Press Metal (PMAH MK): Tailwinds From Alumina Cost Relief And Tariff Delay
Analyst
Iftaar Hakim Rusli
+603 2302 8114
iftaar.hakim.rusli@rhbgroup.com
Target Price (Return): MYR6.26 (+12%)
Price (Market Cap): MYR5.60 (USD10,955m)
ESG score: 3.4 (out of 4)
Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD): 21.4m/5.04m
Share Performance (%)
YTD | 1m | 3m | 6m | 12m | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Absolute | 14.3 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 13.1 |
Relative | 18.3 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 15.4 |
52-wk Price low/high (MYR) | 4.25-5.64 |
Chart: Press Metal (PMAH MK) – Price Close • Relative to FBM KLCI (RHS) (Visual representation not included as per instructions)
Source: Bloomberg
- BUY, new MYR6.26 TP from MYR6.33, 12% upside with c.1% FY25F yield. Press Metal should book stronger QoQ earnings for 2Q25, mainly driven by moderating alumina prices – although this may be offset by a lower London Metal Exchange (LME) ASP. We like PMAH for its low-cost structure, vertical integration, and growing share of value-added products that command higher margins. The counter is trading at a reasonable 22x FY26F P/E (5-year historical mean: 24x). This report marks the transfer of coverage on the stock to Iftaar Hakim Rusli.
- PMAH is expected to announce 2Q25 results on 21 Aug. We expect core PAT to grow QoQ to MYR480-520m, albeit below our estimates – mainly driven by the alumina price easing to USD350/tonne (-34% QoQ). This takes its alumina-to-aluminium cost ratio to 14%, below the 3-year historical average of 18%. However, this may be offset by the lower 2Q25 LME price of USD2,446/tonne (-7% QoQ) and Main Japanese Port or MJP premium of USD127/tonne (-38% QoQ). YoY, we expect to see somewhat mixed earnings (-6% to +2% YoY), as lower alumina costs (-19% YoY) would be offset by softer LME (-3% YoY) and higher carbon anode prices (+28% YoY).
- Tariff delay supports sentiment. While the recent 90-day delay in the US tariff escalation against China does not directly impact PMAH, it should alleviate near-term downside risks to China’s economy and industrial demand. Since China consumes 55-60% of the world’s aluminium, the delay should lend support to LME prices moving forward. Note: PMAH’s exposure to the US affected just 3% of its FY24 revenue.
- FX risks linger. The tariff delay may result in a stronger MYR, which is a slight negative, in our view, as over 90% of PMAH products are exported. Based on our sensitivity analysis, a 2% appreciation in the MYR could lower earnings by an estimated 5%, assuming no hedging is done.
- For the rest of 2025, we expect aluminium prices to be relatively stable, supported by subsiding geopolitical uncertainties. As such, we maintain our 2025 LME aluminium price at USD2,500/tonne (YTD: USD2,549/tonne). Global production remains subdued (+1% YoY in 1H25), as China nears its 45m-tonne production cap (1Q25: 44m tonnes). Outside China, new capacity is limited, especially in the US, where smelters face rising competition for electricity from data centres, fuelling the “aluminium vs Al” debate.
- All in, we cut FY25-27F earnings by 11%, 9% and 11% after accounting for FX assumptions and depreciation rates as well as tweaking alumina cost assumptions slightly by 3%, to be more conservative (YTD: USD421/tonne). We maintain our assumptions for LME and carbon anode prices, for now.
- Our new DCF-based TP of MYR6.26 includes an 8% ESG premium, as PMAH’S ESG score is 3.4 out of 4 (country median: 3.0).
Forecasts and Valuation
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total turnover (MYRm) | 13,805 | 14,910 | 15,425 | 15,477 | 15,567 |
Recurring net profit (MYRm) | 1,241 | 1,858 | 1,845 | 2,057 | 2,122 |
Recurring net profit growth (%) | (11.4) | 49.7 | (0.7) | 11.5 | 3.1 |
Recurring P/E (x) | 37.19 | 24.84 | 25.01 | 22.43 | 21.75 |
P/B (x) | 6.7 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.6 |
P/CF (x) | 17.43 | 19.27 | 19.04 | 15.67 | 15.98 |
Dividend Yield (%) | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 21.14 | 18.36 | 15.74 | 13.76 | 13.47 |
Return on average equity (%) | 17.9 | 22.9 | 20.2 | 19.6 | 17.8 |
Net debt to equity (%) | 37.8 | 22.9 | 10.6 | net cash | net cash |
Overall ESG Score: 3.4 (out of 4)
E Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)
S Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)
G Score: 3.7 (EXCELLENT)
Please refer to the ESG analysis on the next page
Source: Company data, RHB
Emissions And ESG
Trend analysis
In FY23, PMAH’s total operational greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 9% YoY, due to the expansion in renewable energy sourcing and generation as well as operational efficiency improvements and enhancements.
Emissions (tCO2e)
Dec-22 | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Scope 1 | 2,221 | 2,172 | na | na |
Scope 2 | 2,978 | 2,122 | na | na |
Scope 3 | 7,839 | 7,513 | na | na |
Total emissions | 13,037 | 11,807 | na | na |
Source: Company data, RHB
Latest ESG-Related Developments
Press Metal Bintulu was awarded the World Sustainability Leadership Award by the Premier of Sarawak, in recognition of its outstanding contributions in the field of sustainability.
Press Metal is still a constituent of the FTSE4Good Bursa Malaysia Index. Its MSCI rating was upgraded to “A” from “BBB” in Oct 2023.
It has introduced responsible sourcing standards to align its procurement practices with sustainability goals.
ESG Unbundled
Overall ESG Score: 3.4 (out of 4)
Last Updated: 26 Feb 2025
E Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)
Press Metal Bintulu was awarded the World Sustainability Leadership Award by the Premier of Sarawak in recognition of its outstanding contributions in the field of sustainability. Press Metal has also been included as a constituent of FTSE4Good Bursa Malaysia Index in 2022 and their MSCI rating was upgraded to “A” from “BBB” in October 2023.
S Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)
PMAH recorded two consecutive years of zero workplace injuries and fatalities, thanks to its regular occupational health and safety training programmes and continuous efforts to strive for a work-life balance for all employees.
G Score: 3.7 (EXCELLENT)
There are solid transparency levels, as accorded by the group’s reporting framework and management’s regular dialogue with investors. PMAH’s sustainability reporting is prepared in line with the GRI Standards.
ESG Rating History
Source: RHB
Financial Exhibits
Asia
Malaysia
Basic Materials
Press Metal
PMAH MK
Buy
Financial summary (MYR)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Recurring EPS | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.26 |
DPS | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
BVPS | 0.84 | 1.03 | 1.19 | 1.36 | 1.54 |
Return on average equity (%) | 17.9 | 22.9 | 20.2 | 19.6 | 17.8 |
Valuation basis
DCF
Valuation metrics
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Recurring P/E (x) | 37.19 | 24.84 | 25.01 | 22.43 | 21.75 |
P/B (x) | 6.7 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.6 |
FCF Yield (%) | 4.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
Dividend Yield (%) | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 21.14 | 18.36 | 15.74 | 13.76 | 13.47 |
EV/EBIT (x) | 29.50 | 25.43 | 21.16 | 18.30 | 18.26 |
Key drivers
PMAH’s proven low-cost model helps to keep its smelters in the first quartile of the global production cost curve. Separately, the bottoming out of aluminium prices and weak MYR should directly boost its earnings.
Key risks
- Plunge in aluminium prices and a sharp weakening of the USD may affect profitability;
- Any interruption in power supply to its smelter may damage machinery and disrupt operations;
- COVID-19’s prolonged incidence could undermine global economic growth and, consequently, primary aluminium demand.
Company Profile
Press Metal is a Malaysia-based aluminium company with an extensive global presence. The group has a downstream extrusion operation that is integrated with its greenfield aluminium smelting plants in Mukah and Samalaju in Sarawak, which have an annual combined capacity of 1,080,000 tonnes. It also operates aluminium extrusion plants in Malaysia and China.
Income statement (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total turnover | 13,805 | 14,910 | 15,425 | 15,477 | 15,567 |
Gross profit | 2,295 | 2,830 | 2,925 | 3,194 | 3,172 |
EBITDA | 2,312 | 2,630 | 3,003 | 3,330 | 3,294 |
Depreciation and amortisation | (655) | (731) | (769) | (825) | (864) |
Operating profit | 1,657 | 1,899 | 2,234 | 2,504 | 2,430 |
Net interest | (219) | (155) | (80) | (60) | (42) |
Pre-tax profit | 1,646 | 2,303 | 2,496 | 2,784 | 2,833 |
Taxation | (128) | (179) | (246) | (270) | (265) |
Reported net profit | 1,215 | 1,766 | 1,845 | 2,057 | 2,122 |
Recurring net profit | 1,241 | 1,858 | 1,845 | 2,057 | 2,122 |
Cash flow (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change in working capital | 372 | (752) | (451) | (314) | (462) |
Cash flow from operations | 2,647 | 2,395 | 2,423 | 2,945 | 2,887 |
Capex | (424) | (61) | (844) | (852) | (861) |
Cash flow from investing activities | (706) | (845) | (779) | (785) | (792) |
Dividends paid | (577) | (577) | (554) | (617) | (636) |
Cash flow from financing activities | (1,537) | (1,391) | (1,133) | (1,077) | (1,078) |
Cash at beginning of period | 599 | 1,228 | 1,509 | 2,100 | 3,242 |
Net change in cash | 405 | 159 | 511 | 1,083 | 1,017 |
Ending balance cash | 1,003 | 1,362 | 2,020 | 3,183 | 4,260 |
Balance sheet (MYRm)
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total cash and equivalents | 1,228 | 1,509 | 2,100 | 3,242 | 4,302 |
Tangible fixed assets | 7,216 | 7,030 | 7,104 | 7,131 | 7,127 |
Total investments | 1,887 | 2,050 | 2,392 | 2,732 | 3,177 |
Total assets | 15,366 | 16,634 | 17,800 | 19,251 | 20,778 |
Short-term debt | 1,331 | 1,842 | 1,842 | 1,842 | 1,842 |
Total long-term debt | 3,068 | 2,028 | 1,528 | 1,128 | 728 |
Total liabilities | 6,970 | 6,329 | 5,799 | 5,352 | 4,947 |
Total equity | 8,396 | 10,305 | 12,002 | 13,899 | 15,831 |
Total liabilities & equity | 15,366 | 16,634 | 17,800 | 19,251 | 20,778 |
Key metrics
Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue growth (%) | (12.0) | 8.0 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
Recurrent EPS growth (%) | (13.2) | 49.7 | (0.7) | 11.5 | 3.1 |
Gross margin (%) | 16.6 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 20.6 | 20.4 |
Operating EBITDA margin (%) | 16.7 | 17.6 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 21.2 |
Net profit margin (%) | 8.8 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 13.6 |
Dividend payout ratio (%) | 47.5 | 32.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
Capex/sales (%) | 3.1 | 0.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
Interest cover (x) | 6.83 | 8.71 | 15.42 | 19.75 | 21.93 |
Source: Company data, RHB
Figure 1: Key assumptions
FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New | Old | Var | New | Old | Var | New | Old | Var | |
Aluminium ASP (USD) | 2,500 | 2500 | 0.0% | 2,520 | 2520 | 0.0% | 2,550 | 2550 | 0.0% |
Alumina cost (USD/tonne) | 400 | 390 | 2.6% | 390 | 380 | 2.6% | 380 | 380 | 0.0% |
Carbon anode cost (CNY/tonne) | 4,680 | 4680 | 0.0% | 4,300 | 4300 | 0.0% | 4,300 | 4300 | 0.0% |
USD/MYR | 4.34 | 4.4 | -1.3% | 4.29 | 4.29 | 0.0% | 4.25 | 4.3 | -1.2% |
Source: RHB
Figure 2: Aluminium vs alumina price trends
Trend data from chart: LME Aluminium, Alumina, Alumina to Alu cost ratio.
Source: Bloomberg, RHB
Figure 3: Trend of China’s carbon anode prices (CNY/tonne)
Trend data from chart: China carbon anode.
Source: Bloomberg, RHB
Figure 4: DCF valuation
FYE Dec (MYRm) | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | FY30F | FY31F | FY32F | FY33F | FY34F | Terminal |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NOPAT | 1,979 | 2,228 | 2,160 | 2,279 | 2,196 | 2,359 | 2,392 | 2,456 | 2,469 | 2,483 | |
+ D&A | 769 | 825 | 864 | 902 | 938 | 973 | 1,007 | 1,039 | 1,070 | 1,100 | |
– Change in NWC | (109) | 26 | (17) | 21 | 9 | (19) | (2) | (7) | (4) | (4) | |
– CAPEX | (844) | (852) | (861) | (869) | (878) | (887) | (896) | (905) | (914) | (923) | |
Free cash flow to firm (FCFF) | 1,796 | 2,227 | 2,147 | 2,332 | 2,265 | 2,426 | 2,501 | 2,584 | 2,621 | 2,656 | 60,088 |
Discount factor | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
PV of FCFF | 1,710 | 1,986 | 1,793 | 1,825 | 1,660 | 1,666 | 1,609 | 1,556 | 1,479 | 1,404 | 31,758 |
Risk-free: 3%
WACC: 7%
Terminal growth: 2%
Enterprise value (MYRm): 48,446
+ Cash: 2,100
– Debt: -3,371
– MI: -2,234
+ JV/Associates
JAA (20x P/E): 1,035
PMBT (PMAH 18% stakes): 538
Sunstone (20x P/E): 819
Equity value (MYRm): 47,333
No of shares (m): 8,240
Intrinsic value (MYR): 5.79
ESG discount/premium: 0.46
TP: 6.26
Source: RHB
Recommendation Chart
Categories: Buy, Neutral, Sell, Trading Buy, Take Profit, Not Rated
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
Date | Recommendation | Target Price | Price |
---|---|---|---|
2025-05-23 | Buy | 6.3 | 5.1 |
2025-02-28 | Buy | 6.5 | 5.1 |
2025-02-27 | Buy | 6.4 | 5.3 |
2024-12-01 | Buy | 6.4 | 4.6 |
2024-10-03 | Buy | 6.3 | 5.0 |
2024-08-30 | Buy | 6.5 | 5.0 |
2024-07-18 | Buy | 6.7 | 5.5 |
2024-05-31 | Neutral | 5.1 | 5.6 |
2024-02-29 | Neutral | 4.9 | 4.7 |
2023-11-29 | Buy | 5.5 | 4.9 |
2023-08-30 | Buy | 5.7 | 4.9 |
2023-05-31 | Buy | 5.4 | 4.6 |
2023-05-21 | Buy | 5.7 | 4.8 |
2023-02-27 | Buy | 6.0 | 5.2 |
2023-02-03 | Buy | 6.2 | 5.4 |
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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