    RHB

Financial Exhibits

Asia
Malaysia
Property
SP Setia
SPSB MK
Neutral

Valuation basis
60% discount to RNAV

Key drivers

  1. New property sales;
  2. Successful de-gearing initiatives.

Key risks

  1. Change in senior management team which could result in change in business strategy;
  2. Unexpected slowdown in economic growth.

Company Profile
SP Setia has been the property sector bellwether over the years. The company has a large presence in many key areas in Malaysia. It also has development projects in the UK, Singapore and Australia.

Financial summary (MYR)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Recurring EPS 0.07 0.12 0.08 0.09 0.09
EPS 0.07 0.13 0.08 0.09 0.09
DPS 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
BVPS 3.55 3.59 3.62 3.65 3.69
Return on average equity (%) 2.1 3.6 2.3 2.4 2.4
Return on average assets (%) 1.0 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.3

Valuation metrics

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Recurring P/E (x) 14.33 8.42 12.55 11.89 11.98
P/B (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 2.8 1.6 1.6 1.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.54 4.65 8.03 8.06 8.10

Income statement (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total turnover 4,374 5,294 3,822 4,099 4,121
Gross profit 1,341 1,801 1,044 1,111 1,088
EBITDA 1,103 1,610 958 979 973
Depreciation and amortisation (40) (46) (46) (46) (46)
Operating profit 1,063 1,564 912 933 927
Net interest (349) (384) (320) (309) (302)
Pre-tax profit 656 1,066 542 574 575
Taxation (299) (491) (152) (158) (158)
Reported net profit 299 520 343 365 366
Recurring net profit 299 508 343 365 366

Cash flow (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Change in working capital 707 1,528 (489) (306) (98)
Cash flow from operations 1,744 2,846 582 791 1,001
Capex 0 0 (20) (100) (100)
Cash flow from investing activities (4) 243 (20) (180) (180)
Dividends paid (68) (55) (120) (70) (71)
Cash flow from financing activities (1,386) (2,122) (340) (290) (292)
Cash at beginning of period 2,633 2,496 3,141 2,641 2,339
Net change in cash 354 966 223 321 529
Ending balance cash 2,987 3,462 3,364 2,962 2,868

Balance sheet (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total cash and equivalents 2,496 3,141 2,641 2,339 2,245
Tangible fixed assets 15,196 15,072 15,046 15,100 15,153
Intangible assets 14 15 15 15 15
Total investments 3,721 3,463 3,463 3,463 3,463
Total other assets 548 428 435 523 611
Total assets 29,006 27,604 26,881 27,157 27,312
Short-term debt 3,043 2,204 2,054 2,004 1,954
Total long-term debt 7,102 6,383 6,183 6,033 5,883
Total liabilities 13,344 11,760 10,716 10,647 10,457
Shareholders’ equity 14,450 14,614 14,886 15,181 15,476
Minority interests 1,213 1,230 1,278 1,328 1,379
Total equity 15,663 15,844 16,164 16,510 16,855
Total liabilities & equity 29,006 27,604 26,881 27,157 27,312

Key metrics

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Revenue growth (%) (1.8) 21.0 (27.8) 7.3 0.5
Recurring net profit growth (%) 10.3 70.2 (32.6) 6.7 0.2
Recurrent EPS growth (%) 10.2 70.1 (32.9) 5.6 (0.8)
Gross margin (%) 30.7 34.0 27.3 27.1 26.4
Recurring net profit margin (%) 6.8 9.6 9.0 8.9 8.9
Dividend payout ratio (%) 18.3 23.1 20.4 19.3 19.5

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


3    RHB

Figure 1: RNAV estimate

Projects

Projects Remaining landbank (acres) Remaining GDV (MYR m) Stake NPV (@ 10%)
Central Region
Setia Alam 133 1,294 100% 90.5
Setia City 64 5,234 100% 82.1
Setia Alaman 258 1,793 100% 60.4
Setia Ecohill 165 1,821 100% 80.1
Setia EcoHill 2 588 3,246 100% 116.9
Glengowrie 305 2,160 100% 40.0
Setia Mayuri 108 736 100% 44.8
Setia Eco Park 128 2,231 50% 68.6
Precinct Arundina @ Setia Eco Park 19 258 100% 16.1
Setia Eco Glades 24 783 70% 16.8
Setia Safiro 9 179 70% 7.0
Setia Eco Templer 37 833 100% 46.7
Setia Warisan Tropika 60 626 100% 34.8
Setia Eco City 4 2,204 100% 82.7
Setia Federal Hill 51 21,135 100% 142.5
Setia Federal hill JV 1 751 51% 5.8
Setia Alamsari North 133 986 100% 41.6
Setia Alamsari South 226 2,877 100% 103.5
Putrajaya 156 362 60% 11.4
Setia Trio 1 70% 0.0
Bandar Kinrara 38 2,465 51% 84.1
Setia Bayuemas (I&P) 140 2,228 52% 53.1
Setia Bayuemas (PG) 51 373 100% 18.7
Alam Damai 19 545 70% 19.1
Alam Impian 224 7,115 100% 228.6
Temasya Glenmarie 65 2,151 66% 76.2
Northern Region
Setia Fontaines 1,109 12,018 100% 268.2
Setia Eco Forest @ Tj Bungah 35 960 100% 36.2
Setia Pearl Island 21 635 100% 20.3
Bukit Dumbar 6 539 100% 13.0
Setia Sky Vista 13 450 100% 15.0
Setia Sky Hill 4 38 100% 0.8
Seri Bayu 13 240 100% 7.6
Setia Raintree Residence 21 200 100% 5.5
Setia Sky Ville 2 324 100% 9.0
Setia Miracca (Setia Sky Cubes) 2 235 100% 6.8
Pangsapuri Rimbun, Balik Pulau 3 19 100% 0.3
Southern Region
Setia Indah Johor 9 269 100% 17.1
Setia Tropika 92 1,108 100% 61.9
Setia Eco Cascadia 59 1,361 100% 63.8
Setia Business Park II 44 394 100% 13.5
Bukit Indah Johor 31 449 100% 20.9
Setia Eco Gardens 189 1,303 70% 49.0
Setia Business Park I 50 280 70% 7.0
Taman Perling 17 334 100% 13.0
Taman Pelangi 6 735 100% 23.2
Taman Rinting 96 736 89% 24.4
Taman Pelangi Indah I 165 2,043 100% 61.8
Mukim Tanjung Kupang 307 1,390 100% 13.2
Mukim Serkat, Pontian 55 20 100% 0.1
Eastern Region
Aeropod @ Tg Aru 35 1,390 100% 4.3
Lintas Land 9 1,689 100% 3.5
Overseas
383 La Trobe Melbourne 1 2,463 100% 96.9
Battersea Power Station, UK 18 28,201 40% 84.3
EcoLakes, My Phuoc 22 493 57% 4.1
EcoXuan, Lai Thieu 10 750 95% 27.1
Setia Izumisano City Centre 5 2,488 100% 7.5
Sydney 0 655 100% 25.8

Unbilled sales 187.7

Total 2,764.9

Shareholders’ funds (incl. RCPS-is) 14,072.9

Total RNAV 16,837.8

Enlarged share cap (incl. RCPS-I A&C) 5,631.7

RNAV/share 2.99

Discount 60%

Intrinsic value 1.20

ESG premium 0%

Target price 1.20

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


4    RHB

Recommendation Chart

Recommendation & Target Price Chart (no image). The following table provides the underlying data.

Recommendation History

Date Recommendation Target Price Price
2025-08-21 Buy 1.35 1.06
2025-05-22 Buy 1.72 1.20
2025-03-03 Buy 1.72 1.33
2024-11-26 Buy 1.72 1.34
2024-08-15 Buy 1.72 1.29
2024-05-16 Buy 1.72 1.53
2024-03-25 Buy 1.56 1.35
2024-03-01 Buy 1.24 0.85
2023-11-24 Neutral 0.93 0.81
2023-08-17 Buy 0.93 0.86
2023-07-05 Buy 0.75 0.57
2023-05-17 Neutral 0.60 0.53
2023-04-25 Neutral 0.64 0.58
2022-04-20 Buy 1.48 1.22
2022-02-28 Neutral 1.28 1.28

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

See important disclosures at the end of this report


5    RHB

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

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  2. RHBIB did not receive compensation or benefit (including gift and special cost arrangement e.g. company/issuer-sponsored and paid trip) in relation to the production of this report.

Indonesia

Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Aug 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia hereby declares that:

  1. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia and its investment analysts, does not have any interest in the securities of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.

For the avoidance of doubt, interest in securities include the following:

  1. Holding directly or indirectly, individually or jointly own/hold securities or entitled for dividends, interest or proceeds from the sale or exercise of the subject company’s securities covered in this report*;
  2. Being bound by an agreement to purchase securities or has the right to transfer the securities or has the right to pre subscribe the securities*.
  3. Being bound or required to buy the remaining securities that are not subscribed/placed out pursuant to an Initial Public Offering*.
  4. Managing or jointly with other parties managing such parties as referred to in (a), (b) or (c) above.
  1. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia is not a market maker in the securities or capital market products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
  2. None of PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia’s staff** or associated person serve as a director or board member* of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
  3. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia did not receive compensation for investment banking or corporate finance services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
  4. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia** did not receive compensation or benefit (including gift and special cost arrangement e.g. company/issuer-sponsored and paid trip) in relation to the production of this report:

Notes:
*The overall disclosure is limited to information pertaining to PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia only.
**The disclosure is limited to Research staff of PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia only.

Singapore

Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Aug 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, the Singapore Research department of RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) hereby declares that:

  1. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or associated companies do not make a market in any issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  2. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies and its analysts do not have a financial interest (including a shareholding of 1% or more) in the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  3. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research staff or connected persons do not serve on the board or trustee positions of the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  4. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not have and have not within the last 12 months had any corporate finance advisory relationship with the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report or any other relationship that may create a potential conflict of interest.
  5. RHB Bank Berhad, or person associated or connected to it do not have any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, the securities, specified securities based derivatives contracts or units in a collective investment scheme covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  6. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research analysts do not receive any compensation or benefit in connection with the production of this research report or recommendation on the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts.

Analyst Certification

The analyst(s) who prepared this report, and their associates hereby, certify that: (1) they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for:

Analyst Company

(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

See important disclosures at the end of this report


6    RHB


7    RHB

RHB

KUALA LUMPUR

RHB Investment Bank Bhd

Level 3A, Tower One, RHB Centre

Jalan Tun Razak

Kuala Lumpur 50400

Malaysia

Tel: +603 2302 8100

Fax: +603 2302 8134

JAKARTA

PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia

Revenue Tower, 11th Floor, District 8 – SCBD

Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav 52-53

Jakarta 12190

Indonesia

Tel: +6221 5093 9888

Fax: +6221 5093 9777

SINGAPORE

RHB Bank Berhad (Singapore branch)

90 Cecil Street

#04-00 RHB Bank Building

Singapore 069531

Fax: +65 6509 0470


8    RHB


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