TA SECURITIES
A MEMBER OF THE TA GROUP
COMPANY UPDATE
Friday, August 15, 2025
FBMKLCI: 1,581.05
Sector: Power & Utilities
THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY*
Samaiden Group Berhad
Bumper Quarter Ahead?
Last Traded: RM1.21
Result preview
Samaiden is due to release its 4QFY25 result in the final week of August. We expect progress of current projects to pick up further, which may potentially lead to another record-breaking quarter. To recap, key ongoing utility-scale projects include the:
- 10MWac Bahau Power CGPP project
- 14MWac Legasi Greem Power CGPP project
- 30MWac Nextenaga LSS4 project
- 10MWac Pax RE LSS5 project.
- 27.6MWac GVU LSS5 project.
The two CGPP projects are due for completion by August and September 2025, while the Nextenaga LSS4 project – which was awarded on a fast-track basis – is due for completion by January 2026. As such, we expect these projects to contribute meaningfully to the upcoming 4QFY25 result. In addition, we expect some margin improvement as the CGPP projects’ panel installation phase is expected to pick up in earnest during the quarter.
In summary, we estimate 4QFY25 earnings to come in at between RM6mn-8mn, representing between 33%-78% QoQ core earnings growth and 30%-73% YoY earnings growth. This is estimated to bring FY25F core net profit to between RM19mn-21mn, a growth of 27%-41% YoY.
Solid orderbook and replenishment prospects
We estimate SAMAIDEN’s latest outstanding orderbook at RM472mn, representing 2.1x the group’s FY24 revenue. SAMAIDEN is targeting to hit a RM1bn orderbook with the next 12 months, which will be supported by prospective job wins under LSS5 and upcoming EPCC contracts under the LSS5+ bidding cycle, which entail an aggregate 4GW solar capacity to be constructed with estimated EPCC potential of RM12bn-14bn. We expect LSS6 to be launched by year-end, entailing potentially another 2GW capacity auction. So far, SAMAIDEN has secured two EPCC jobs under LSS5 with aggregate capacity of 37.6MWac and project value of RM146mn. The group is targeting to maintain its 10% share of LSS EPCC jobs.
Proactive cost management
SAMAIDEN has locked in solar modules to meet its requirement (for own asset construction) to take advantage of the current record low prices of ~USD0.09/watt. Given this proactive cost management, we believe PIRR is likely to remain intact for SAMAIDEN’s upcoming solar assets (CGPP and LSS5), notwithstanding any potential increase in market solar module prices in the future.
For the EPCC segment, we gather that contract terms and conditions allow for a pass-through of fluctuations in EPCC cost beyond a 5-10% range of the original proposals, wherein the proposals itself, factors in provisions beyond prevailing component costs at the time of proposal submissions. These are among
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Bloomberg Code | SAMAIDEN MK |
| Stock Code | 0223 |
| Listing | Main Market |
| Share Cap (mn) | 450.3 |
| Market Cap (RMmn) | 544.9 |
| 52-wk Hi/Lo (RM) | 1.42/0.995 |
| 12-mth Avg Daily Vol (‘000 shrs) | 480.6 |
| Estimated Free Float (%) | 42.4 |
| Beta | 1.3 |
| Major Shareholders (%) | |
| Chow Pui Hee | 29.8 |
| Chudenko Corp | 9.5 |
| Oversea-Chinese Bank | 8.6 |
| Forecast Revision (%) | ||
|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | |
| Forecast Revision (%) | 9.9 | 3.6 |
| Core Net Profit (RM mn) | 19.5 | 23.6 |
| Consensus | 19.8 | 25.6 |
| TA/Consensus (%) | 98.5 | 92.4 |
| Previous Rating | Buy (Maintained) | |
| Consensus Target Price (RM) | 1.50 | |
| Financial Indicators | ||
|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | |
| Net Debt/Equity (x) | net cash | net cash |
| ROA (%) | 7.0 | 6.6 |
| ROE (%) | 12.9 | 13.5 |
| NTA/Share (RM) | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| P/NTA (x) | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| Share Performance | ||
|---|---|---|
| Price Change (%) | SAMAIDEN | FBMKLCI |
| 1 mth | (4.7) | 2.8 |
| 3 mth | 9.0 | (0.2) |
| 6 mth | (6.9) | (0.7) |
| 12 mth | 3.4 | (1.9) |
[Chart: (12-Mth) Share Price relative to the FBMKLCI]
Source: Bloomberg
contingency measures undertaken after having seen the industry being negatively impacted during LSS4 project execution when solar module prices spiked post-Covid.
Figure 1: Solar module price trend
[Chart: Solar module price trend (USD per Watt) from Aug-21 to Jun-25]
Source: Bloomberg, TA Securities
New version of NEM contemplated
Based on recent newsflows, the government is currently reviewing the Net Energy Metering (NEM) program that expired end-June 2025. A new scheme is being contemplated, which might be a hybrid between the NEM and Self Consumption (SELCO) scheme, or possibly a new program altogether. This could be a catalyst for rooftop solar, depending on the final structure and mechanism. Currently, rooftop solar is estimated to account for 25% of SAMAIDEN’s orderbook.
Earnings revision
Given our expectation of stronger project progress and slightly better margins than previously anticipated, we raise FY25F/26F/27F net profit by 10%/4%/1%.
Net value accretion from three new FiT wins
SAMAIDEN recently won the bid to develop three bioenergy plants with aggregate capacity of 18MW under the latest Feed in Tariff 2.0 (FiT2.0) bidding cycle. Our channel checks, however, suggests that SAMAIDEN might consider surrendering one of the previously won FiT quotas for a 7MW biomass plant in Tangkak, Johor, which will be replaced by a new quota under FiT2.0, due its decision to shift to a new project location (albeit still within the same district). Nevertheless, on a net basis, value of the three new FiT2.0 plants, estimated at an aggregate RM61mn (equity value), more than offsets the loss of the original 7MW Tangkak biomass project (estimated equity value of RM37mn).
Figure 2: Summary of FiT2.0 quotas secured
| Subsidiaries | Type Location | Stake | Installed Capacity (MW) | Net Capacity (MW) | Basic FiT Rate (RM/kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Green Solutions | Biogas Bachok, Kelantan | 100% | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.2515 |
| Legasi Green Resources Sdn | Biomass Tangkak, Johor | 88% | 5.50 | 4.84 | 0.2880 |
| Sumas Energy Sdn Bhd | Biomass Kemaman, Terengga | 51% | 11.00 | 5.61 | 0.2880 |
| Total | 18.00 | 11.95 |
Source: Company, TA Securities
Figure 3: Summary of asset pipeline
| Stake | Assets | Type | Capacity (MW) | Net Capacity (MW) | COD | PPA (years) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operational capacity | ||||||
| 100% | Sunway Nexis | Solar | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2022 | 20 |
| 100% | Yakult | Solar | 0.7 | 0.7 | 2024 | 20 |
| Total operational | 1.2 | 1.2 | ||||
| Upcoming capacity | ||||||
| 100% | Biomass (Tangkak) | Biomass | 7.0 | 7.0 | Quota might be surrendered | 21 |
| 60% | Biogas (Bachok) | Biogas | 1.2 | 0.7 | 2026 | 21 |
| 100% | CGPP-2 (Legasi Green Energy) | Solar | 13.4 | 13.4 | 2025 | 21 |
| 30% | CGPP-I (Bright Winter) | Solar | 29.9 | 9.0 | 2025 | 21 |
| 100% | LSS5 (Pasir Mas) | Solar | 100.0 | 100.0 | 2027 | 21 |
| 100% | Biogas (Bachok) (FiT2.0) | Biogas | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2028 | 21 |
| 88% | Biomass (Tangkak) (FiT2.0) | Biomass | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2028 | 21 |
| 51% | Biomass (Kemaman) (FiT 2.0) | Biomass | 11.0 | 5.6 | 2028 | 21 |
| Total Upcoming (ex. 7MW Biomass Tangkak) | 162.5 | 135.1 | ||||
| Grand Total (ex. 7MW Biomass Tangkak) | 163.7 | 136.3 | ||||
Source: Company, TA Securities
Valuation & Recommendation
Following the earnings revision, we raise our SOP-derived TP to RM1.47 (from RM1.38 previously) and re-affirm our Buy call. Our valuation also updates SAMAIDEN’s latest asset pipeline, having factored in the three new bioenergy assets won under FiT2.0 and omits the previous 7MW Tangkak biomass project.
We continue to like SAMAIDEN as one of the key beneficiaries of an upcycle in RE plant-up underpinned by a solid orderbook, strong net cash position and strong pipeline of RE assets to boost recurring income. Key catalysts: (1) LSS5 and LSS5+ EPCC contract awards; (2) CRESS/CREAM EPCC contract awards; (3) New generation asset wins under LSS5+ and CRESS. Key risks are a sharp rise in raw material cost such as solar modules and delays in project implementation.
Figure 4: SAMAIDEN SOP Valuation
| Unit/Assets | Value (RMm) | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| EPCC | 431.0 | 20x CY25F PER |
| CGPP-1 (29.9MW) (30%-owned) | 17.9 | Equity value (DCF, WACC: 5%) |
| CGPP-2 (13.4MW) | 27.1 | Equity value (DCF, WACC: 5%) |
| Biogas Bachok (1.2MW) (60%-owned) | 9.6 | Equity value (DCF, WACC: 6%) |
| LSS5 Pasir Mas (100.0MW) | 143.4 | Equity value (DCF, WACC: 5%) |
| Biogas Bachok 2 (1.5MW) | 7.7 | Equity value (DCF, WACC: 6%) |
| Biomass Tangkak (5.5MW) (88%-owned) | 24.3 | Equity value (DCF, WACC: 6%) |
| Biomass Kemaman (11.0MW) (51%-owned) | 28.8 | Equity value (DCF, WACC: 6%) |
| Gross SOP | 689.7 | |
| Add: Cash proceeds from warrants | 109.8 | |
| Ex-all SOP | 799.5 | |
| Enlarged share base (m) | 560.0 | |
| SOP value (RM/share) | 1.43 | |
| ESG premium/(discount) | 3.0% | |
| Target Price (RM/share) | 1.47 |
Income Statement
| FYE 30 Jun (RM mn) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 170.8 | 227.2 | 332.8 | 400.9 | 465.2 |
| Core EBITDA | 15.1 | 23.0 | 29.5 | 38.3 | 57.7 |
| Depreciation | (0.3) | (0.7) | (0.9) | (2.0) | (5.9) |
| Net Finance Costs | (1.2) | (1.6) | (1.5) | (3.7) | (7.0) |
| Associates & JVs | 0.0 | 0.0 | (0.3) | (0.3) | (0.3) |
| Exceptionals | (0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Pretax Profit | 13.4 | 21.9 | 26.8 | 32.3 | 44.6 |
| Taxation | (3.3) | (5.8) | (6.9) | (8.3) | (11.3) |
| MI | (0.0) | (0.0) | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Net Profit | 10.1 | 16.0 | 19.5 | 23.6 | 32.3 |
| Core Net Profit | 10.3 | 14.9 | 19.5 | 23.6 | 32.3 |
Balance Sheet
| FYE 30 Jun (RM mn) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPE | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 50.2 | 111.4 |
| Intangibles | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Associates & JCES | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Others | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Non-current Assets | 6.6 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 52.9 | 114.0 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Trade and other rcvb | 34.2 | 52.1 | 74.2 | 88.4 | 101.8 |
| Cash and Cash Equivalents | 108.2 | 132.2 | 115.2 | 116.2 | 123.0 |
| Others | 45.0 | 12.5 | 81.6 | 98.2 | 114.0 |
| Current Assets | 187.9 | 197.2 | 271.5 | 303.5 | 339.7 |
| Total Assets | 194.5 | 205.1 | 279.0 | 356.4 | 453.7 |
| Deferred Tax | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Deferred Income | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| LT Borrowings | 1.9 | 1.8 | 10.1 | 45.7 | 93.2 |
| Others | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Non-current Liabilities | 4.4 | 3.6 | 11.8 | 47.5 | 94.9 |
| Borrowings | 4.5 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| Trade & other Payables | 70.6 | 56.8 | 74.2 | 85.4 | 96.1 |
| Others | 17.1 | 3.5 | 34.7 | 41.1 | 47.1 |
| Current Liabilities | 92.2 | 66.9 | 115.5 | 133.1 | 149.8 |
| Total Liabilities | 96.6 | 70.5 | 127.3 | 180.7 | 244.8 |
| Share Capital | 62.6 | 85.0 | 85.0 | 85.0 | 85.0 |
| Reserves | 35.2 | 49.4 | 66.1 | 89.7 | 122.0 |
| Minority Interests | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Perpetual Sukuk | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Equity | 97.9 | 134.6 | 151.7 | 175.8 | 209.0 |
| Total Equity + Liabilities | 194.5 | 205.1 | 279.0 | 356.4 | 453.7 |
Cash Flow Statement
| FYE 30 Jun (RM mn) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pretax Profit | 13.4 | 21.9 | 26.8 | 32.3 | 44.6 |
| Depreciation | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 5.9 |
| Net Interest | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 7.0 |
| Associates & JCES | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Working Cap Changes | 24.9 | (41.1) | (49.6) | (21.6) | (24.0) |
| Tax Paid | (3.3) | (5.8) | (6.9) | (8.3) | (11.3) |
| Less: Net Interest | (1.2) | (1.6) | (1.5) | (3.7) | (7.0) |
| Others | (1.8) | 25.8 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 11.0 |
| CF from Operations | 33.4 | 1.4 | (21.9) | 12.7 | 26.4 |
| Capex | (1.8) | (2.1) | (0.5) | (47.4) | (67.0) |
| Others | 1.4 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CF from Investing | (0.4) | 1.8 | (0.5) | (47.4) | (67.0) |
| Dividends | 0.0 | (2.0) | (2.9) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net Change in Debt | 7.6 | 0.7 | 10.1 | 39.4 | 59.0 |
| Others | (13.2) | 23.3 | (1.9) | (3.7) | (11.6) |
| CF from Financing | (5.6) | 22.0 | 5.4 | 35.7 | 47.4 |
| Net Cash Flow | 27.4 | 25.2 | (17.0) | 1.0 | 6.8 |
| Beginning Cash | 69.0 | 96.6 | 121.7 | 104.6 | 105.6 |
| Ending Cash | 96.6 | 121.7 | 104.6 | 105.6 | 112.4 |
Sector Recommendation Guideline
OVERWEIGHT: The total return of the sector, as per our coverage universe, exceeds 12%.
NEUTRAL: The total return of the sector, as per our coverage universe, is within the range of 7% to 12%.
UNDERWEIGHT: The total return of the sector, as per our coverage universe, is lower than 7%.
Stock Recommendation Guideline
BUY: Total return of the stock exceeds 12%.
HOLD: Total return of the stock is within the range of 7% to 12%.
SELL: Total return of the stock is lower than 7%.
Not Rated: The company is not under coverage. The report is for information only.
Total Return of the stock includes expected share price appreciation, adjustment for ESG rating and gross dividend. Gross dividend is excluded from total return if dividend discount model valuation is used to avoid double counting.
Total Return of the sector is market capitalisation weighted average of total return of the stocks in the sector.
ESG Scoring & Guideline
Environmental ★★★
Scoring: ★★★
Remark: SAMAIDEN is involved in the EPCC of RE power generation plants and also owns RE generation assets. It is also constantly monitoring subcontractors and suppliers to avoid environmental incidents and hazards.
Social ★★★★★
Scoring: ★★★★★
Remark: There are comprehensive occupational safety and health standards in place. There is also comprehensive employee engagement and development plans in place to nurture the talents within the group.
Governance ★★★★
Scoring: ★★★★
Remark: SAMAIDEN applies the majority of the best practices of the Malaysian Code on Corporate Governance. 33% of the board members are female and 67% of board members are independent non-executive directors.
Average ★★★★
Scoring: ★★★★
| ★★★★★ (≥80%) | Displayed market leading capabilities in integrating ESG factors in all aspects of operations, management and future directions. | +5% premium to target price |
| ★★★★ (60-79%) | Above adequate integration of ESG factors into most aspects of operations, management and future directions. | +3% premium to target price |
| ★★★ (40-59%) | Adequate integration of ESG factors into operations, management and future directions. | No changes to target price |
| ★★ (20-39%) | Have some integration of ESG factors in operations and management but are insufficient. | -3% discount to target price |
| ★ (<20%) | Minimal or no integration of ESG factors in operations and management. | -5% discount to target price |
