Duopharma Biotech (DBB MK): Strong Performance and Positive Outlook
On a Solid Footing; Maintain BUY
Malaysia Results Review
Consumer Non-cyclical | Pharmaceuticals
- Keep BUY and DCF-derived MYR1.56 TP, 18% upside and c.2% FY25F yield. Duopharma Biotech booked 2Q25 core net profit of MYR23.7m. This brings 1H25 core profit to MYR53m, at 57% of our and consensus full-year estimates. We deem the results to be in line with expectations, as 2H25 is usually seasonally weaker. Moving forward, the company’s growth should continue to be anchored by the extended contract to supply pharmaceutical products under the approved product purchased list (APPL), and favourable raw material costs.
- Results overview. 2Q25 core profit grew 37.5% YoY, primarily driven by robust sales to the public sector – supported by the expanded contract award under the APPL (with extended numbers of SKUs of 100 products worth MYR684m). GPM expanded 3ppts YoY to 37.4%, likely driven by the easing of key raw material prices – active pharmaceutical ingredient price (API) coupled with the weakening of USD against the MYR.
- A temporary relief from insulin supply contract extension. In May, the Health Ministry (MOH) extended the supply of human insulin for Biocon until the end of Oct 2025. This comes after DBB’s existing contract for the supply and distribution of human insulin was due for renewal at end-April. Following the contract extension, we gather that the distribution of insulin will be carried out on purchase order basis as opposed to contractual basis prior to April, suggesting that the revenue recognition could be erratic until 3Q25. There has been concern over the entry of a new competitor participating in the tender. Should the MOH decide to spilt the contract equally between DBB and its competitor, we expect a potential earnings impact of 6% to our FY26 earnings estimate on the basis of a 10% net margin assumption.
- Outlook. DBB’s prospects should continue to be underpinned by the additional letter of award by MOH for the supply of pharmaceutical products under the APPL contract. A higher budget allocation to the MOH, which should boost DBB’s sales to the public sector (which accounted for c.50% of total sales in 2024). Active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) price normalisation and the weakening of USD should continue to support near-term profitability, in our view.
- Earnings estimates. We make no changes to our estimates as DBB’s results were in line. We continue to like the stock, underpinned by better earnings visibility and sustained consumer demand towards pharmaceutical products. Our unchanged MYR1.56 TP (DCF), which includes an 8% ESG premium, implies 15.5x FY26 P/E, at 0.4SD below its 3-year historical mean of 17x. Key downside risks: Lower-than-expected sales volume, the USD strengthening against the MYR, and higher-than-expected operating costs.
Buy (Maintained)
Target Price (Return): MYR1.56 (18.3%)
Price (Market Cap): MYR1.32 (USD300m)
ESG score: 3.4 (out of 4)
Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD): 0.97m/0.23m
Analyst
Share Performance (%)
YTD | 1m | 3m | 6m | 12m | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Absolute | 5.6 (4.4) | 0.0 | 4.8 | 7.3 | |
Relative | 8.9 (8.6) | (2.8) | 5.0 | 10.2 | |
52-wk Price low/high (MYR): 1.11-1.42 |
Duopharma Biotech – Ord (DBB MK)
Price Close • Relative to FBM KLCI (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg
Forecasts and Valuation
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total turnover (MYRm) | 705 | 814 | 877 | 929 | 972 |
Recurring net profit (MYRm) | 61 | 72 | 93 | 97 | 105 |
Recurring net profit growth (%) | (45.4) | 18.7 | 29.6 | 4.0 | 8.2 |
Recurring P/E (x) | 20.78 | 17.60 | 13.61 | 13.09 | 12.09 |
P/B (x) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
P/CF (x) | 25.84 | 15.21 | 9.65 | 9.89 | 9.38 |
Dividend Yield (%) | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 12.31 | 10.21 | 7.65 | 7.13 | 6.72 |
Return on average equity (%) | 7.8 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.9 |
Net debt to equity (%) | 40.2 | 35.0 | 22.1 | 11.6 | 2.1 |
Overall ESG Score: 3.4 (out of 4)
E Score: 3.4 (EXCELLENT)
S Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
G Score: 3.7 (EXCELLENT)
Please refer to the ESG analysis on the next page
Note:
Small cap stocks are defined as companies with a market capitalisation of less than USD0.5bn.
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Emissions And ESG
Trend analysis
The increase of carbon emission in 2023 was mainly attributed by its inaugural inclusion of Scope 3 emission reporting.
Emissions (tCO2e) | Dec-22 | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Scope 1 | 1,191 | 1,362 | 1,646 | na |
Scope 2 | 38,866 | 38,946 | 38,440 | na |
Scope 3 | – | 187,163 | 140,789 | na |
Total emissions | 40,057 | 227,471 | 180,875 | na |
Source: Company data, RHB
Latest ESG-Related Developments
Pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030, net zero carbon emissions by 2050, and to replace 50% of single-use plastics with biodegradable plastics within its operations by 2026.
ESG Unbundled
Overall ESG Score: 3.4 (out of 4)
Last Updated: 5 June 2025
E Score: 3.4 (EXCELLENT)
DBB has established Net Zero Transition Plan to drive its efforts to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. It intends to replace single-use plastics with biodegradable ones within its operations by 2026.
S Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
DBB has established multiple communication channels (including its quarterly town hall sessions) with employees to make them feel engaged and connected with senior management. The female:male workers ratio stands at 45:55.
G Score: 3.7 (EXCELLENT)
64% of its board members are independent, and 45% are female, exceeding the Malaysian Code on Corporate Governance requirement of 30%. Additionally, DBB provides full disclosures on its directors’ remunerations, including salaries and bonuses, on a named basis. The group holds investor briefings regularly, embodying good transparency and disclosure practices.
Source: RHB
Financial Exhibits
Asia
- Malaysia
- Consumer Non-cyclical
- Duopharma Biotech
- DBB MK
- Buy
Valuation basis
We use DCF-FCFF to value Duopharma.
Key drivers
- Increase in health awareness leading to higher demand for pharmaceutical products;
- Better efficiency from its new plant
Key risks
Downside risks to our call include lower-than-expected sales volumes and stronger USD/MYR.
Company Profile
Duopharma Biotech is the largest local pharmaceutical company by volume and market cap. It produces vitamin C and solutions for diabetes, hepatitis C, cancer, and kidney disease treatments.
Financial summary (MYR)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Recurring EPS | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
DPS | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
BVPS | 0.72 | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.95 |
Return on average equity (%) | 7.8 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.9 |
Valuation metrics
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Recurring P/E (x) | 20.78 | 17.60 | 13.61 | 13.09 | 12.09 |
P/B (x) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
FCF Yield (%) | 1.3 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 8.5 |
Dividend Yield (%) | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 12.31 | 10.21 | 7.65 | 7.13 | 6.72 |
EV/EBIT (x) | 19.03 | 14.82 | 10.25 | 9.57 | 9.12 |
Income statement (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total turnover | 705 | 814 | 877 | 929 | 972 |
Gross profit | 268 | 302 | 359 | 376 | 387 |
EBITDA | 122 | 146 | 185 | 189 | 188 |
Depreciation and amortisation | (43) | (45) | (47) | (48) | (49) |
Operating profit | 79 | 101 | 138 | 140 | 139 |
Net interest | (15) | (21) | (16) | (13) | (6) |
Pre-tax profit | 63 | 80 | 122 | 127 | 132 |
Taxation | (11) | (17) | (29) | (30) | (27) |
Reported net profit | 53 | 63 | 93 | 97 | 105 |
Recurring net profit | 61 | 72 | 93 | 97 | 105 |
Cash flow (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change in working capital | (46) | (34) | (9) | (17) | (19) |
Cash flow from operations | 49 | 83 | 132 | 128 | 135 |
Capex | (33) | (23) | (26) | (27) | (27) |
Cash flow from investing activities | (43) | (27) | (26) | (27) | (27) |
Dividends paid | (9) | (27) | (29) | (29) | (29) |
Cash flow from financing activities | 296 | (89) | (63) | (63) | (63) |
Cash at beginning of period | 158 | 271 | 265 | 307 | 346 |
Net change in cash | 302 | (33) | 43 | 39 | 45 |
Ending balance cash | 459 | 237 | 307 | 346 | 391 |
Balance sheet (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total cash and equivalents | 271 | 265 | 307 | 346 | 391 |
Tangible fixed assets | 582 | 568 | 552 | 535 | 518 |
Total investments | 38 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
Total assets | 1,345 | 1,378 | 1,405 | 1,443 | 1,495 |
Short-term debt | 66 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
Total long-term debt | 481 | 465 | 430 | 396 | 362 |
Total liabilities | 658 | 669 | 632 | 601 | 577 |
Total equity | 687 | 709 | 774 | 842 | 918 |
Total liabilities & equity | 1,345 | 1,378 | 1,405 | 1,443 | 1,495 |
Key metrics
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue growth (%) | 1.1 | 15.5 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 |
Recurrent EPS growth (%) | (45.9) | 18.1 | 29.3 | 4.0 | 8.2 |
Gross margin (%) | 38.1 | 37.1 | 40.9 | 40.5 | 39.8 |
Operating EBITDA margin (%) | 17.3 | 18.0 | 21.1 | 20.3 | 19.4 |
Net profit margin (%) | 7.5 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 10.8 |
Dividend payout ratio (%) | 41.9 | 46.1 | 30.9 | 29.7 | 27.5 |
Capex/sales (%) | 4.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
Interest cover (x) | 4.33 | 3.79 | 6.54 | 7.30 | 14.09 |
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Figure 1: Results snapshot
FYE Dec (MYRm) | 2Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | QoQ (%) | YoY (%) | 1H24 | 1H25 | YoY (%) | Comments |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 218.3 | 262.7 | 221.8 | (15.6) | 1.6 | 411.3 | 484.5 | 17.8 | Topline was stronger YoY supported by the expanded contract award under the APPL contract. Revenue was QoQ weaker due to absence of one-off insulin sales in 1Q25 and the seasonally softer quarter in 2Q25. |
Gross profit | 74.9 | 93.3 | 83.1 | (11.0) | 10.8 | 149.2 | 176.3 | 18.2 | |
GP margin (%) | 34.3 | 35.5 | 37.4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 36.3 | 36.4 | ||
EBITDA | 37.5 | 48.7 | 41.5 | (14.8) | 10.8 | 73.1 | 90.3 | 23.5 | |
EBITDA margin (%) | 17.2 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 17.8 | 18.6 | ||||
Depreciation | 10.1 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 20.3 | 20.2 | 0.5 | |
EBIT | 27.3 | 38.6 | 31.5 | (18.4) | 15.2 | 52.8 | 70.1 | 32.8 | |
EBIT margin (%) | 12.5 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 14.5 | ||||
Finance cost | (6.8) | (6.2) | (6.3) | (1.2) | 7.5 | (13.8) | (12.6) | 8.8 | |
EI/Others | (0.8) | (3.7) | (3.5) | 6.9 | (359.9) | (3.3) | (7.2) | (115.9) | |
Pretax profit | 22.0 | 33.7 | 26.6 | (21.2) | 21.1 | 42.1 | 60.3 | 43.4 | |
Pretax margin (%) | 10.1 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 10.2 | 12.4 | ||||
Tax | (5.3) | (8.1) | (6.4) | 21.2 | (21.0) | (10.1) | (14.5) | (43.4) | |
Effective tax rate (%) | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | ||||
Minority interest | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Nm | Nm | 0.0 | 0.0 | Nm | |
Net profit | 16.7 | 25.6 | 20.2 | (21.2) | 21.1 | 32.0 | 45.8 | 43.4 | |
Core profit | 17.4 | 29.4 | 23.7 | (19.4) | 35.7 | 35.3 | 53.0 | 50.3 | Core earnings were 57% of ours and Street full year estimate |
Net margin (%) | 8.0 | 11.2 | 10.7 | (0.5) | 2.7 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 2.4 |
Source: Company data, RHB
Figure 2: DCF valuation
FYE Dec (MYR m) | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | FY30F | FY31F | FY32F | FY33F | FY34F | Terminal |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NOPAT | 105 | 107 | 110 | 116 | 118 | 125 | 135 | 137 | 139 | 141 | |
+ D&A | 47 | 48 | 49 | 51 | 54 | 56 | 59 | 62 | 66 | 69 | |
– Change in NWC | (9) | (17) | (19) | (15) | (20) | (18) | (18) | (21) | (23) | (24) | |
– CAPEX | (26) | (27) | (27) | (51) | (53) | (56) | (70) | (73) | (77) | (80) | |
Free cash flow to firm (FCFF) | 118 | 112 | 113 | 102 | 98 | 108 | 107 | 105 | 106 | 106 | 1681 |
Discount factor | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
PV of FCFF | 114 | 100 | 94 | 78 | 70 | 71 | 66 | 60 | 56 | 52 | 820 |
Risk- free: 4%
WACC: 8%
Terminal growth: 2%
Enterprise Value (MYR m): 1581.4
+ Cash: 264.5
– Debt: (512.5)
Equity Value (MYR m): 1333.4
No of shares (m): 941.8
Intrinsic Value (MYR): 1.45
ESG discount/premium: 0.11
Target Price: 1.56
Source: RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Recommendation Chart
No image for chart available as per instructions.
Date | Recommendation | Target Price | Price |
---|---|---|---|
2025-06-05 | Buy | 1.56 | 1.38 |
2025-05-16 | Buy | 1.50 | 1.29 |
2025-02-20 | Buy | 1.45 | 1.23 |
2024-08-23 | Neutral | 1.34 | 1.24 |
2024-06-10 | Buy | 1.44 | 1.28 |
2024-02-23 | Buy | 1.41 | 1.19 |
2023-11-22 | Buy | 1.41 | 1.23 |
2023-11-09 | Buy | 1.35 | 1.18 |
2023-09-14 | Buy | 1.38 | 1.14 |
2023-05-30 | Buy | 1.59 | 1.40 |
2023-03-13 | Buy | 1.80 | 1.51 |
2023-01-06 | Buy | 1.88 | 1.63 |
2022-11-16 | Buy | 1.84 | 1.40 |
2022-09-06 | Buy | 1.64 | 1.28 |
2022-02-15 | Buy | 1.92 | 1.60 |
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
See important disclosures at the end of this report
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
- Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
- Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
- Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
- Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
- Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
- Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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- RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not have and have not within the last 12 months had any corporate finance advisory relationship with the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report or any other relationship that may create a potential conflict of interest.
- RHB Bank Berhad, or person associated or connected to it do not have any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, the securities, specified securities based derivatives contracts or units in a collective investment scheme covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
- RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research analysts do not receive any compensation or benefit in connection with the production of this research report or recommendation on the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts.
Analyst Certification
The analyst(s) who prepared this report, and their associates hereby, certify that:
(1) they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for:
Analyst | Company |
---|---|
(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
KUALA LUMPUR
RHB Investment Bank Bhd
Level 3A, Tower One, RHB Centre
Jalan Tun Razak
Kuala Lumpur 50400
Malaysia
Tel: +603 2302 8100
Fax: +603 2302 8134
JAKARTA
PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia
Revenue Tower, 11th Floor, District 8 – SCBD
Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav 52-53
Jakarta 12190
Indonesia
Tel: +6221 5093 9888
Fax: +6221 5093 9777
SINGAPORE
RHB Bank Berhad (Singapore branch)
90 Cecil Street
#04-00 RHB Bank Building
Singapore 069531
Fax: +65 6509 0470