22 July 2025
SD Guthrie (SDG MK)
New Earnings Contributions From 2H25 Onwards
Agriculture | Agriculture
Buy (Maintained)
Target Price (Return): MYR5.45 (+14%)
Price (Market Cap): MYR4.77 (USD7,774m)
ESG score: 3.2 (out of 4)
Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD): 11.7m/2.77m
- Keep BUY and MYR5.45 SOP-based TP, 14% upside with c.2% FY25F yield. We are upbeat on SD Guthrie’s asset monetisation leading to MYR500m-1bn in recurring EBIT in the next five years. This, with the output recovery at its plantations, leads us to believe that the stock should trade at a premium valuation, as contributions from new verticals have yet to be priced in.
- Seven property MOU’s signed… SDG has announced seven MOUs with property developers/state agencies so far, with total land to be developed of up to 6,070 acres. It plans to develop 2,000 acres pa over the next 10 years.
- … but only one sale and purchase agreement (SPA) signed so far. However, of the 7 MOUs, only one has reached the stage of an SPA and a JV being formed, ie the one with Ecoworld (ECW MK, BUY, TP: MYR3) – while the remaining six are being negotiated over, with ongoing due diligence. Going forward, the focus will continue to be on areas that are ripe for development like Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Selangor, but SDG intends to only announce land sale/industrial park developments once SPAs are signed.
- First land sale gain by year-end, from the SPA with ECW for 1,195 acres of land in its Bukit Pelandok estate. We estimate SDG could gain cMYR510-520m (excluding taxes) from this disposal, but it remains uncertain how much it would need to reinvest in the JV post-disposal (SDG to hold 30% of the JV). For the remaining six MOUs, however, the disposal gains would only be recognised from 2026F onwards, with the next potentially being the Carey Island land sale to Sime Darby Property (SDPR MK, BUY, TP: MYR2.33). We highlight that SDG’s BV for all these land areas is MYR1-1.20psf.
- SDG has a recurring EBIT target of MYR500m-1bn within the next five years from all these industrial developments via: i) Gains on land disposals to the JV, and ii) recurring property development income. Part of the cash will be reinvested into upstream (brownfield landbank) and downstream (value-added differentiated products) operations, and also used for dividend payouts. It has a 50% dividend policy, and payout going forward will also include profit made from disposing land for industrial parks.
- Waiting for Large Scale Solar (LSS) 5+. It is now waiting for the successful bidders of LSS5+, to be announced, having submitted bids for c.100MW of solar power plants. While the expected ROI on LSS5+ is relatively low (single-digit IRR) vs industrial park developments, its 15MW solar plant under the Corporate Green Power Programme should have a higher IRR, and is on track to be completed by end-2025. It does not intend to lease additional land for solar projects (existing leases include a total of 583MW on 24 sites).
- Our TP of MYR5.45 includes a 4% ESG premium. Our forecasts do not include contributions from SDG’s new verticals (ie significant upside). Our back-of-envelope calculation indicates the gain on the remaining six disposals alone could more than double core profit, assuming all are completed in FY26.
Analysts
+603 2302 8110
hoe.lee.leng@rhbgroup.com
+603 2302 8114
iftaar.hakim.rusli@rhbgroup.com
| Share Performance (%) | YTD | 1m | 3m | 6m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute | (3.6) | 6.2 | 2.8 | (2.5) | 6.0 |
| Relative | 3.5 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 12.8 |
| 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) | 4.29 – 5.15 | ||||
| Forecasts and Valuation | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total turnover (MYRm) | 18,428 | 19,831 | 16,026 | 16,796 | 18,196 |
| Recurring net profit (MYRm) | 995 | 2,201 | 1,491 | 1,462 | 1,505 |
| Recurring net profit growth (%) | (53.5) | 121.2 | (32.3) | (1.9) | 2.9 |
| Recurring P/E (x) | 33.15 | 14.99 | 22.13 | 22.57 | 21.92 |
| P/B (x) | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| P/CF (x) | 10.73 | 11.97 | 8.63 | 10.43 | 10.37 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 11.25 | 8.00 | 9.44 | 9.43 | 9.17 |
| Return on average equity (%) | 10.9 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Net debt to equity (%) | 24.5 | 23.7 | 19.9 | 20.0 | 20.1 |
Overall ESG Score: 3.2 (out of 4)
E Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)
S Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
G Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
Please refer to the ESG analysis on the next page
Emissions And ESG
Trend analysis
In FY24, SDG’s Scope 1 emissions decreased to 9.4m tonnes of CO2e (-8% YoY) vs FY23’s 10.25m tonnes of CO2e. Its Scope 2 emissions increased to 187.7k tonnes of CO2e (FY23: 167.7k tonnes of CO2e). Scope 3 emissions, on the other hand, dipped by 1% to 9.03m tonnes of CO2e (FY23: 9.13m tonnes of CO2e).
| Emissions (tCO2e) | Dec-22 | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scope 1 | 9,742,966 | 10,245,293 | 9,398,397 | na |
| Scope 2 | 164,201 | 167,688 | 187,678 | na |
| Scope 3 | 8,961,121 | 9,128,227 | 9,031,799 | na |
| Total emissions | 18,868,288 | 19,541,208 | 18,617,874 | na |
Latest ESG-Related Developments
Achieving Net Zero. SDG has developed a 3-pronged approach achieve its net-zero emissions target by 2050: i) Accelerating its usage of renewable energy, ii) land use transformation, and iii) enhancing supplier engagement.
Traceability. In 2024, SDG recorded 84.9% traceability to plantation.
Sustainability certifications. In 2024, 100% of SDG’s upstream operations were RSPO-certified.
ESG Unbundled
Overall ESG Score: 3.2 (out of 4)
Last Updated: 2 Jul 2025
E Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)
SDG’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity fell by 21% YoY in 2024. It is maintaining its target to reduce GHG emissions by 50% by 2030, against the 2020 baseline.
S Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
The US Customs and Border Patrol has lifted the 2-year ban on palm oil products for SDG (originally imposed due to allegations of forced labour). SDG continues to adhere to the International Labour Organisation’s conventions, and applies free and fair labour principles for all employees.
G Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
50% of SDG’s board members are independent directors. Additionally, SDG provides full disclosure on director remuneration, which includes salaries and bonuses on a named basis. SDG has an in-house investor relations team and holds investor briefings regularly, embodying good transparency and disclosure practices.
ESG Rating History
| Date | Rating |
|---|---|
| Jul-23 | 2.8 |
| Sep-23 | 3.0 |
| Nov-23 | 3.0 |
| Jan-24 | 3.0 |
| Mar-24 | 3.0 |
| May-24 | 3.0 |
| Jul-24 | 3.0 |
| Sep-24 | 3.0 |
| Nov-24 | 3.0 |
| Jan-25 | 3.0 |
| Mar-25 | 3.0 |
| May-25 | 3.0 |
| Jul-25 | 3.2 |
Financial Exhibits
Valuation basis
SOP, applying 20x 2026F P/E to its plantation earnings, 18x P/E for its downstream division, and RNAV for its property landbank.
Key drivers
i. CPO price increase;
ii. Higher FFB production output;
iii. Improved competitiveness of its downstream processing division vs peers.
Key risks
i. CPO price decline;
ii. Weather risks;
iii. Negative demand and supply dynamics of the global vegetable oil industry.
Company Profile
SD Guthrie is the largest listed plantation company on Bursa Malaysia, and has more than 600,000ha of oil palm landbank.
| Financial summary (MYR) | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring EPS | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| DPS | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| BVPS | 2.57 | 2.67 | 2.78 | 2.87 | 2.97 |
| Return on average equity (%) | 10.9 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Valuation metrics | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring P/E (x) | 33.15 | 14.99 | 22.13 | 22.57 | 21.92 |
| P/B (x) | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| FCF Yield (%) | 3.0 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 11.25 | 8.00 | 9.44 | 9.43 | 9.17 |
| EV/EBIT (x) | 19.59 | 11.54 | 15.78 | 16.17 | 15.75 |
| Income statement (MYRm) | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total turnover | 18,428 | 19,831 | 16,026 | 16,796 | 18,196 |
| Gross profit | 9,030 | 9,717 | 7,853 | 8,230 | 8,916 |
| EBITDA | 3,362 | 4,733 | 3,956 | 3,979 | 4,113 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | (1,432) | (1,453) | (1,591) | (1,657) | (1,718) |
| Operating profit | 1,930 | 3,280 | 2,365 | 2,322 | 2,395 |
| Net interest | (175) | (119) | (114) | (102) | (108) |
| Pre-tax profit | 2,752 | 3,150 | 2,179 | 2,140 | 2,198 |
| Taxation | (719) | (796) | (523) | (514) | (528) |
| Reported net profit | 1,860 | 2,175 | 1,491 | 1,462 | 1,505 |
| Recurring net profit | 995 | 2,201 | 1,491 | 1,462 | 1,505 |
| Cash flow (MYRm) | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change in working capital | 723 | (645) | 574 | (120) | (209) |
| Cash flow from operations | 3,075 | 2,757 | 3,820 | 3,163 | 3,180 |
| Capex | (2,096) | (1,968) | (2,500) | (2,500) | (2,500) |
| Cash flow from investing activities | (630) | (1,280) | (2,500) | (2,500) | (2,500) |
| Dividends paid | (642) | (1,134) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow from financing activities | (2,244) | (1,685) | (1,161) | (830) | (830) |
| Cash at beginning of period | 635 | 830 | 625 | 785 | 618 |
| Net change in cash | 201 | (208) | 160 | (167) | (150) |
| Ending balance cash | 830 | 625 | 788 | 621 | 472 |
| Balance sheet (MYRm) | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cash and equivalents | 830 | 625 | 785 | 618 | 469 |
| Tangible fixed assets | 19,145 | 19,365 | 20,274 | 21,117 | 21,899 |
| Total investments | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Total assets | 31,886 | 32,047 | 31,960 | 32,895 | 33,937 |
| Short-term debt | 1,701 | 1,742 | 1,742 | 1,742 | 1,742 |
| Total long-term debt | 3,582 | 3,360 | 2,960 | 2,960 | 2,960 |
| Total liabilities | 13,711 | 13,117 | 12,259 | 12,521 | 12,846 |
| Total equity | 18,175 | 18,930 | 19,701 | 20,374 | 21,091 |
| Total liabilities & equity | 31,886 | 32,047 | 31,960 | 32,895 | 33,937 |
| Key metrics | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (%) | (12.4) | 7.6 | (19.2) | 4.8 | 8.3 |
| Recurrent EPS growth (%) | (53.5) | 121.2 | (32.3) | (1.9) | 2.9 |
| Gross margin (%) | 49.0 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 49.0 |
| Operating EBITDA margin (%) | 18.2 | 23.9 | 24.7 | 23.7 | 22.6 |
| Net profit margin (%) | 10.1 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 8.3 |
| Dividend payout ratio (%) | 55.8 | 52.0 | 51.0 | 56.8 | 55.1 |
| Capex/sales (%) | 11.4 | 9.9 | 15.6 | 14.9 | 13.7 |
| Interest cover (x) | 9.77 | 22.63 | 16.96 | 17.33 | 17.88 |
Figures and Analysis
Figure 1: SD Guthrie’s Industrial Park Property MOU’s/JV’s
| No | Date announced | Summary | Land size (acres) | Location | Partners | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8-May-24 | SDG to collaborate at Kerian Integrated Green Industrial Park (KIGIP) in Perak. | 1,000 | Kerian, Perak | PNB | Solar farms spanning 660 acres and the rest will house commerical residential facilities, amenities and large green spaces |
| 2 | 4-Nov-24 | SD Guthrie to jointly develop a green industrial park within the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) | 641 | Kulai, Johor | AME Elite | It will feature a dedicated solar park to provide green energy |
| 3 | 22-Aug-24 | SDG to develop a HALMAS-certified industrial park | 464 | Bukit Pelandok, Negeri Sembilan | TH Properties | The new industrial park will be an extension of THP’s Techpark 1 and 2 – which are running at full capacity with several local and multinational companies – in Bandar Enstek, which is an international halal hub. |
| 4 | 19-Nov-24 | SDG to develop an industrial park within MVV2.0 | 1,195 | Bukit Pelandok, Negeri Sembilan | EcoWorld NS Corporation | Park will be developed over nine years, featuring industrial lots, ready built factories and commerical properties, which cater towards high-growth sectors, including aerospace, E&E and logistics industries. |
| 5 | 20-Jun-25 | SDG to develop a leading industrial and logistics hub via SPV | Up to 2,000 | Carey Island, Selangor | SD Property | An industrial and logistics hub that will co-exist with the integrated and well-established palm oil business on the island, and complement the existing operations at Westport and Northport in Port Klang. |
| 6 | 24-Jun-25 | SDG to jointly develop an industrial park | 300 | Pasir Panjang, Port Dickson | Menteri Besar Incorporated Negeri Sembilan | The initiative is set to be developed as a part of the Port Dickson Free Zone (PDFZ) and will feature industrial space and support facilities – including smart warehouses, advanced manufacturing zones and high capacity utilities. |
| 7 | 8-Jul-25 | SDG to jointly develop edu-technology park | 470 | Carey Island, Selangor | Permodalan Negeri Selangor Berhad (PNSB) | Edu-Technology Park and Food Security Hub on Carey Island. This project is expected to strengthen Carey Island’s role as an international hub for technology-driven development, education and food security. |
Figure 2: SD Guthrie’s new business pillars
Financial Reporting on the New Business Pillars
Recurring Segment Expanded to Include New Pillars on Renewable Energy & Industrial Development
Renewable Energy
LBIT Contribution (FY2024): RM4 million
Segment Assets (as at 31 Dec 2024): RM16 million
Assets include: Biogas, Solar, Land for Solar, Biomass.
Industrial Development
LBIT Contribution (FY2024): RM3 million
Segment Assets (as at 31 Dec 2024): RM35 million
Assets include: Land related to all announced MOUs (Kerian, Perak; Kulai, Johor; Bukit Pelandok, Negeri Sembilan) and Identified land for potential industrial development.
All outright & part disposals within the new business pillars will now be recorded as recurring gains from non-recurring previously
Figure 3: SD Guthrie’s pipeline
Pipeline within the Group’s New Business Pillars
Key update and progress on the Group’s new Industrial Development and Renewable Energy pillars
RENEWABLE ENERGY
- Corporate Green Power Programme (CGPP): SD Guthrie’s inaugural 15MWac solar plant in Bukit Selarong, Kedah is ON TARGET for commissioning in 4Q FY2025.
- LSS5+ Programme: Submitted bid for a 99.99 MWac solar power plant. Waiting for the Energy Commission (EC) to announce results on the successful parties to the competitive bids.
- Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme (CRESS): Ongoing exploration and assessment of potential investments including discussion with parties on potential collaboration/partnership.
- LSS6 Programme: Ongoing preparatory work to be bid-ready in anticipation of the launching of the RFP process for the next LSS programme.
INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT
- Eco Business Park VII: Execution mode focusing on fulfilling the CPs for the land sale and planning and developing the concept for the development.
- KIGIP: Progressing through ongoing discussions with several state & government authorities as well as identifying potential developer partners.
- Outright Land Disposals: Several parcels targeted to be completed within the year + others targeted for execution of SPA.
- Existing MOUs: Discussions are ongoing in order to progress into formalising the collaborations.
Figure 4: SDG’s forecast assumptions
| FYE | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPO price (MYR/tonne) | 3,772 | 4,101 | 4,100 | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| FFB production (m tonnes) | 8.7 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.7 |
| Downstream margin (%) | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Figure 5: SOP valuation
| Basis | Valuation (MYRm) | |
|---|---|---|
| Plantations upstream | 2026F P/E Target of 20x | 23,267 |
| Plantations downstream | 2026F P/E Target of 18x | 5,375 |
| Property development | 75% Discount to RNAV | 7,634 |
| TOTAL | 36,275 | |
| No. issued shares (m) | 6,916 | |
| SOP/share (MYR) | 5.25 | |
| ESG premium/(discount) | 4% | 0.21 |
| TP (MYR) | 5.45 |
Figure 6: RNAV of SDG’s landbank (freehold land only)
| Acres | BV (MYRm) | MV (MYRm) | Net surplus (MYRm) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johor | 133,380 | 1,545 | 11,620 | 7,053 |
| Perak | 90,622 | 1,207 | 7,895 | 4,682 |
| Negeri Sembilan | 88,876 | 808 | 7,743 | 4,854 |
| Selangor | 86,566 | 1,316 | 16,969 | 10,957 |
| Kedah | 46,024 | 442 | 2,005 | 1,094 |
| Malacca | 36,368 | 326 | 2,376 | 1,435 |
| Pahang | 23,008 | 344 | 1,002 | 461 |
| Total RNAV | 30,535 | |||
| Discount to RNAV | 75% | |||
| Discounted RNAV | 7,634 |
Recommendation Chart
| Date | Recommendation | Target Price | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-08 | Buy | 5.45 | 4.74 |
| 2025-05-07 | Buy | 5.65 | 4.68 |
| 2025-02-28 | Buy | 5.65 | 5.07 |
| 2024-11-21 | Buy | 5.55 | 4.80 |
| 2024-11-11 | Buy | 5.75 | 5.13 |
| 2024-08-22 | Buy | 5.35 | 4.58 |
| 2024-08-12 | Neutral | 4.25 | 4.50 |
| 2024-06-02 | Neutral | 3.90 | 4.25 |
| 2024-02-22 | Neutral | 4.15 | 4.50 |
| 2023-11-26 | Neutral | 4.55 | 4.34 |
| 2023-11-19 | Neutral | 4.35 | 4.38 |
| 2023-08-23 | Neutral | 4.20 | 4.32 |
| 2023-07-23 | Neutral | 4.40 | 4.53 |
| 2023-05-24 | Neutral | 4.00 | 4.41 |
| 2023-02-19 | Neutral | 4.55 | 4.35 |
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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| Analyst | Company |
|---|---|
(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
