Johor Plantations Group (JPG MK) [Strong ESG Credentials And Fundamentals; Keep BUY]






Johor Plantations Group Company Update


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Malaysia Company Update

Johor Plantations Group (JPG MK) [Strong ESG Credentials And Fundamentals; Keep BUY]

9 July 2025

Johor Plantations Group (JPG MK)

Strong ESG Credentials And Fundamentals; Keep BUY

  • Maintain BUY, with new MYR1.45 TP from MYR1.55, 21% upside and c.4% FY26F yield. We expect 2026 to be a more balanced year fundamentally, with lower YoY CPO prices, but geopolitical risks will translate to more volatility. We lower our CPO, but raise our PK price assumptions for FY25-27. Having one of the highest ESG scores for companies under our coverage, coupled with its promising downstream prospects, we believe Johor Plantations Group’s valuation is attractive. It is currently trading at 11x FY26F P/E, lower than the peer range of 12-15x.
  • Spot CPO prices have moderated from MYR4,600-4,800/tonne in 1Q25 to a low of MYR3,780 in May, only to bounce back to MYR3,900-MYR4,100 currently. The decline was mainly driven by geopolitics in the light of US trade tariffs, wars, and crude oil prices falling as a result, all of which pushed CPO prices in the same direction. We highlight that the correlation between CPO prices and crude oil prices surged to 0.47 in Apr 2025 from -0.6 in 1Q25, and subsequently rose further to the current levels of 0.68, due to more geopolitical risks.
  • What’s next for CPO prices? We expect CPO prices to remain volatile given the ever-changing geopolitical situation. Fundamentally however, global supply and demand will likely be more balanced in 2026F, as supply improves, while demand should pick up given the more attractive relative prices.
  • Supply of 17 oils and fats complex is expected to improve YoY in 2026F, coming from a partial recovery of palm, sunflower and rapeseed supplies, as well as continued growth from soybeans. Still, the stock/usage ratio of the 17 oils and fats complex is still expected to remain below the historical average of 13.6%, at 12.9% for Oct 2025F/Sep 2026F, albeit up from 12.7% in 2025F. This leaves very little cushion in case of any short-term bullish supply or demand surprises, hence raising the risk of price volatility going forward.
  • What does this mean for relative prices of vegetable oils and demand? Ignoring the noises from geopolitics, we expect 2026F to see: i) Muted soybean prices, due to continued strong supply in 2026F; ii) SBO prices remain supported at higher levels, due to the higher demand from increased US biofuel blending; iii) CPO prices to continue trading at a discount to SBO in the medium term (currently at USD217/tonne discount); and iv) demand from price sensitive countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh come back.
  • We trim our CPO price to MYR4,100/tonne (from MYR4,300) for 2025Fand to MYR4,000 (from MYR4,100) for 2026F and 2027F; but raise PK prices to MYR3,300/tonne for 2025F (from MYR2,800) and to MYR3,200 for 2026F and 2027F (from MYR2,600). We also update for our latest in-house forex assumptions and adjust forecasts up by 3.5%, 7.8% and 9.5% for FY25-27F.
  • Keep BUY, with new MYR1.45 TP, after rolling forward our valuation to 2026F. The new TP is based on a new 13x FY26F P/E (from 14x 2025 P/E), after benchmarking it against its peers, and an unchanged ESG score of 3.2.

Agriculture | Plantation

Buy (Maintained)

Target Price (Return): MYR1.45 (+21%)
Price (Market Cap): MYR1.20 (USD708m)
ESG score: 3.3 (out of 4)
Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 5.32m/1.23m

Analysts

Hoe Lee Leng
+603 2302 8110
hoe.lee.leng@rhbgroup.com

Iftaar Hakim Rusli
+603-23028114
iftaar.hakim.rusli@rhbgroup.com

Share Performance (%)

YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m
Absolute (11.1) 0.0 8.1 0.8 0.0
Relative (4.7) (1.4) 1.6 6.5 0.0

52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 0.84-1.45

JPG MK (JPG MK) Price Chart

A line chart shows the JPG MK price close from July 2024 to June 2025, fluctuating between approximately 0.9 and 1.4. Another line shows its performance relative to the FBM KLCI (RHS), which ranges from about 115 to 171. The price shows a general uptrend from a low in mid-2024 to a peak in early 2025, followed by some volatility.

Source: Bloomberg

Forecasts and Valuation

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total turnover (MYRm) 1,253 1,525 1,637 1,702 1,794
Recurring net profit (MYRm) 167 252 277 269 268
Recurring net profit growth (%) (67.3) 50.5 9.8 (2.9) (0.3)
Recurring P/E (x) 17.92 11.91 10.84 11.16 11.20
P/B (x) 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9
P/CF (x) 7.73 6.07 9.15 5.46 6.68
Dividend Yield (%) na 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.70 7.63 7.91 7.87 7.83
Return on average equity (%) 7.9 10.2 9.6 8.7 8.0
Net debt to equity (%) 66.3 37.2 41.1 35.3 32.5

Source: Company data, RHB

Overall ESG Score: 3.2 (out of 4)
E Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)
S Score: 3.7 (EXCELLENT)
G Score: 2.7 (GOOD)
Please refer to the ESG analysis on the next page

See important disclosures at the end of this report


Emissions And ESG

Trend analysis

In FY24, Scope 1 emissions remained flattish at 247.5k tonnes of CO2 equivalents (FY23:247.0k tonnes of CO2 equivalents). Meanwhile, its Scope 3 emissions reduced to 44.9k tonnes of CO2 equivalents (FY23: 55.1k tonnes of CO2 equivalents), bringing the total emissions to -3% YoY.

Emissions (tCO2e)
Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25
Scope 1 255,823 247,045 247,515
Scope 2 208 231 181
Scope 3 33,902 55,110 44,899
Total emissions 289,933 302,386 292,595 na

Source: Company data, RHB

Latest ESG-Related Developments

Sustainability certification: As of end 2024, 100% of JPG’s oil mills and estates are MSPO and RSPO certified.

Traceability: JPG achieved 100% traceability for both mills and plantations, or 93.96% (including external crops).

Smallholder inclusion: JPG is committed to help its smallholders to obtain certification from MSPO and RSPO (currently 289 out of 2,148 are certified vs 256 in 2023).

ESG Unbundled

Overall ESG Score: 3.2 (out of 4)

Last Updated: 2 July 2025

E Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)
JPG has managed to reduce its GHG emissions intensity to 0.89/tonnes of CO2 in 2024 from 2020. The company is fully MSPO- and RSPO-certified for all its palm oil mills and estates. As at FY24, JPG is also targeting to help smallholders obtain SPO and RSPO certification to further bolster the production of sustainable oil palm products.

S Score: 3.7 (EXCELLENT)
JPG is dedicated to ensuring free, prior, and informed consent for all employees. Its fatality rate remained zero for the last four years, and it also has adopted a “zero recruitment cost” for foreign workers.

G Score: 2.7 (GOOD)
56% of JPG’s board members are independent, and 22% of its directors are women, with full disclosure on remuneration including salaries and bonuses on a named basis. It has an in-house investor relations team and holds investor meetings regularly, embodying good transparency and disclosure practices.

ESG Rating History

A line chart shows JPG’s ESG rating history from July 2023 to July 2025. The rating remained stable at 3.2 for most of the period, with a brief dip to 3.1 in May 2025 before returning to 3.2.

Source: RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


Financial Exhibits

Asia
Malaysia
Agriculture
Johor Plantations Group
JPG MK
Buy

Valuation basis
Target P/E of 13x on Dec-2026F earnings

Key drivers
i. CPO price increase;
ii. Higher FFB production output;
iii. Increased demand for sustainable palm oil.

Key risks
i. CPO price volatility;
ii. Weather risks;
iii. Negative effect of a change in the demand and supply dynamics of the global vegetable oil industry.

Company Profile
Johor Plantations Group is an upstream oil palm plantation company operating mainly in Johor, Malaysia, focusing on cultivation of oil palm and FFB production.

Financial summary (MYR)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Recurring EPS 0.07 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11
DPS 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05
BVPS 0.90 1.13 1.18 1.24 1.30
Return on average equity (%) 7.9 10.2 9.6 8.7 8.0

Valuation metrics

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Recurring P/E (x) 17.92 11.91 10.84 11.16 11.20
P/B (x) 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9
FCF Yield (%) 7.2 11.6 0.9 10.0 7.3
Dividend Yield (%) 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.70 7.63 7.91 7.87 7.83
EV/EBIT (x) 16.33 9.84 10.04 10.22 10.31

Income statement (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total turnover 1,253 1,525 1,637 1,702 1,794
Gross profit 363 553 542 520 526
EBITDA 383 532 534 521 518
Depreciation and amortisation (109) (120) (113) (120) (125)
Operating profit 275 413 420 401 393
Net interest (88) (66) (55) (53) (52)
Pre-tax profit 187 346 365 348 341
Taxation (21) (90) (91) (89) (88)
Reported net profit 167 257 277 262 255
Recurring net profit 167 252 277 269 268

Cash flow (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Change in working capital 92 26 (115) 111 7
Cash flow from operations 388 494 328 550 449
Capex (171) (147) (300) (250) (230)
Cash flow from investing activities (168) (283) (291) (243) (225)
Dividends paid 0 (63) (138) (125) (125)
Cash flow from financing activities (104) (15) (252) (255) (252)
Cash at beginning of period 25 141 337 122 174
Net change in cash 115 196 (215) 52 (28)
Ending balance cash 141 337 122 174 145

Balance sheet (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total cash and equivalents 141 337 122 174 145
Tangible fixed assets 2,540 2,655 2,858 3,005 3,126
Total assets 4,582 4,960 4,866 5,117 5,200
Short-term debt 213 56 56 56 56
Total long-term debt 1,414 1,332 1,282 1,212 1,142
Total liabilities 2,339 2,133 1,903 2,013 1,957
Total equity 2,244 2,826 2,962 3,103 3,243
Total liabilities & equity 4,582 4,960 4,866 5,117 5,200

Key metrics

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Revenue growth (%) (28.4) 21.7 7.4 3.9 5.4
Recurrent EPS growth (%) (67.3) 50.5 9.8 (2.9) (0.3)
Gross margin (%) 29.0 36.2 33.1 30.6 29.3
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 30.6 34.9 32.6 30.6 28.8
Net profit margin (%) 13.3 16.9 16.9 15.4 14.2
Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 51.0 49.7 47.7 49.0
Capex/sales (%) 13.6 9.6 18.3 14.7 12.8
Interest cover (x) 3.03 5.64 6.51 6.68 6.89

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


Figure 1: JPG’s progress on ESG factors

ENVIRONMENT 2022 2023 2024
GHG emissions Emissions (tCO2e) 338,709 314,946 331,859
GHG emissions Intensity (tCO2e per tonne of palm product) 0.93 0.92 0.89
Waste treatment Recycling/Repurposing of waste Yes Yes Yes
Energy efficiency (water) Water usage (m3) and intensity (m3/tonne of palm product) 1,528,116 1,545,838 1,591,861
Energy efficiency Energy consumption and intensity 243,433.00 218,824.00 228,932.00
Certifications RSPO/MSPO/ISPO certified (%) RSPO: 100%
MSPO: 100%
ISPO: N/A
RSPO: 100%
MSPO: 100%
ISPO: N/A
RSPO: 100%
MSPO: 100%
ISPO: N/A
Use of peat land Peat land (%) 2.3% 2.3% 2.1%
Fire accidents Number of accidents N/A None None
Usage of renewable energy % of renewable energy used 57.0% 62.1% 62.1%
Traceability Traceable to mills (%) 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Traceable to plantation (%) 87.52% 85.86% 93.96%
SOCIAL
Channels for workers to raise concerns Existence of grievance channels to raise concerns Yes Yes Yes
Whistleblowing policy Policies to protect whistleblowers Yes Yes Yes
Employees’ professional/personal development Provision of training and education Yes Yes Yes
Policy for smallholders Policy in place for training, yield improvement and RSPO certification Yes Yes Yes
Employees’ welfare Accommodation and amenities provided Yes Yes Yes
GOVERNANCE
Board composition At least half of the board being independent directors 6/10 are independent 5/9 are independent
Limiting to nine years (for independent directors) Limitation of tenure to nine years (for independent directors) Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable
Gender inclusivity Female representation in the board 30% 22.2%
Emphasis of sustainability at board level Formation of a sustainability group Yes Yes Yes
Remuneration transparency Full disclosure of fees and benefits on named basis Yes Yes Yes

Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 2: Key assumptions for JPG

FY22 FY23 FY24F FY25F FY26F FY27F
Nucleus FFB production (tonnes) 1,111,496 1,034,153 1,130,253 1,166,689 1,219,317 1,282,415
% change 7.4% -7.0% 9.3% 3.2% 4.5% 5.2%
CPO price assumptions (MYR/tonne) 5,177 3,989 4,331 4,223 4,120 4,120
% change 17.1% -22.9% 8.6% -2.5% -2.4% 0.0%
PK price assumptions (MYR/tonne) 3,218 2,223 2,875 3,449 3,449 3,449
% change 11.5% -30.9% 29.3% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0%

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


Recommendation Chart

A line chart displays the price close of JPG MK from July 2024 to May 2025. The price fluctuates, starting below 1.00, rising to a peak of around 1.35, and then settling around 1.20. Markers on the chart indicate ‘Buy’ recommendations with target prices (TP) at various points: TP 1.20, TP 1.50, TP 1.55, TP 1.65, and TP 1.55.

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

Date Recommendation Target Price Price
2025-05-19 Buy 1.55 1.18
2025-02-18 Buy 1.65 1.16
2024-11-14 Buy 1.55 1.32
2024-11-11 Buy 1.50 1.35
2024-09-06 Buy 1.20 0.99

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

See important disclosures at the end of this report


RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months

Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain

Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months

Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels

Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months

Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

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