Duopharma Biotech (DBB MK): Strong Performance and Positive Outlook






Duopharma Biotech: Strong Performance and Positive Outlook


RHB
Small Cap
Asean Research
22 August 2025

Duopharma Biotech (DBB MK): Strong Performance and Positive Outlook

On a Solid Footing; Maintain BUY

Shariah Compliant

Malaysia Results Review

Consumer Non-cyclical | Pharmaceuticals

  • Keep BUY and DCF-derived MYR1.56 TP, 18% upside and c.2% FY25F yield. Duopharma Biotech booked 2Q25 core net profit of MYR23.7m. This brings 1H25 core profit to MYR53m, at 57% of our and consensus full-year estimates. We deem the results to be in line with expectations, as 2H25 is usually seasonally weaker. Moving forward, the company’s growth should continue to be anchored by the extended contract to supply pharmaceutical products under the approved product purchased list (APPL), and favourable raw material costs.
  • Results overview. 2Q25 core profit grew 37.5% YoY, primarily driven by robust sales to the public sector – supported by the expanded contract award under the APPL (with extended numbers of SKUs of 100 products worth MYR684m). GPM expanded 3ppts YoY to 37.4%, likely driven by the easing of key raw material prices – active pharmaceutical ingredient price (API) coupled with the weakening of USD against the MYR.
  • A temporary relief from insulin supply contract extension. In May, the Health Ministry (MOH) extended the supply of human insulin for Biocon until the end of Oct 2025. This comes after DBB’s existing contract for the supply and distribution of human insulin was due for renewal at end-April. Following the contract extension, we gather that the distribution of insulin will be carried out on purchase order basis as opposed to contractual basis prior to April, suggesting that the revenue recognition could be erratic until 3Q25. There has been concern over the entry of a new competitor participating in the tender. Should the MOH decide to spilt the contract equally between DBB and its competitor, we expect a potential earnings impact of 6% to our FY26 earnings estimate on the basis of a 10% net margin assumption.
  • Outlook. DBB’s prospects should continue to be underpinned by the additional letter of award by MOH for the supply of pharmaceutical products under the APPL contract. A higher budget allocation to the MOH, which should boost DBB’s sales to the public sector (which accounted for c.50% of total sales in 2024). Active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) price normalisation and the weakening of USD should continue to support near-term profitability, in our view.
  • Earnings estimates. We make no changes to our estimates as DBB’s results were in line. We continue to like the stock, underpinned by better earnings visibility and sustained consumer demand towards pharmaceutical products. Our unchanged MYR1.56 TP (DCF), which includes an 8% ESG premium, implies 15.5x FY26 P/E, at 0.4SD below its 3-year historical mean of 17x. Key downside risks: Lower-than-expected sales volume, the USD strengthening against the MYR, and higher-than-expected operating costs.

Buy (Maintained)

Target Price (Return): MYR1.56 (18.3%)

Price (Market Cap): MYR1.32 (USD300m)

ESG score: 3.4 (out of 4)

Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD): 0.97m/0.23m

Analyst

Oong Chun Sung
+603 2302 8126
chun.sung@rhbgroup.com

Share Performance (%)

YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m
Absolute 5.6 (4.4) 0.0 4.8 7.3
Relative 8.9 (8.6) (2.8) 5.0 10.2
52-wk Price low/high (MYR): 1.11-1.42

Duopharma Biotech – Ord (DBB MK)

Price Close • Relative to FBM KLCI (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg

Forecasts and Valuation

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total turnover (MYRm) 705 814 877 929 972
Recurring net profit (MYRm) 61 72 93 97 105
Recurring net profit growth (%) (45.4) 18.7 29.6 4.0 8.2
Recurring P/E (x) 20.78 17.60 13.61 13.09 12.09
P/B (x) 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4
P/CF (x) 25.84 15.21 9.65 9.89 9.38
Dividend Yield (%) 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.31 10.21 7.65 7.13 6.72
Return on average equity (%) 7.8 9.0 12.6 12.0 11.9
Net debt to equity (%) 40.2 35.0 22.1 11.6 2.1

Overall ESG Score: 3.4 (out of 4)

E Score: 3.4 (EXCELLENT)

S Score: 3.0 (GOOD)

G Score: 3.7 (EXCELLENT)

Please refer to the ESG analysis on the next page

Note:

Small cap stocks are defined as companies with a market capitalisation of less than USD0.5bn.

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Emissions And ESG

Trend analysis

The increase of carbon emission in 2023 was mainly attributed by its inaugural inclusion of Scope 3 emission reporting.

Emissions (tCO2e) Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25
Scope 1 1,191 1,362 1,646 na
Scope 2 38,866 38,946 38,440 na
Scope 3 187,163 140,789 na
Total emissions 40,057 227,471 180,875 na

Source: Company data, RHB

Latest ESG-Related Developments

Pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030, net zero carbon emissions by 2050, and to replace 50% of single-use plastics with biodegradable plastics within its operations by 2026.

ESG Unbundled

Overall ESG Score: 3.4 (out of 4)

Last Updated: 5 June 2025

E Score: 3.4 (EXCELLENT)

DBB has established Net Zero Transition Plan to drive its efforts to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. It intends to replace single-use plastics with biodegradable ones within its operations by 2026.

S Score: 3.0 (GOOD)

DBB has established multiple communication channels (including its quarterly town hall sessions) with employees to make them feel engaged and connected with senior management. The female:male workers ratio stands at 45:55.

G Score: 3.7 (EXCELLENT)

64% of its board members are independent, and 45% are female, exceeding the Malaysian Code on Corporate Governance requirement of 30%. Additionally, DBB provides full disclosures on its directors’ remunerations, including salaries and bonuses, on a named basis. The group holds investor briefings regularly, embodying good transparency and disclosure practices.

Source: RHB

Financial Exhibits

Asia

  • Malaysia
  • Consumer Non-cyclical
  • Duopharma Biotech
  • DBB MK
  • Buy

Valuation basis

We use DCF-FCFF to value Duopharma.

Key drivers

  1. Increase in health awareness leading to higher demand for pharmaceutical products;
  2. Better efficiency from its new plant

Key risks

Downside risks to our call include lower-than-expected sales volumes and stronger USD/MYR.

Company Profile

Duopharma Biotech is the largest local pharmaceutical company by volume and market cap. It produces vitamin C and solutions for diabetes, hepatitis C, cancer, and kidney disease treatments.

Financial summary (MYR)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Recurring EPS 0.06 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.11
DPS 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
BVPS 0.72 0.74 0.80 0.88 0.95
Return on average equity (%) 7.8 9.0 12.6 12.0 11.9

Valuation metrics

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Recurring P/E (x) 20.78 17.60 13.61 13.09 12.09
P/B (x) 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4
FCF Yield (%) 1.3 4.8 8.3 8.0 8.5
Dividend Yield (%) 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.31 10.21 7.65 7.13 6.72
EV/EBIT (x) 19.03 14.82 10.25 9.57 9.12

Income statement (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total turnover 705 814 877 929 972
Gross profit 268 302 359 376 387
EBITDA 122 146 185 189 188
Depreciation and amortisation (43) (45) (47) (48) (49)
Operating profit 79 101 138 140 139
Net interest (15) (21) (16) (13) (6)
Pre-tax profit 63 80 122 127 132
Taxation (11) (17) (29) (30) (27)
Reported net profit 53 63 93 97 105
Recurring net profit 61 72 93 97 105

Cash flow (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Change in working capital (46) (34) (9) (17) (19)
Cash flow from operations 49 83 132 128 135
Capex (33) (23) (26) (27) (27)
Cash flow from investing activities (43) (27) (26) (27) (27)
Dividends paid (9) (27) (29) (29) (29)
Cash flow from financing activities 296 (89) (63) (63) (63)
Cash at beginning of period 158 271 265 307 346
Net change in cash 302 (33) 43 39 45
Ending balance cash 459 237 307 346 391

Balance sheet (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total cash and equivalents 271 265 307 346 391
Tangible fixed assets 582 568 552 535 518
Total investments 38 24 24 24 24
Total assets 1,345 1,378 1,405 1,443 1,495
Short-term debt 66 48 48 48 48
Total long-term debt 481 465 430 396 362
Total liabilities 658 669 632 601 577
Total equity 687 709 774 842 918
Total liabilities & equity 1,345 1,378 1,405 1,443 1,495

Key metrics

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Revenue growth (%) 1.1 15.5 7.8 5.9 4.6
Recurrent EPS growth (%) (45.9) 18.1 29.3 4.0 8.2
Gross margin (%) 38.1 37.1 40.9 40.5 39.8
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 17.3 18.0 21.1 20.3 19.4
Net profit margin (%) 7.5 7.7 10.6 10.4 10.8
Dividend payout ratio (%) 41.9 46.1 30.9 29.7 27.5
Capex/sales (%) 4.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8
Interest cover (x) 4.33 3.79 6.54 7.30 14.09

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Figure 1: Results snapshot

FYE Dec (MYRm) 2Q24 1Q25 2Q25 QoQ (%) YoY (%) 1H24 1H25 YoY (%) Comments
Revenue 218.3 262.7 221.8 (15.6) 1.6 411.3 484.5 17.8 Topline was stronger YoY supported by the expanded contract award under the APPL contract. Revenue was QoQ weaker due to absence of one-off insulin sales in 1Q25 and the seasonally softer quarter in 2Q25.
Gross profit 74.9 93.3 83.1 (11.0) 10.8 149.2 176.3 18.2
GP margin (%) 34.3 35.5 37.4 1.9 3.1 36.3 36.4
EBITDA 37.5 48.7 41.5 (14.8) 10.8 73.1 90.3 23.5
EBITDA margin (%) 17.2 18.6 18.7 17.8 18.6
Depreciation 10.1 10.2 10.0 1.1 1.0 20.3 20.2 0.5
EBIT 27.3 38.6 31.5 (18.4) 15.2 52.8 70.1 32.8
EBIT margin (%) 12.5 14.7 14.2 12.8 14.5
Finance cost (6.8) (6.2) (6.3) (1.2) 7.5 (13.8) (12.6) 8.8
EI/Others (0.8) (3.7) (3.5) 6.9 (359.9) (3.3) (7.2) (115.9)
Pretax profit 22.0 33.7 26.6 (21.2) 21.1 42.1 60.3 43.4
Pretax margin (%) 10.1 12.8 12.0 10.2 12.4
Tax (5.3) (8.1) (6.4) 21.2 (21.0) (10.1) (14.5) (43.4)
Effective tax rate (%) 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0
Minority interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm Nm 0.0 0.0 Nm
Net profit 16.7 25.6 20.2 (21.2) 21.1 32.0 45.8 43.4
Core profit 17.4 29.4 23.7 (19.4) 35.7 35.3 53.0 50.3 Core earnings were 57% of ours and Street full year estimate
Net margin (%) 8.0 11.2 10.7 (0.5) 2.7 8.6 10.9 2.4

Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 2: DCF valuation

FYE Dec (MYR m) FY25F FY26F FY27F FY28F FY29F FY30F FY31F FY32F FY33F FY34F Terminal
NOPAT 105 107 110 116 118 125 135 137 139 141
+ D&A 47 48 49 51 54 56 59 62 66 69
– Change in NWC (9) (17) (19) (15) (20) (18) (18) (21) (23) (24)
– CAPEX (26) (27) (27) (51) (53) (56) (70) (73) (77) (80)
Free cash flow to firm (FCFF) 118 112 113 102 98 108 107 105 106 106 1681
Discount factor 0.97 0.90 0.83 0.77 0.71 0.66 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.49
PV of FCFF 114 100 94 78 70 71 66 60 56 52 820

Risk- free: 4%

WACC: 8%

Terminal growth: 2%

Enterprise Value (MYR m): 1581.4

+ Cash: 264.5

– Debt: (512.5)

Equity Value (MYR m): 1333.4

No of shares (m): 941.8

Intrinsic Value (MYR): 1.45

ESG discount/premium: 0.11

Target Price: 1.56

Source: RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Recommendation Chart

No image for chart available as per instructions.

Date Recommendation Target Price Price
2025-06-05 Buy 1.56 1.38
2025-05-16 Buy 1.50 1.29
2025-02-20 Buy 1.45 1.23
2024-08-23 Neutral 1.34 1.24
2024-06-10 Buy 1.44 1.28
2024-02-23 Buy 1.41 1.19
2023-11-22 Buy 1.41 1.23
2023-11-09 Buy 1.35 1.18
2023-09-14 Buy 1.38 1.14
2023-05-30 Buy 1.59 1.40
2023-03-13 Buy 1.80 1.51
2023-01-06 Buy 1.88 1.63
2022-11-16 Buy 1.84 1.40
2022-09-06 Buy 1.64 1.28
2022-02-15 Buy 1.92 1.60

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

See important disclosures at the end of this report

See important disclosures at the end of this report

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

  • Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
  • Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
  • Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
  • Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
  • Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
  • Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

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