Malaysia Results Review
Maxis (MAXIS MK)
Executing Well On Opex Efficiencies
Target Price (Return): MYR3.72 (+8%)
Price (Market Cap): MYR3.44 (USD6,376m)
ESG score: 3.1 (out of 4)
Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD): 8.23m/1.92m
Analyst
Jeffrey Tan
+603 2302 8112
jeffrey.tan@rhbgroup.com
Share Performance (%)
YTD | 1m | 3m | 6m | 12m | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Absolute | (5.8) | (2.3) | (6.8) | 0.3 | (2.6) |
Relative | (2.5) | (6.5) | (9.6) | 0.5 | 0.3 |
52-wk Price low/high (MYR): 3.12-4.00
Maxis (MAXIS MK) Price Close (Relative to FBM KLCI (RHS)) has shown fluctuations. Over the past year, the price ranged from 3.12 to 4.00 MYR.
- Maintain NEUTRAL, new DCF-based TP of MYR3.72 (from MYR3.82), 8% upside with c.5% yield. Maxis’ 2Q/1H25 results were a slight beat, with continuing good cost restraint driving 3% YTD EBITDA growth. We see some normalisation in cost for 2H25, on seasonality. While the valuation of the stock remains undemanding (-1.8SD from historical EV/EBITDA mean), the uncertain 5G posture continues to mask earnings fundamentals, in our view.
- A slight beat; opex excellence. 2Q25 core PATAMI of MYR398m (+7.3% QoQ, +11.8% YoY) brought 1H25 core PATAMI to MYR769m (+8.5% YTD), at 52% of our and consensus full-year estimates. An expected 4 sen DPS puts 1H25 DPS at 8 sen, with a payout ratio of 82%. Relative to our forecast, the key deviation was the stronger-than-expected efficiency gains, with the 3% opex decline YTD eclipsing the 0.7% service revenue contraction. We see some normalisation in cost in 2H25 alongside a pick-up in capex aligned to project delivery timelines. Management has reaffirmed its FY25 guidance on service revenue and EBITDA, but lifted capex guidance to c.MYR1bn (previously <MYR1bn). Post-results call, we adjust FY25F, FY26F and FY27F core earnings by -0.3%, -1 and -1% on incrementally higher capex assumptions.
- Operational review. Consumer prepaid revenue rebounded after five consecutive quarters of decline, with the rebalancing of the prepaid portfolio. This contributed to a 2% prepaid ARPU uplift QoQ. On steady postpaid and home revenues, consumer converged revenue edged up by 1.4% QoQ. Negotiations with device/handset manufacturers have allowed Maxis to optimise device subsidies, which contributed to the improved cost economics. Enterprise fixed and solutions revenue grew from a low base in the preceding quarter. This offset legacy mobile weakness and contributed to the 2.2% growth YTD. Meanwhile, 5G wholesale cost remains at sub-MYR50m for the quarter.
- Other updates. Management said it continues to engage with the authorities on the expanded scope of the Sales & Service tax (SST) involving tower rental and leasing services, with a worst-case impact assessed at c.1% of annualised EBITDA. Management expects the mobile network operators (MNOs) to potentially come to a landing on a new structure for Digital Nasional (DNB) by the year-end. A longer timeframe is, nonetheless, required for the implementation and execution of the structure. Maxis notes that the latest capital injection of MYR117m each into DNB by the MNOs is intended to sustain the latter’s operations.
- Key downside risks to our call and/or forecasts are greater competition, weaker-than-expected margins and/or dividends, and regulatory setbacks. The opposite circumstances would present upside risks.
Forecasts and Valuation
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total turnover (MYRm) | 10,180 | 10,536 | 10,673 | 11,079 | 11,480 |
Recurring net profit (MYRm) | 1,354 | 1,396 | 1,444 | 1,519 | 1,516 |
Recurring net profit growth (%) | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 5.1 | (0.1) |
Recurring P/E (x) | 19.94 | 19.34 | 18.69 | 17.78 | 17.80 |
P/B (x) | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
P/CF (x) | 10.65 | 9.80 | 8.60 | 8.31 | 8.07 |
Dividend Yield (%) | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.8 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 9.14 | 8.69 | 8.57 | 8.05 | 7.80 |
Return on average equity (%) | 16.4 | 24.0 | 22.7 | 21.8 | 21.4 |
Net debt to equity (%) | 160.2 | 149.4 | 129.4 | 116.3 | 111.9 |
Overall ESG Score: 3.1 (out of 4)
E Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
S Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)
G Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
Please refer to the ESG analysis on the next page
Source: Company data, RHB
Emissions And ESG
Trend analysis
Maxis’ Scope 1 and 2 emissions declined in 2024 due to increased energy reduction initiatives. Overall emissions, however, rose as a result of maiden Scope 3 disclosures.
Emissions (tCO2e)
Dec-22 | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Scope 1 | 4,688 | 4,280 | 3,863 | na |
Scope 2 | 286,224 | 319,837 | 317,452 | na |
Scope 3 | – | – | 10,048 | na |
Total emissions | 290,912 | 324,117 | 331,363 | na |
Source: Company data, RHB
Latest ESG-Related Developments
Maxis has decommissioned legacy network equipment with the installation of off-grid solar power systems at rural base stations across West and East Malaysia.
ESG Unbundled
Overall ESG Score: 3.1 (out of 4)
Last Updated: 15 May 2025
E Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
Maxis is committed to the progressive reduction in overall carbon footprint with proactive measures to raise the efficiency of its network via the use of innovative technologies and energy efficient equipment.
S Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)
Maxis helps in meeting the nation’s digital inclusion agenda as a technology and communications enabler with the aspiration to become Malaysia’s leading converged solutions provider. Its flagship community outreach programme, eKelas, which champions digital learning for students in rural areas has over 70,000 registered students on the eKelas portal.
G Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
The Board is made up of nine directors, five of which are independent. Two directors are women. The percentage of female representation is below the recommended threshold which the Board is hoping to address in the medium term. An in-house investor relations team facilitates management access and organises meetings with the investment community.
ESG Rating History
Source: RHB
Financial Exhibits
Asia
Malaysia
Communications
Maxis
MAXIS MK
Neutral
Valuation basis
DCF (WACC: 8.1%, TG: 0.5%)
Key drivers
- ARPU improvement;
- Stronger growth in enterprise and home/fibre services.
Key risks
- Competition;
- Enterprise execution;
- Higher-than-expected capex;
- Negative regulatory/policy developments
Company Profile
Maxis is a leading converged telecommunications provider in Malaysia. It is also the largest fixed broadband retail provider via wholesale agreements inked with TM and other access providers.
Financial summary (MYR)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Recurring EPS | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
DPS | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.20 |
BVPS | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 0.90 |
Return on average equity (%) | 16.4 | 24.0 | 22.7 | 21.8 | 21.4 |
Valuation metrics
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Recurring P/E (x) | 19.94 | 19.34 | 18.69 | 17.78 | 17.80 |
P/B (x) | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
FCF Yield (%) | 6.4 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 8.7 |
Dividend Yield (%) | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.8 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 9.14 | 8.69 | 8.57 | 8.05 | 7.80 |
EV/EBIT (x) | 19.15 | 15.41 | 15.40 | 14.54 | 14.42 |
Income statement (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total turnover | 10,180 | 10,536 | 10,673 | 11,079 | 11,480 |
Gross profit | 6,149 | 6,501 | 6,569 | 6,921 | 7,183 |
EBITDA | 3,960 | 4,122 | 4,183 | 4,379 | 4,474 |
Depreciation and amortisation | (2,070) | (1,798) | (1,854) | (1,954) | (2,054) |
Operating profit | 1,890 | 2,324 | 2,329 | 2,425 | 2,420 |
Net interest | (446) | (447) | (403) | (401) | (398) |
Pre-tax profit | 1,444 | 1,877 | 1,926 | 2,025 | 2,022 |
Taxation | (452) | (481) | (481) | (506) | (505) |
Reported net profit | 993 | 1,396 | 1,444 | 1,519 | 1,516 |
Recurring net profit | 1,354 | 1,396 | 1,444 | 1,519 | 1,516 |
Cash flow (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change in working capital | 16 | 35 | 136 | 76 | 75 |
Cash flow from operations | 2,535 | 2,754 | 3,138 | 3,249 | 3,343 |
Capex | (813) | (674) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) |
Cash flow from investing activities | (764) | (693) | (960) | (960) | (960) |
Dividends paid | (1,256) | (1,335) | (1,257) | (1,257) | (1,571) |
Cash flow from financing activities | (2,113) | (2,451) | (2,255) | (1,752) | (2,064) |
Cash at beginning of period | 628 | 569 | 464 | 376 | 913 |
Net change in cash | (342) | (390) | (77) | 537 | 319 |
Ending balance cash | 286 | 179 | 387 | 913 | 1,232 |
Balance sheet (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total cash and equivalents | 569 | 464 | 376 | 913 | 1,232 |
Tangible fixed assets | 5,384 | 5,091 | 6,202 | 5,947 | 5,592 |
Total investments | 1,337 | 1,491 | 1,491 | 1,491 | 1,491 |
Total assets | 22,781 | 22,323 | 23,378 | 23,755 | 23,812 |
Short-term debt | 857 | 1,193 | 1,138 | 1,083 | 1,028 |
Total long-term debt | 8,915 | 8,096 | 8,096 | 8,096 | 8,096 |
Total liabilities | 17,037 | 16,417 | 16,534 | 16,649 | 16,762 |
Total equity | 5,744 | 5,906 | 6,844 | 7,105 | 7,051 |
Total liabilities & equity | 22,781 | 22,323 | 23,378 | 23,755 | 23,812 |
Key metrics
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue growth (%) | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
Recurrent EPS growth (%) | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 5.1 | (0.1) |
Gross margin (%) | 60.4 | 61.7 | 61.5 | 62.5 | 62.6 |
Operating EBITDA margin (%) | 38.9 | 39.1 | 39.2 | 39.5 | 39.0 |
Net profit margin (%) | 9.8 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 13.2 |
Dividend payout ratio (%) | 126.5 | 95.6 | 87.0 | 82.8 | 103.6 |
Capex/sales (%) | 8.0 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.7 |
Interest cover (x) | 4.00 | 4.83 | 5.25 | 5.50 | 5.53 |
Source: Company data, RHB
Figure 1: Results review table
FYE Dec (MYRm) | 2QFY24 | 1QFY25 | 2QFY25 | QoQ (%) | YoY (%) | 1HFY24 | 1HFY25 | YoY (%) | Comments |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 2,586.0 | 2,608.0 | 2,562.0 | (1.8) | (0.9) | 5,189.0 | 5,170.0 | (0.4) | Seasonally lower device sales in 2Q25 |
Consumer revenue | 1,815.0 | 1,773.0 | 1,797.0 | 1.4 | (1.0) | 3,619.0 | 3,570.0 | (1.4) | Stronger prepaid revenue QoQ with a 3% QoQ uplift in prepaid ARPU |
Enterprise revenue | 401.0 | 398.0 | 407.0 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 788.0 | 805.0 | 2.2 | Lower base of solutions revenue in 1Q25 offset weaker legacy mobile revenues |
Service revenue | 2,216.0 | 2,171.0 | 2,204.0 | 1.5 | (0.5) | 4,407.0 | 4,375.0 | (0.7) | Enterprise growth was offset by weaker mobile revenue YTD |
EBITDA | 1,046.0 | 1,055.0 | 1,094.0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2,090.0 | 2,149.0 | 2.8 | Strong cost discipline |
EBITDA Margin (%)/Service revenue | 47.2 | 48.6 | 49.6 | 1.0 | 47.4 | 49.1 | |||
Depreciation | (439.0) | (361.0) | (361.0) | 0.0 | (17.8) | (888.0) | (722.0) | (18.7) | |
EBIT | 595.0 | 611.0 | 647.0 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 1,190.0 | 1,258.0 | 5.7 | |
EBIT Margin (%) | 23.0 | 23.4 | 25.3 | 22.9 | 24.3 | ||||
Interest income | 7.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 57.1 | 16.0 | 22.0 | 37.5 | |
Interest expense | (119.0) | (122.0) | (121.0) | (0.8) | 1.7 | (244.0) | (243.0) | (0.4) | |
Pretax profit | 483.0 | 500.0 | 537.0 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 962.0 | 1,037.0 | 7.8 | |
Pretax Margin (%) | 18.7 | 19.2 | 21.0 | 18.5 | 20.1 | ||||
Tax | (127.0) | (129.0) | (139.0) | 7.8 | 9.4 | (253.0) | (268.0) | 5.9 | |
Effective tax rate (%) | 26.3 | 25.8 | 25.9 | 26.3 | 25.8 | ||||
Minority interests | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | – | – | 0.0 | 0.0 | n.m. | |
Net Profit | 356.0 | 371.0 | 398.0 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 709.0 | 769.0 | 8.5 | |
Core Profit | 356.0 | 371.0 | 398.0 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 709.0 | 769.0 | 8.5 | Slightly ahead of our/market expectations |
Net Margin (%) | 13.8 | 14.2 | 15.5 | 13.7 | 14.9 |
Source: Company data
Figure 2: Key operational metrics
2QFY24 | 1QFY25 | 2QFY25 | QoQ (%) | YoY (%) | Comments | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subscribers (m)^ | ||||||
– Prepaid | 7.497 | 7.566 | 7.601 | 0.5 | 1.4 | |
– Postpaid | 5.129 | 5.549 | 5.647 | 1.8 | 10.1 | |
– Wireless Broadband (WBB) | 0.127 | 0.121 | 0.123 | 1.7 | (3.1) | |
– Home Connections | 0.707 | 0.727 | 0.727 | 0.0 | 2.8 | Tight competition |
Net adds (m) | ||||||
– Prepaid | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.04 | >100 | >100 | Still tight competition |
– Postpaid | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.10 | (39.1) | 2.1 | Pre-to post migration with higher take-up of entry level plans |
– Home Connections | 0.015 | 0.004 | 0.000 | n.m. | n.m. | |
ARPU (MYR)^ | ||||||
– Prepaid | 29 | 26 | 27 | 1.9 | (7.3) | Rebalancing of portfolio |
– Postpaid | 68 | 65 | 64 | (0.9) | (5.2) | Bundling and value propositions |
– Blended | 45 | 42 | 43 | 0.5 | (4.7) |
Note: ^market definition
Source: Company data
Recommendation Chart
Date | Recommendation | Target Price | Price |
---|---|---|---|
2025-05-19 | Neutral | 3.82 | 3.68 |
2025-02-18 | Neutral | 3.82 | 3.52 |
2024-11-10 | Neutral | 3.92 | 3.57 |
2024-08-22 | Neutral | 3.86 | 3.62 |
2024-02-23 | Neutral | 4.00 | 3.78 |
2023-11-14 | Neutral | 3.90 | 4.08 |
2023-07-17 | Neutral | 3.78 | 4.09 |
2023-02-24 | Neutral | 4.03 | 3.99 |
2022-11-06 | Neutral | 3.93 | 3.79 |
2022-07-29 | Neutral | 3.93 | 3.67 |
2022-04-29 | Neutral | 3.98 | 3.80 |
2022-02-25 | Neutral | 4.45 | 3.98 |
2022-01-24 | Neutral | 4.75 | 4.33 |
2021-11-01 | Neutral | 4.75 | 4.60 |
2021-08-01 | Neutral | 4.66 | 4.26 |
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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Singapore
This report is issued and distributed in Singapore by RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) which is an exempt capital markets services entity and an exempt financial adviser regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the report.
United States
This report was prepared by RHB is meant for distribution solely and directly to “major” U.S. institutional investors as defined under, and pursuant to, the requirements of Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) via a registered U.S. broker-dealer as appointed by RHB from time to time. Accordingly, any access to this report via Bursa Marketplace or any other Electronic Services Provider is not intended for any party other than “major” US institutional investors (via a registered U.S broker-dealer), nor shall be deemed as solicitation by RHB in any manner. RHB is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States and currently has not appointed a U.S. broker-dealer. Additionally, RHB does not offer brokerage services to U.S. persons. Any order for the purchase or sale of all securities discussed herein must be placed with and through a registered U.S. broker-dealer as appointed by RHB from time to time as required by the Exchange Act Rule 15a-6. For avoidance of doubt, RHB reiterates that it has not appointed any U.S. broker-dealer during the issuance of this report. This report is confidential and not intended for distribution to, or use by, persons other than the recipient and its employees, agents and advisors, as applicable. Additionally, where research is distributed via Electronic Service Provider, the analysts whose names appear in this report are not registered or qualified as research analysts in the United States and are not associated persons of any registered U.S. broker-dealer as appointed by RHB from time to time and therefore may not be subject to any applicable restrictions under Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) rules on communications with a subject company, public appearances and personal trading. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments discussed in this research report may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Information on non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Foreign companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in the United States. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Transactions in foreign markets may be subject to regulations that differ from or offer less protection than those in the United States.
DISCLOSURE OF CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
RHB Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries (including its regional offices) and associated companies, (“RHBIB Group”) form a diversified financial group, undertaking various investment banking activities which include, amongst others, underwriting, securities trading, market making and corporate finance advisory.
As a result of the same, in the ordinary course of its business, any member of the RHBIB Group, may, from time to time, have business relationships with, hold any positions in the securities and/or capital market products (including but not limited to shares, warrants, and/or derivatives), trade or otherwise effect transactions for its own account or the account of its customers or perform and/or solicit investment, advisory or other services from any of the subject company(ies) covered in this research report.
While the RHBIB Group will ensure that there are sufficient information barriers and internal controls in place where necessary, to prevent/manage any conflicts of interest to ensure the independence of this report, investors should also be aware that such conflict of interest may exist in view of the investment banking activities undertaken by the RHBIB Group as mentioned above and should exercise their own judgement before making any investment decisions.
In Singapore, investment research activities are conducted under RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch), and the disclaimers above similarly apply.
Malaysia
Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Aug 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, RHBIB hereby declares that:
1. RHBIB does not have a financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
2. RHBIB is not a market maker in the securities or capital market products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
3. None of RHBIB’s staff or associated person serve as a director or board member* of the subject company(ies) covered in this report
*For the avoidance of doubt, the confirmation is only limited to the staff of research department
Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Aug 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, the Singapore Research department of RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) hereby declares that:
1. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or associated companies do not make a market in any issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
2. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies and its analysts do not have a financial interest (including a shareholding of 1% or more) in the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
3. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research staff or connected persons do not serve on the board or trustee positions of the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
4. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not have and have not within the last 12 months had any corporate finance advisory relationship with the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report or any other relationship that may create a potential conflict of interest.
5. RHB Bank Berhad, or person associated or connected to it do not have any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, the securities, specified securities based derivatives contracts or units in a collective investment scheme covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
6. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research analysts do not receive any compensation or benefit in connection with the production of this research report or recommendation on the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts.
Analyst Certification
The analyst(s) who prepared this report, and their associates hereby, certify that:
(1) they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for:
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(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.