IOI Corp (ΙΟΙ ΜΚ) [Malaysia Company Update: Undervalued Big Cap, BUY Maintained]

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IOI Corp (ΙΟΙ ΜΚ) Report


IOI Corp (ΙΟΙ ΜΚ) [Malaysia Company Update: Undervalued Big Cap, BUY Maintained]

RHB

9 July 2025

Malaysia Company Update

Agriculture | Plantation

Shariah Compliant

IOI Corp (ΙΟΙ ΜΚ)

Undervalued Big Cap; Keep BUY

  • Maintain BUY, with new MYR4.30 from MYR4.60 TP, 15% upside and c.3% FY26F (Jun). We expect 2026 to be a more balanced year fundamentally, with lower YoY CPO prices, but geopolitical risks will translate to more volatility. We lower our CPO, but raise our PK price assumptions for FY25-27. IOI Corp remains undervalued, trading at 17x FY26F, at the low end of its peer range of 17-22x.
  • Spot CPO prices have moderated from MYR4,600-4,800/tonne in 1Q25 to a low of MYR3,780 in May, only to bounce back to MYR3,900-MYR4,100 currently. The decline was mainly driven by geopolitics in the light of US trade tariffs, wars, and crude oil prices falling as a result, all of which pushed CPO prices in the same direction. We highlight that the correlation between CPO prices and crude oil prices surged to 0.47 in Apr 2025 from -0.6 in 1Q25, and subsequently rose further to the current levels of 0.68, due to more geopolitical risks.
  • What’s next for CPO prices? We expect CPO prices to remain volatile given the ever-changing geopolitical situation. Fundamentally however, global supply and demand will likely be more balanced in 2026F, as supply improves, while demand should pick up given the more attractive relative prices.
  • Supply of 17 oils and fats complex is expected to improve YoY in 2026F, coming from a partial recovery of palm, sunflower and rapeseed supplies, as well as continued growth from soybeans. Still, the stock/usage ratio of the 17 oils and fats complex is still expected to remain below the historical average of 13.6%, at 12.9% for Oct 2025F/Sep 2026F, albeit up from 12.7% in 2025F. This leaves very little cushion in case of any short-term bullish supply or demand surprises, hence raising the risk of price volatility going forward.
  • What does this mean for relative prices of vegetable oils and demand? Ignoring the noises from geopolitics, we expect 2026F to see: i) Muted soybean prices, due to continued strong supply in 2026F; ii) SBO prices remain supported at higher levels, due to the higher demand from increased US biofuel blending; iii) CPO prices to continue trading at a discount to SBO in the medium term (currently at USD217/tonne discount); and iv) demand from price sensitive countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh come back.
  • We trim our CPO price to MYR4,100/tonne (from MYR4,300) for 2025F and to MYR4,000 (from MYR4,100) for 2026F and 2027F; but raise PK prices to MYR3,300/tonne for 2025F (from MYR2,800) and to MYR3,200 for 2026F and 2027F (from MYR2,600). We also update for our latest in-house forex assumptions and adjust forecasts by 1.5%, -2.3% and -0.1% for FY25-27.
  • Maintain BUY. We have raised IOI’s ESG score to 3.1 (from 3.0), rolled forward our valuation target to 2026 and brought down its plantation division P/E target to 18x 2026F (from 20x 2025F), after updating its current historical average. With this, our TP is lowered to MYR4.30.

Buy (Maintained)

Target Price (Return): MYR4.30 (+15%)
Price (Market Cap): MYR3.74 (USD5,495m)
ESG score: 3.1 (out of 4)
Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 6.03m/1.40m

Analysts

Hoe Lee Leng
+603 2302 8110
hoe.lee.leng@rhbgroup.com

Iftaar Hakim Rusli
+603-23028114
iftaar.hakim.rusli@rhbgroup.com

Share Performance (%)

YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m
Absolute (3.6) 3.9 1.1 (2.9) 1.1
Relative 2.0 1.1 (2.0) 2.0 5.2
52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 3.46 – 4.05

Source: Bloomberg

Forecasts and Valuation

Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25F Jun-26F Jun-27F
Total turnover (MYRm) 11,584 9,604 13,112 13,071 12,994
Recurring net profit (MYRm) 1,498 1,253 1,262 1,335 1,368
Recurring net profit growth (%) (24.3) (16.3) 0.7 5.8 2.5
Recurring P/E (x) 15.50 18.53 18.41 17.39 16.97
P/B (x) 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7
P/CF (x) 13.75 17.02 23.24 13.11 12.72
Dividend Yield (%) 4.0 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.89 11.34 10.71 10.40 10.12
Return on average equity (%) 10.0 10.8 10.5 10.5 10.2
Net debt to equity (%) 13.5 13.1 14.2 9.5 5.0

Source: Company data, RHB

Overall ESG Score: 3.1 (out of 4)

E Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)

S Score: 2.7 (GOOD)

G Score: 3.0 (GOOD)

Please refer to the ESG analysis on the next page


Emissions And ESG

Trend analysis

In 2024, Scope 1 emissions decreased to 0.7m tonnes of CO2 equivalents (2023: 1.1m tonnes of CO2 equivalents) while Scope 3 emissions decreased to 4.4m tonnes of CO2 equivalents (2023: 6.7m tonnes of CO2 equivalents).

Emissions (tCO2e)
Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25
Scope 1 1,244,966 1,061,676 745,129 na
Scope 2 39,772 39,771 32,423 na
Scope 3 6,709,998 6,709,998 4,385,920 na
Total emissions 7,994,736 7,811,445 5,163,472 na

Source: Company data, RHB

Latest ESG-Related Developments

Sustainability certification: As of end FY24, 100% of IOI’s mills and 96% of its estates are RSPO certified.

Traceability: as of end-FY24, IOI managed to achieve 100% traceability to plantation and mills.

Reducing GHG emissions: IOI plans to reduce its Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 40% by 2025 against its 2015 carbon intensity emissions and to achieve net-zero for Scope 1,2 and 3 by 2040.

ESG Unbundled

Overall ESG Score: 3.1 (out of 4)
Last Updated: 2 July 2025

E Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)
IOI discloses its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from each operating segment, and is forecasted to reduce its GHG emissions intensity by 19% in 2020 (from 2015) and 41% by 2025. This is likely to surpass Malaysia’s national commitment to reduce carbon emission intensity by 45% from its 2005 baseline, by 2030.

S Score: 2.7 (GOOD)
In 2017, IOI published its Foreign Workers Recruitment Guideline, which was developed with various stakeholders including NGOs. IOI is committed to ensuring continuous and consistent practices of human rights, while uniform labour laws are adhered to, via internal audits conducted by its sustainability team.

G Score: 3.0 (GOOD)
57% of IOI’s board members are independent, with full disclosure on director remuneration including salaries and bonuses on a named basis. IOI has an in-house investor relations team and holds investor meetings regularly, embodying good transparency and disclosure practices.

ESG Rating History

[Chart data not available in text format]

Source: RHB


Financial Exhibits

Asia
Malaysia
Agriculture
IOI Corp
ΙΟΙ ΜΚ
Buy

Valuation basis

We use SOP valuation comprising target P/E of 18x 2026F for the plantation division and 18x for the downstream divisions as well as our target price for associate Bumitama Agri. This is backed up by an EV/ha of USD35,000/ha, which is at the higher end of its Malaysian big-cap peers.

Key drivers

  1. CPO price movement;
  2. FFB production output;
  3. Competitiveness of its downstream processing division vs its peers.

Key risks

  1. CPO price movement;
  2. Weather risks;
  3. The demand and supply dynamics of the global vegetable oil industry.

Company Profile

IOI Corp is a large integrated palm oil producer, with oil palm plantation land in Malaysia and Indonesia. It also has downstream manufacturing facilities like refineries, oleochemical, and specialty fats manufacturing plants.

Financial summary (MYR)

Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25F Jun-26F Jun-27F
Recurring EPS 0.24 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.22
DPS 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11
BVPS 1.82 1.88 1.98 2.09 2.21
Return on average equity (%) 10.0 10.8 10.5 10.5 10.2

Valuation metrics

Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25F Jun-26F Jun-27F
Recurring P/E (x) 15.50 18.53 18.41 17.39 16.97
P/B (x) 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7
FCF Yield (%) 4.7 3.0 1.7 5.0 5.3
Dividend Yield (%) 4.0 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.89 11.34 10.71 10.40 10.12
EV/EBIT (x) 13.88 14.59 13.60 13.27 13.01

Income statement (MYRm)

Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25F Jun-26F Jun-27F
Total turnover 11,584 9,604 13,112 13,071 12,994
Gross profit 3,341 2,343 2,860 2,877 2,877
EBITDA 1,741 1,672 1,822 1,859 1,883
Depreciation and amortisation (374) (373) (387) (403) (418)
Operating profit 1,367 1,299 1,435 1,456 1,465
Net interest (115) (118) (127) (114) (93)
Pre-tax profit 1,526 1,536 1,697 1,776 1,812
Taxation (396) (282) (415) (421) (424)
Reported net profit 1,114 1,247 1,262 1,335 1,368
Recurring net profit 1,498 1,253 1,262 1,335 1,368

Cash flow (MYRm)

Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25F Jun-26F Jun-27F
Change in working capital 673 (31) (670) 14 19
Cash flow from operations 1,689 1,364 999 1,772 1,826
Capex (605) (664) (600) (600) (600)
Cash flow from investing activities 90 (493) (600) (600) (600)
Dividends paid (869) (589) (621) (652) (652)
Cash flow from financing activities (2,503) (796) (1,121) (1,152) (1,152)
Cash at beginning of period 2,553 2,235 2,182 1,460 1,480
Net change in cash (725) 75 (722) 20 74
Ending balance cash 1,851 2,314 1,460 1,480 1,554

Balance sheet (MYRm)

Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25F Jun-26F Jun-27F
Total cash and equivalents 2,235 2,182 1,460 1,480 1,554
Tangible fixed assets 8,995 9,229 9,442 9,639 9,821
Total investments 3,013 3,103 3,103 3,103 3,103
Total assets 17,582 17,942 18,391 18,591 18,821
Short-term debt 862 709 709 709 709
Total long-term debt 2,951 3,047 2,547 2,047 1,547
Total liabilities 5,910 5,932 5,720 5,216 4,710
Total equity 11,672 12,011 12,671 13,375 14,111
Total liabilities & equity 17,582 17,942 18,391 18,591 18,821

Key metrics

Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25F Jun-26F Jun-27F
Revenue growth (%) (25.6) (17.1) 36.5 (0.3) (0.6)
Recurrent EPS growth (%) (24.2) (16.3) 0.7 5.8 2.5
Gross margin (%) 28.8 24.4 21.8 22.0 22.1
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 15.0 17.4 13.9 14.2 14.5
Net profit margin (%) 9.6 13.0 9.6 10.2 10.5
Dividend payout ratio (%) 82.4 47.5 49.2 48.8 47.7
Capex/sales (%) 5.2 6.9 4.6 4.6 4.6
Interest cover (x) 9.15 8.11 10.05 11.86 14.26

Source: Company data, RHB


Figure 1: IOI’s progress on ESG factors

2021 2022 2023 2024
ENVIRONMENT
GHG emissions Emissions (tCO2e) 9,823,259.44 7,994,735.94 7,811,444.72 5,163,472.33
GHG emissions Intensity (tCO2e per tonne of palm product) 1.76 1.71 1.80 1.30
Waste treatment Recycling/Repurposing of waste Yes Yes Yes Yes
Energy efficiency (water) Water usage (m3) and intensity (m3/tonne of palm product) 19,058,090
Intensity: 3.90
12,778,240
Intensity: 3.70
5,306,974*
Intensity: 3.97
3,871,675*
Intensity: 3.57
Energy efficiency Energy consumption and intensity 8,061,037 6,879,046 10,490,316 9,668,046
Certifications RSPO/MSPO/ISPO certified (%) RSPO: >90% mills
MSPO: 100% MY operation
ISPO: not disclosed
RSPO: >90% mills
MSPO: 100% MY operation
ISPO: not disclosed
RSPO: 100% mills and 94% estates
MSPO: 100% MY operation
ISPO: not disclosed
RSPO: 100% mills and 96% estates
MSPO: 100% MY operation
ISPO: not disclosed
Use of peat land Peat land (%) 2.1% 2.1% 3.8% 4.3%
Fire accidents Number of accidents 3 1 3 3
Usage of renewable energy % of renewable energy used 45.2% 25.5% 54.4% 53.9%
Traceability Traceable to mills (%) 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Traceability Traceable to plantation (%) 83.00% 83.00% 100.00% 100.00%
SOCIAL
Channels for workers to raise concerns Existence of grievance channels to raise concerns Yes Yes Yes Yes
Whistleblowing policy Policies to protect whistleblowers Yes Yes Yes Yes
Employees’ professional/personal development Provision of training and education Yes Yes Yes Yes
Policy for smallholders Policy in place for training, yield improvement and RSPO certification Yes Yes Yes Yes
Employees’ welfare Accommodation and amenities provided Yes Yes Yes Yes
GOVERNANCE
Board composition At least half of the board being independent directors 5/7 are independent 5/8 are independent 6/9 are independent 4/7 are independent
Limiting to nine years (for independent directors) Limitation of tenure to nine years (for independent directors) No No Yes Yes
Gender inclusivity Female representation in the board 28.6% 37.5% 44.4% 42.9%
Emphasis of sustainability at board level Formation of a sustainability group Yes Yes Yes Yes
Remuneration transparency Full disclosure of fees and benefits on named basis Yes Yes Yes Yes

Note: * Water efficiency data drastically different YoY likely due to a change in reporting/calculation
Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 2: IOI’s forecast assumptions

FYE Jun FY23 FY24 FY25F FY26F FY27F
CPO selling price (MYR/tonne) 4,118 3,856 4,100 4,050 4,000
PK selling price (MYR/tonne) 2,233 2,210 2,900 3,250 3,200
FFB production growth (%) (1.5) 4.4 1.3 4.0 4.7

Source: RHB


Figure 3: SOP valuation

Valuation basis FV (MYRm)
Plantation earnings (excluding net interest) 18x CY26F P/E 24,648.51
Manufacturing earnings 18x CY26F P/E 1,709.61
Add: 32.1% stake in Bumitama Agri RHB’s fair value of SGD0.80/share 1,469.58
Less: Net debt (3QFY25) (1,564.00)
SOP (MYRm) 26,138.80
No of shares* 6,204
SOP/share (MYR) 4.21
ESG premium/(discount) 0.08
TP (MYR) 4.30

Note: *Excludes treasury shares
Source: RHB

Recommendation Chart

Date Recommendation Target Price Price
2025-05-27 Buy 4.60 3.72
2025-02-25 Buy 4.90 3.82
2024-11-26 Buy 4.90 3.80
2024-11-11 Buy 4.90 3.95
2024-08-27 Buy 4.50 3.84
2024-08-11 Buy 4.45 3.73
2024-07-16 Buy 4.33 3.70
2024-05-26 Buy 4.40 3.98
2024-02-25 Buy 4.75 3.99
2023-11-28 Buy 4.65 3.99
2023-11-20 Buy 4.80 3.95
2023-08-23 Buy 4.55 3.97
2023-08-22 Buy 4.55 4.05
2023-07-23 Buy 4.75 4.07
2023-05-30 Buy 4.35 3.91

Source: RHB, Bloomberg


RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

  • Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
  • Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
  • Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
  • Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
  • Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
  • Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

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As a result of the same, in the ordinary course of its business, any member of the RHBIB Group, may, from time to time, have business relationships with, hold any positions in the securities and/or capital market products (including but not limited to shares, warrants, and/or derivatives), trade or otherwise effect transactions for its own account or the account of its customers or perform and/or solicit investment, advisory or other services from any of the subject company(ies) covered in this research report.

While the RHBIB Group will ensure that there are sufficient information barriers and internal controls in place where necessary, to prevent/manage any conflicts of interest to ensure the independence of this report, investors should also be aware that such conflict of interest may exist in view of the investment banking activities undertaken by the RHBIB Group as mentioned above and should exercise their own judgement before making any investment decisions.

In Singapore, investment research activities are conducted under RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch), and the disclaimers above similarly apply.

Malaysia

Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Jul 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, RHBIB hereby declares that:

  1. RHBIB does not have a financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
  2. RHBIB is not a market maker in the securities or capital market products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
  3. None of RHBIB’s staff or associated person serve as a director or board member* of the subject company(ies) covered in this report
    *For the avoidance of doubt, the confirmation is only limited to the staff of research department
  4. RHBIB did not receive compensation for investment banking or corporate finance services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
  5. RHBIB did not receive compensation or benefit (including gift and special cost arrangement e.g. company/issuer-sponsored and paid trip) in relation to the production of this report.

Indonesia

Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Jul 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia hereby declares that:

  1. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia and its investment analysts, does not have any interest in the securities of the subject company(ies) covered in this report. For the avoidance of doubt, interest in securities include the following:
    1. Holding directly or indirectly, individually or jointly own/hold securities or entitled for dividends, interest or proceeds from the sale or exercise of the subject company’s securities covered in this report*;
    2. Being bound by an agreement to purchase securities or has the right to transfer the securities or has the right to pre subscribe the securities*.
    3. Being bound or required to buy the remaining securities that are not subscribed/placed out pursuant to an Initial Public Offering*.
    4. Managing or jointly with other parties managing such parties as referred to in (a), (b) or (c) above.
  2. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia is not a market maker in the securities or capital market products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
  3. None of PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia’s staff** or associated person serve as a director or board member* of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
  4. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia did not receive compensation for investment banking or corporate finance services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
  5. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia** did not receive compensation or benefit (including gift and special cost arrangement e.g. company/issuer-sponsored and paid trip) in relation to the production of this report:
    Notes:
    *The overall disclosure is limited to information pertaining to PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia only.
    **The disclosure is limited to Research staff of PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia only.

Singapore

Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Jul 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, the Singapore Research department of RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) hereby declares that:

  1. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or associated companies do not make a market in any issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  2. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies and its analysts do not have a financial interest (including a shareholding of 1% or more) in the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  3. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research staff or connected persons do not serve on the board or trustee positions of the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  4. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not have and have not within the last 12 months had any corporate finance advisory relationship with the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report or any other relationship that may create a potential conflict of interest.
  5. RHB Bank Berhad, or person associated or connected to it do not have any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, the securities, specified securities based derivatives contracts or units in a collective investment scheme covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  6. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research analysts do not receive any compensation or benefit in connection with the production of this research report or recommendation on the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts.

Analyst Certification

The analyst(s) who prepared this report, and their associates hereby, certify that:

  1. they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for:
    Analyst Company
  2. no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

KUALA LUMPUR

RHB Investment Bank Bhd
Level 3A, Tower One, RHB Centre
Jalan Tun Razak
Kuala Lumpur 50400
Malaysia
Tel: +603 2302 8100
Fax: +603 2302 8134

JAKARTA

PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia
Revenue Tower, 11th Floor, District 8 – SCBD
Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav 52-53
Jakarta 12190
Indonesia
Tel: +6221 5093 9888
Fax: +6221 5093 9777

SINGAPORE

RHB Bank Berhad (Singapore branch)
90 Cecil Street
#04-00 RHB Bank Building
Singapore 069531
Fax: +65 6509 0470



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