SP Setia (SPSB MK) Price Close vs Relative to FBM KLCI (RHS) Chart:
The chart shows SP Setia’s price performance from August 2024 to August 2025, generally trending downwards from approximately MYR1.40 to MYR1.10. It also plots the relative performance against the FBM KLCI, which shows SP Setia underperforming, with the relative index declining from 119 to 82 over the same period.
Source: Bloomberg
Operating Fundamentals Have Yet To Improve
- Maintain Buy with lower TP of MYR1.35 (from MYR1.72), 23% upside. SP Setia’s 2Q25 results missed expectations as its development earnings were still weak. 1H25 property sales of only MYR1.9bn was slower-than-expected compared to management’s FY25 sales target of MYR4.8bn. We lower our TP to reflect the lagging property sales and weak showings for property development, given its reliance on land sales to support earnings.
- 2Q25 results review. The YoY drop in 2Q25 revenue was largely attributed to lower contributions from land sales as well as reduced revenue from projects in Australia and Vietnam following substantial handovers of completed developments in 2024. 2Q25 EBIT margin was higher at 33% vs 31% in the previous quarter, as 2Q25 saw the recognition of the disposal of Taman Pelangi land worth MYR157m (estimated profit of over MYR100m). 1H25 land sales of MYR224m were much lower compared to MYR989m worth of land sales that were recognised in 1H24 (mainly from Glengowrie and Taman Pelangi Indah 2). Meanwhile, net gearing remained stable at 0.37x, unchanged from the last quarter.
- Better sales in 2Q25. 2Q25 property sales totalled MYR1.186bn vs MYR718m in 1Q25. Of the total property sales of MYR1.9bn in 1H25 (including MYR235m from land sales), 75% came from local projects, while the remainder was from Australia and Vietnam. The central region contributed MYR955m, while the Southern region raked in MYR430m in sales. Setia Alaman and Setia Eco Park in the central region and Atlas Melbourne in Australia were the major sales contributors for 1H25. Sales for JV project Parkside Residence at Federal Hill, launched in early 2025, remained slow – at only MYR28m (vs MYR14m in 1Q25).
- Finally, the first JV for industrial development. The company finally signed key collaboration terms with strategic partner Ally Logistic Property (ALP), Taiwan’s largest warehousing infrastructure developer, to develop a build-to-lease warehouse on a 42-acre parcel of land at Setia Alaman. Pending further details on the JV (equity interest and resulting land disposal), we are uncertain if SP Setia will be able to hit its MYR4.8bn sales target by the year-end. The JV for the Tanjung Kupang land is also taking longer than expected to formalise.
- Forecasts. We make no changes to our earnings forecasts, as 2H typically brings stronger numbers for SP Setia as well as the property industry. Unbilled sales inched up to MYR3.9bn in 2Q25, from MYR3.8bn in 1Q25.
- Lower TP. Our new TP is based on a larger discount to RNAV of 55% (from 45%), with a 0% ESG discount/premium inked in.
Forecasts and Valuation
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total turnover (MYRm) | 4,374 | 5,294 | 4,899 | 4,996 | 5,017 |
Recurring net profit (MYRm) | 299 | 508 | 396 | 421 | 439 |
Recurring net profit growth (%) | 10.3 | 70.2 | (22.0) | 6.2 | 4.3 |
Recurring EPS (MYR) | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
DPS (MYR) | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Recurring P/E (x) | 14.87 | 8.74 | 11.27 | 10.72 | 10.38 |
P/B (x) | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.29 |
Dividend Yield (%) | 1.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Return on average equity (%) | 2.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Net debt to equity (%) | 48.8 | 34.4 | 39.6 | 38.0 | 35.9 |
Trend analysis
SP Setia established the eDew system and digitised the data collection process, and introduced Scope 3 emissions tracking. 2024 will be used as a baseline year for absolute greenhouse gas emissions.
Emissions (tCO2e)
Dec-22 | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Scope 1 | – | 457 | 2,770 | na |
Scope 2 | – | 12,429 | 34,335 | na |
Scope 3 | na | na | 2,016 | na |
Total emissions | na | 12,886 | 39,121 | na |
Source: Company data, RHB
Latest ESG-Related Developments
SP Setia completed its Setia Green Roadmap, with interim targets and actionable steps in place to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The group is also forming a biodiversity policy to address key issues such as land conservation and resource replenishment.
E Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
SP Setia is among the early adopters of ESG, covering aspects from building design to masterplan. The company signed a MoU with the national power company in Apr 2022 for the installation of solar panel systems and EV charging facilities at its upcoming real estate developments.
S Score: 3.2 (EXCELLENT)
Setia Foundation was established in 2000 to help underprivileged Malaysians.
G Score: 2.9 (GOOD)
60% of SP Setia’s board members are independent directors. The company has an in-house investor relations team and holds investor meetings regularly, embodying good transparency and disclosure practices.
ESG Rating History Chart:
The chart displays SP Setia’s ESG rating history from August 2023 to August 2025. The rating consistently remained at 3.0 out of 4 throughout this period, indicating stable performance in ESG aspects.
Source: RHB
Asia
Malaysia
Property
SP Setia
SPSB MK
Buy
Valuation basis
55% discount to RNAV
Key drivers
- i. New property sales;
- ii. Successful de-gearing initiatives.
Key risks
- i. Change in senior management team which could result in a change in business strategy;
- ii. Unexpected slowdown in economic growth.
Company Profile
SP Setia has been the property sector bellwether over the years. The company has a large presence in many key areas in Malaysia. It also has development projects in the UK, Singapore and Australia.
Financial summary (MYR)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Recurring EPS | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
EPS | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
DPS | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
BVPS | 3.55 | 3.59 | 3.63 | 3.68 | 3.73 |
Return on average equity (%) | 2.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Return on average assets (%) | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Valuation metrics
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Recurring P/E (x) | 14.87 | 8.74 | 11.27 | 10.72 | 10.38 |
P/B (x) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Dividend Yield (%) | 1.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 8.69 | 4.75 | 8.23 | 8.05 | 7.83 |
Income statement (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total turnover | 4,374 | 5,294 | 4,899 | 4,996 | 5,017 |
Gross profit | 1,341 | 1,801 | 1,210 | 1,230 | 1,243 |
EBITDA | 1,103 | 1,610 | 1,055 | 1,077 | 1,098 |
Depreciation and amortisation | (40) | (46) | (46) | (46) | (46) |
Operating profit | 1,063 | 1,564 | 1,009 | 1,031 | 1,051 |
Net interest | (349) | (384) | (336) | (325) | (317) |
Pre-tax profit | 656 | 1,066 | 622 | 656 | 684 |
Taxation | (299) | (491) | (174) | (180) | (188) |
Reported net profit | 299 | 520 | 396 | 421 | 439 |
Recurring net profit | 299 | 508 | 396 | 421 | 439 |
Cash flow (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change in working capital | 707 | 1,528 | (1,367) | (159) | (98) |
Cash flow from operations | 1,744 | 2,846 | (238) | 997 | 1,080 |
Capex | 0 | 0 | (20) | (100) | (100) |
Cash flow from investing activities | (4) | 243 | (20) | (180) | (180) |
Dividends paid | (68) | (55) | (120) | (70) | (71) |
Cash flow from financing activities | (1,386) | (2,122) | (340) | (290) | (292) |
Cash at beginning of period | 2,633 | 2,496 | 3,141 | 1,821 | 1,725 |
Net change in cash | 354 | 966 | (598) | 527 | 608 |
Ending balance cash | 2,987 | 3,462 | 2,544 | 2,348 | 2,333 |
Balance sheet (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total cash and equivalents | 2,496 | 3,141 | 1,821 | 1,725 | 1,710 |
Tangible fixed assets | 15,196 | 15,072 | 15,046 | 15,100 | 15,153 |
Intangible assets | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
Total investments | 3,721 | 3,463 | 3,463 | 3,463 | 3,463 |
Total other assets | 548 | 428 | 435 | 523 | 611 |
Total assets | 29,006 | 27,604 | 27,446 | 27,696 | 27,931 |
Short-term debt | 3,043 | 2,204 | 2,054 | 2,004 | 1,954 |
Total long-term debt | 7,102 | 6,383 | 6,183 | 6,033 | 5,883 |
Total liabilities | 13,344 | 11,760 | 11,224 | 11,070 | 10,880 |
Shareholders’ equity | 14,450 | 14,614 | 14,940 | 15,290 | 15,657 |
Minority interests | 1,213 | 1,230 | 1,282 | 1,337 | 1,394 |
Total equity | 15,663 | 15,844 | 16,222 | 16,627 | 17,051 |
Total liabilities & equity | 29,006 | 27,604 | 27,446 | 27,696 | 27,931 |
Key metrics
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue growth (%) | (1.8) | 21.0 | (7.5) | 2.0 | 0.4 |
Recurring net profit growth (%) | 10.3 | 70.2 | (22.0) | 6.2 | 4.3 |
Recurrent EPS growth (%) | 10.2 | 70.1 | (22.4) | 5.1 | 3.2 |
Gross margin (%) | 30.7 | 34.0 | 24.7 | 24.6 | 24.8 |
Recurring net profit margin (%) | 6.8 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.7 |
Dividend payout ratio (%) | 18.3 | 23.1 | 17.7 | 16.8 | 16.3 |
Source: Company data, RHB
FYE Dec (MYRm)
2Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | % QoQ | % YoY | 1H24 | 1H25 | % YoY | Comments | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover | 1,494.6 | 770.7 | 943.7 | 22% | -37% | 2,970.5 | 1,714.4 | -42% | The YoY decline in revenue was mainly due to lower contributions from land sales as well as reduced revenue from projects in Australia and Vietnam following substantial handovers of completed developments in 2024. |
EBIT | 597.0 | 235.3 | 310.6 | 32% | -48% | 876.2 | 545.9 | -38% | |
EBIT margin (%) | 39.9 | 30.5 | 32.9 | 29.5 | 31.8 | EBIT and EBIT margins were partly lifted by the recognition of MYR167m worth of land sales at Taman Pelangi in Johor. | |||
Net int inc/(exp) | (83.9) | (85.8) | (80.2) | -7% | -4% | (171.3) | (185.2) | 8% | |
Associate | (93.0) | (12.8) | (37.7) | 194% | -59% | (109.7) | (144.9) | 32% | |
Pre-tax profit | 410.5 | 141.5 | 195.7 | 38% | -52% | 591.7 | 337.1 | -43% | |
PBT margin (%) | 27.5 | 18.4 | 20.7 | 19.9 | 19.7 | ||||
Taxation | (156.5) | (52.1) | (74.5) | 43% | -52% | (243.9) | (246.0) | 1% | |
Effective tax rate (%) | 38.1 | 36.8 | 38.1 | 41.2 | 73.0 | ||||
Net profit | 295.0 | 67.0 | 99.8 | 49% | -66% | 372.4 | 166.8 | -55% | |
Core net profit | 248.3 | 62.2 | 97.0 | 56% | -61% | 319.8 | 159.2 | -50% | Below expectations |
Core net margin (%) | 16.6 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 9.3 | ||||
EPS (sen) | 6.3 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 7.5 | ||||
NTA / shr (RM) | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | ||||
DPS (sen) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Source: Company data, RHB
Projects
Remaining landbank (acres) | Remaining GDV (MYR m) | Stake | NPV (@ 10%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Central Region | ||||
Setia Alam | 133 | 1,294 | 100% | 90.5 |
Setia City | 64 | 5,234 | 100% | 82.1 |
Setia Alaman | 258 | 1,793 | 100% | 60.4 |
Setia Ecohill | 165 | 1,821 | 100% | 80.1 |
Setia EcoHill 2 | 588 | 3,246 | 100% | 116.9 |
Glengowrie | 305 | 2,160 | 100% | 40.0 |
Setia Mayuri | 108 | 736 | 100% | 44.8 |
Setia Eco Park | 128 | 2,231 | 50% | 68.6 |
Precinct Arundina @ Setia Eco Park | 19 | 258 | 100% | 16.1 |
Setia Eco Glades | 24 | 783 | 70% | 16.8 |
Setia Safiro | 9 | 179 | 70% | 7.0 |
Setia Eco Templer | 37 | 833 | 100% | 46.7 |
Setia Warisan Tropika | 60 | 626 | 100% | 34.8 |
Setia Eco City | 4 | 2,204 | 100% | 82.7 |
Setia Federal Hill | 51 | 21,135 | 100% | 142.5 |
Setia Federal hill JV | 1 | 751 | 51% | 5.8 |
Setia Alamsari North | 133 | 986 | 100% | 41.6 |
Setia Alamsari South | 226 | 2,877 | 100% | 103.5 |
Putrajaya | 156 | 362 | 60% | 11.4 |
Setia Trio | – | – | 70% | 0.0 |
Bandar Kinrara | 38 | 2,465 | 51% | 84.1 |
Setia Bayuemas (I&P) | 140 | 2,228 | 52% | 53.1 |
Setia Bayuemas (PG) | 51 | 373 | 100% | 18.7 |
Alam Damai | 19 | 545 | 70% | 19.1 |
Alam Impian | 224 | 7,115 | 100% | 228.6 |
Temasya Glenmarie | 65 | 2,151 | 66% | 76.2 |
Northern Region | ||||
Setia Fontaines | 1,109 | 12,018 | 100% | 268.2 |
Setia Eco Forest @ Tj Bungah | 35 | 960 | 100% | 36.2 |
Setia Pearl Island | 21 | 635 | 100% | 20.3 |
Bukit Dumbar | 6 | 539 | 100% | 13.0 |
Setia Sky Vista | 13 | 450 | 100% | 15.0 |
Setia Sky Hill | 4 | 38 | 100% | 0.8 |
Seri Bayu | 13 | 240 | 100% | 7.6 |
Setia Raintree Residence | 21 | 200 | 100% | 5.5 |
Setia Sky Ville | 2 | 324 | 100% | 9.0 |
Setia Miracca (Setia Sky Cubes) | 2 | 235 | 100% | 6.8 |
Pangsapuri Rimbun, Balik Pulau | 3 | 19 | 100% | 0.3 |
Southern Region | ||||
Setia Indah Johor | 9 | 269 | 100% | 17.1 |
Setia Tropika | 92 | 1,108 | 100% | 61.9 |
Setia Eco Cascadia | 59 | 1,361 | 100% | 63.8 |
Setia Business Park II | 44 | 394 | 100% | 13.5 |
Bukit Indah Johor | 31 | 449 | 100% | 20.9 |
Setia Eco Gardens | 189 | 1,303 | 70% | 49.0 |
Setia Business Park I | 50 | 280 | 70% | 7.0 |
Taman Perling | 17 | 334 | 100% | 13.0 |
Taman Pelangi | 6 | 735 | 100% | 23.2 |
Taman Rinting | 96 | 736 | 89% | 24.4 |
Taman Pelangi Indah I | 165 | 2,043 | 100% | 61.8 |
Mukim Tanjung Kupang | 307 | 1,390 | 100% | 13.2 |
Mukim Serkat, Pontian | 55 | 20 | 100% | 0.1 |
Eastern Region | ||||
Aeropod @Tg Aru | 35 | 1,390 | 100% | 4.3 |
Lintas Land | 9 | 1,689 | 100% | 3.5 |
Overseas | ||||
383 La Trobe Melbourne | 1 | 2,463 | 100% | 96.9 |
Battersea Power Station, UK | 18 | 28,201 | 40% | 84.3 |
EcoLakes, My Phuoc | 22 | 493 | 57% | 4.1 |
EcoXuan, Lai Thieu | 10 | 750 | 95% | 27.1 |
Setia Izumisano City Centre | 5 | 2,488 | 100% | 7.5 |
Sydney | 0 | 655 | 100% | 25.8 |
Source: Company, RHB
Unbilled sales
Total: 187.7
Shareholders’ funds (incl. RCPS-is): 2,764.9
Total RNAV: 14,072.9
Enlarged share cap (incl. RCPS-I A&C): 16,837.8
RNAV/share: 5,631.7
Discount: 2.99
Intrinsic value: 55%
ESG premium: 1.35
Target price: 0%
Source: Company, RHB
Recommendation & Target Price Chart:
The chart displays SP Setia’s price performance (August 2020 – February 2025) along with RHB’s recommendations and target prices. The price fluctuated, hitting lows around MYR0.60 and highs around MYR1.50. RHB’s recommendations mostly stayed in “Buy” or “Neutral” zones, with target prices varying from MYR0.60 to MYR1.72.
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
Date | Recommendation | Target Price | Price |
---|---|---|---|
2025-05-22 | Buy | 1.72 | 1.20 |
2025-03-03 | Buy | 1.72 | 1.33 |
2024-11-26 | Buy | 1.72 | 1.34 |
2024-08-15 | Buy | 1.72 | 1.29 |
2024-05-16 | Buy | 1.72 | 1.53 |
2024-03-25 | Buy | 1.56 | 1.35 |
2024-03-01 | Buy | 1.24 | 0.85 |
2023-11-24 | Neutral | 0.93 | 0.81 |
2023-08-17 | Buy | 0.93 | 0.86 |
2023-07-05 | Buy | 0.75 | 0.57 |
2023-05-17 | Neutral | 0.60 | 0.53 |
2023-04-25 | Neutral | 0.64 | 0.58 |
2022-04-20 | Buy | 1.48 | 1.22 |
2022-02-28 | Neutral | 1.28 | 1.28 |
2022-01-11 | Neutral | 1.28 | 1.29 |
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
1
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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4. RHBIB did not receive compensation for investment banking or corporate finance services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
5. RHBIB did not receive compensation or benefit (including gift and special cost arrangement e.g. company/issuer-sponsored and paid trip) in relation to the production of this report.
Indonesia
Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Aug 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia hereby declares that:
1. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia and its investment analysts, does not have any interest in the securities of the subject company(ies) covered in this report. For the avoidance of doubt, interest in securities include the following:
- a) Holding directly or indirectly, individually or jointly own/hold securities or entitled for dividends, interest or proceeds from the sale or exercise of the subject company’s securities covered in this report*;
- b) Being bound by an agreement to purchase securities or has the right to transfer the securities or has the right to pre subscribe the securities*.
- c) Being bound or required to buy the remaining securities that are not subscribed/placed out pursuant to an Initial Public Offering*.
- d) Managing or jointly with other parties managing such parties as referred to in (a), (b) or (c) above.
2. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia is not a market maker in the securities or capital market products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
3. None of PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia’s staff** or associated person serve as a director or board member* of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
4. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia did not receive compensation for investment banking or corporate finance services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
5. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia** did not receive compensation or benefit (including gift and special cost arrangement e.g. company/issuer-sponsored and paid trip) in relation to the production of this report:
Notes:
*The overall disclosure is limited to information pertaining to PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia only.
**The disclosure is limited to Research staff of PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia only.
Singapore
Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Aug 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, the Singapore Research department of RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) hereby declares that:
1. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or associated companies do not make a market in any issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
2. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies and its analysts do not have a financial interest (including a shareholding of 1% or more) in the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
3. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research staff or connected persons do not serve on the board or trustee positions of the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
4. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not have and have not within the last 12 months had any corporate finance advisory relationship with the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report or any other relationship that may create a potential conflict of interest.
5. RHB Bank Berhad, or person associated or connected to it do not have any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, the securities, specified securities based derivatives contracts or units in a collective investment scheme covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
6. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research analysts do not receive any compensation or benefit in connection with the production of this research report or recommendation on the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts.
Analyst Certification
The analyst(s) who prepared this report, and their associates hereby, certify that:
(1) they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for:
Analyst | Company |
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(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
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