Securing Perak Water Supply Deal






GAMUDA BERHAD: Securing Perak Water Supply Deal


PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK
PublicInvest Research Company Update

Thursday, July 17, 2025

GAMUDA BERHAD
Outperform

DESCRIPTION

One of the largest builders in Malaysia, with jobs in Malaysia, India and the Middle East. Other businesses include toll concessions, property development and water assets.

12-Month Target Price
RM5.60
Current Price
RM5.03
Expected Return
+11.3%
Previous Target Price
RM5.60
Market
Main
Sector
Construction
Bursa Code
5398
Bloomberg Ticker
GAM MK
Shariah-compliant
Yes

SHARE PRICE CHART

Chart Data Not Available
52 Week Range (RM)
3.47 – 5.38
3-Month Average Vol (‘000)
21,864.6

SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE

1M 3M 6M
Absolute Returns 4.8 29.3 19.4
Relative Returns 4.8 27.2 31.8

KEY STOCK DATA

Market Capitalisation (RMm)
29,038.7
No. of Shares (m)
5,773.1

MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS

%
Employee Provident Fund 15.9
Amanah Saham Nasional 4.1
Generasi Setia M SB 4.0

Penny Chong
T 603 2268 3010
F 603 2268 3014
E research@publicinvestbank.com.my

Securing Perak Water Supply Deal

Gamuda, in partnership with Perbadanan Kemajuan Negeri Perak (PKNPk), has accepted a letter of appointment from the Perak State Government to develop and operate water treatment and distribution infrastructure in Kerian, northern Perak. This infrastructure forms part of the broader Northern Perak Water Supply Scheme (NPWSS), which has an estimated total development value of RM5bn. The NPWSS is a strategic initiative by both the Perak State and Federal Governments to address the region’s long-standing water shortages. This marks Gamuda’s second recurring income project in Malaysia, following its Ulu Padas Hydroelectric Dam project in Sabah. We view this development positively as Gamuda stands to benefit from two income streams, construction revenue and recurring income upon the project’s commercialisation. However, we keep our forecasts unchanged, pending necessary approvals and finalisation of the privatisation agreement. All told, we maintain our Outperform call on Gamuda with an unchanged SOTP derived TP of RM5.60.

  • Project details. Under the terms of appointment, the 50:50 joint venture (JV) between PKNPk and Gamuda will undertake the project on a privatisation basis with a minimum 40-year operational period. The JV will develop and operate the water treatment and distribution infrastructure in Kerian district, northern Perak, supplying treated water to both the Kerian Integrated Green Industrial Park and selling excess treated water to Penang. A privatisation agreement is expected to be finalised within 90 days.
  • NPWSS is designed to transfer 1,500m litres per day (MLD) of raw water from Sungai Perak to Bukit Merah Dam. Of this total capacity, 500MLD will be allocated for immediate irrigation needs of Northern Perak, with the remaining 1,000 MLD available for treatment to meet the state’s domestic and industrial demands.
  • PKNPK is a statutory body established by the Perak State Government in 1967, serving as the state’s principal agency for driving socioeconomic development and investment in Perak.
  • Prospects. Gamuda stands to benefit from two income streams, construction revenue and recurring income upon the project’s commercialisation. The margin for the construction of this project is expected to be in low teens.

KEY FORECAST TABLE

FYE Jul (RM m) 2023A 2024A 2025F 2026F 2027F CAGR (%)
Revenue 8,220.4 13,346.7 16,374.3 17,107.4 19,071.4 23.4%
Operating Profit 902.7 945.2 1,607.8 1,896.8 2,222.4 25.3%
Pre-tax Profit 1,057.8 1,097.4 1,523.6 1,874.9 2,189.8 20.0%
Net Profit 814.7 912.1 1,004.2 1,299.4 1,617.9 18.7%
EPS (Sen) 13.9 15.6 17.1 22.2 27.6
P/E (x) 28.8 25.8 23.4 18.1 14.5
DPS (Sen) 22.4 7.6 10.0 10.0 10.0
Dividend Yield (%) 5.6 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.5

Source: Company, PublicInvest Research estimates

KEY FINANCIAL DATA

INCOME STATEMENT DATA

FYE Jul (RM m) 2023A 2024A 2025F 2026F 2027F
Revenue 8,220.4 13,346.7 16,374.3 17,107.4 19,071.4
Operating expenses -7,525.6 -12,671.1 -14,766.4 -15,210.6 -16,973.5
Operating Profit 902.7 945.2 1,607.8 1,896.8 2,222.4
Other Gains / (Losses) 233.4 325.6 156.5 189.7 189.7
Finance Costs -78.4 -173.4 -240.7 -211.7 -222.3
Pre-tax Profit 1,057.8 1,097.4 1,523.6 1,874.9 2,189.8
Income Tax -221.1 -155.1 -481.4 -533.4 -525.6
Effective Tax Rate (%) 20.9 14.1 31.6 28.5 24.0
Minorities 22.0 30.2 38.0 42.1 46.3
Net Profit 814.7 912.1 1,004.2 1,299.4 1,617.9
Growth
Revenue (%) 67.7 62.4 22.7 4.5 11.5
Operating Profit (%) 42.2 4.7 70.1 18.0 17.2
Net Profit 12.3 12.0 10.1 29.4 24.5

Source: Company, PublicInvest Research estimates

BALANCE SHEET DATA

FYE Jul (RM m) 2023A 2024A 2025F 2026F 2027F
Property, Plant & Equipment 1,655.5 1,613.9 1,847.1 1,906.2 2,001.5
Cash and Cash Equivalents 3,169.5 2,698.9 2,968.7 3,265.6 3,592.2
Receivables 3,193.1 3,640.0 6,210.3 6,500.9 7,157.3
Other Assets 15,849.0 18,568.4 16,523.9 17,347.3 19,882.8
Total Assets 23,867.1 26,521.2 27,550.0 29,020.1 32,633.8
Payables 3,771.2 4,806.3 5,465.0 6,236.9 8,749.3
Borrowings 6,923.7 7,806.5 8,354.7 8,314.5 8,352.1
LT payables 225.6 303.3 225.6 225.6 236.9
Other Liabilities 2,020.0 2,083.5 1,995.4 1,995.4 1,995.4
Total Liabilities 12,940.6 14,999.7 16,040.8 16,772.4 19,333.7
Shareholders’ Equity 10,926.6 11,521.5 11,509.2 12,247.7 13,300.0
Total Equity and Liabilities 23,867.1 26,521.2 27,550.0 29,020.1 32,633.8

Source: Company, PublicInvest Research estimates

PER SHARE DATA & RATIOS

FYE Jul (RM m) 2023A 2024A 2025F 2026F 2027F
Book Value Per Share (RM) 1.87 1.97 1.96 2.09 2.27
NTA Per Share (RM) 1.74 1.79 1.79 1.91 2.09
EPS (Sen) 13.9 15.6 17.1 22.2 27.6
DPS (Sen) 22.4 7.6 10.0 10.0 10.0
Payout Ratio (%) 160.8 48.6 58.3 45.1 36.2
ROA (%) 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.5 5.2
ROE (%) 7.5 7.9 8.7 10.6 12.2

Source: Company, PublicInvest Research estimates

RATING CLASSIFICATION

STOCKS

OUTPERFORM The stock return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark’s total of 10% or higher over the next 12months.
NEUTRAL The stock return is expected to be within +/- 10% of a relevant benchmark’s return over the next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM The stock return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark’s return by -10% over the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY The stock return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark’s return by 5% or higher over the next 3 months but the underlying fundamentals are not strong enough to warrant an Outperform call.
TRADING SELL The stock return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark’s return by -5% or more over the next 3 months.
NOT RATED The stock is not within regular research coverage.

SECTOR

OVERWEIGHT The sector is expected to outperform a relevant benchmark over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL The sector is expected to perform in line with a relevant benchmark over the next 12 months.
UNDERWEIGHT The sector is expected to underperform a relevant benchmark over the next 12 months.

DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared solely for information and private circulation only. It is for distribution under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The information contained herein is prepared from data and sources believed to be reliable at the time of issue of this document. The views/opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and solely reflects the personal views of the analyst(s) acting in his/her capacity as employee of Public Investment Bank Berhad (“PIVB”). PIVB does not make any guarantee, representations or warranty neither expressed or implied nor accepts any responsibility or liability as to its fairness liability adequacy, completeness or correctness of any such information and opinion contained herein. No reliance upon such statement or usage by the addressee/anyone shall give rise to any claim/liability for loss of damage against PIVB, Public Bank Berhad, its affiliates and related companies, directors, officers, connected persons/employees, associates or agents.

This document is not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation, invitation or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities, related investments or financial instruments. Any recommendation in this document does not have regards to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile and particular needs of any specific persons who receive it. We encourage the addressee of this document to independently evaluate the merits of the information contained herein, consider their own investment objectives, financial situation, particular needs, risks and legal profiles, seek the advice of their, amongst others, tax, accounting, legal, business professionals and financial advisers before participating in any transaction in respect of any of the securities of the company(ies) covered in this document.

PIVB, Public Bank Berhad, our affiliates and related companies, directors, officers, connected persons/employees, associates or agents may own or have positions in the securities of the company(ies) covered in this document or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add or dispose of, or may be materially interested in, any such securities. Further PIVB, Public Bank Berhad, our affiliates and related companies, associates or agents do and/or seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this document and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities of such company(ies), may sell them or buy them from customers on a principal basis, may have or intend to accommodate credit facilities or other banking services and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies) as well as solicit such investment advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this document. The analyst(s) and associate analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this document may participate in the solicitation of businesses described aforesaid and would receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality of research, investor client feedback, stock pickings and performance of his/her recommendation and competitive factors. The analyst(s) and associate analyst(s) may also receive compensation or benefit (including gift and company/issuer-sponsored and paid trips in line with the Bank’s policies) in executing his/her duties. Hence, the addressee or any persons reviewing this document should be aware of the foregoing, amongst others, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest.

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