马来西亚股票分析报告

# Sarawak Oil Palms: Solid Fundamentals, Appealing Valuation; Keep BUY

9 July 2025

Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP MK)

Agriculture | Plantation

Solid Fundamentals, Appealing Valuation; Keep BUY

  • Keep BUY, with new MYR3.80 from MYR4.80 TP, 22% upside and c.4% FY26F yield. We expect 2026 to be a more balanced year fundamentally, with lower YoY CPO prices, but geopolitical risks will translate to more volatility. We lower our CPO, but raise our PK price assumptions for FY25-27. We continue to like Sarawak Oil Palms for its pure play strategy, coupled with attractive valuation. The counter currently trades at 6x FY26F P/E, at the low end of its peer average of 6-11x.
  • Spot CPO prices have moderated from MYR4,600-4,800/tonne in 1Q25 to a low of MYR3,780 in May, only to bounce back to MYR3,900-MYR4,100 currently. The decline was mainly driven by geopolitics in the light of US trade tariffs, wars, and crude oil prices falling as a result, all of which pushed CPO prices in the same direction. We highlight that the correlation between CPO prices and crude oil prices surged to 0.47 in Apr 2025 from -0.6 in 1Q25, and subsequently rose further to the current levels of 0.68, due to more geopolitical risks.
  • What’s next for CPO prices? We expect CPO prices to remain volatile given the ever-changing geopolitical situation. Fundamentally however, global supply and demand will likely be more balanced in 2026F, as supply improves, while demand should pick up given the more attractive relative prices.
  • Supply of 17 oils and fats complex is expected to improve YoY in 2026F, coming from a partial recovery of palm, sunflower and rapeseed supplies, as well as continued growth from soybeans. Still, the stock/usage ratio of the 17 oils and fats complex is still expected to remain below the historical average of 13.6%, at 12.9% for Oct 2025F/Sep 2026F, albeit up from 12.7% in 2025F. This leaves very little cushion in case of any short-term bullish supply or demand surprises, hence raising the risk of price volatility going forward.
  • What does this mean for relative prices of vegetable oils and demand? Ignoring the noises from geopolitics, we expect 2026F to see: i) Muted soybean prices, due to continued strong supply in 2026F; ii) SBO prices remain supported at higher levels, due to the higher demand from increased US biofuel blending; iii) CPO prices to continue trading at a discount to SBO in the medium term (currently at USD217/tonne discount); and iv) demand from price sensitive countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh come back.
  • We trim our CPO price to MYR4,100/tonne (from MYR4,300) for 2025F and to MYR4,000 (from MYR4,100) for 2026F and 2027F; but raise PK prices to MYR3,300/tonne for 2025F (from MYR2,800) and to MYR3,200 for 2026F and 2027F (from MYR2,600). We also update for our latest in-house forex assumptions and adjust forecasts up by 4.3%, 7.3% and 7.8% for FY25-27.
  • Maintain BUY. We keep SOP’s ESG score at 2.3 and roll forward our valuation target to 2026F. With this, our TP is lowered to MYR3.80 (from MYR4.80), based on a new 8x FY26F P/E (from 10x FY26F P/E), in line with its updated historical average.

Buy (Maintained)

Target Price (Return): MYR3.80 (+22%)

Price (Market Cap): MYR3.12 (USD661m)

ESG score: 2.3 (out of 4)

Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 0.39m/0.09m


Analysts

Hoe Lee Leng
+603 2302 8110
hoe.lee.leng@rhbgroup.com

Iftaar Hakim Rusli
+603-23028114
iftaar.hakim.rusli@rhbgroup.com


Share Performance (%)

YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m
Absolute (1.9) 1.6 4.3 0.0 10.2
Relative 3.7 (1.2) 1.2 4.9 14.3

52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 2.71 – 3.66

Forecasts and Valuation

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total turnover (MYRm) 5,124 5,314 5,241 5,185 5,135
Recurring net profit (MYRm) 302 447 520 488 478
Recurring net profit growth (%) (39.8) 48.1 16.5 (6.2) (2.2)
Recurring P/E (x) 9.21 6.22 5.34 5.69 5.82
P/B (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
P/CF (x) 7.54 4.30 3.67 3.99 3.99
Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 7.0 4.2 3.8 3.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.15 3.78 2.93 2.67 2.33
Return on average equity (%) 8.8 12.2 13.0 11.1 10.0
Net debt to equity (%) 1.8 net cash net cash net cash net cash

Source: Company data, RHB

Overall ESG Score: 2.3 (out of 4)

E Score: 2.3 (GOOD)

S Score: 2.0 (MODERATE)

G Score: 2.7 (GOOD)

Please refer to the ESG analysis on the next page


See important disclosures at the end of this report

Sarawak Oil Palms

9 July 2025

Malaysia Company Update

Agriculture | Plantation

Emissions And ESG

Trend analysis

In 2024, Scope 1 emissions decreased to 189k tonnes of CO2 equivalents (2023: 269k tonnes of CO2 equivalents) but Scope 2 emissions also increased to 44k tonnes of CO2 equivalents (2023: 25k tonnes of CO2 equivalents). Additionally, SOP disclosed Scope 3 emissions for the first time.

Emissions (tCO2e) Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25
Scope 1 281,756 269,481 189,744 na
Scope 2 38,742 24,956 44,017 na
Scope 3 810 na
Total emissions 320,498 294,437 234,571 na

Source: Company data, RHB

Latest ESG-Related Developments

Sustainability certification: As of end 2024, 100% of SOP’s operations are MSPO certified.

Traceability: as of end-2024, SOP managed to maintain 100% traceability to mills and achieved 94% traceability to plantation for its mills.

Reducing GHG emissions: SOP commits to reduce GHG emissions with the installation of methane capture systems at all seven POMs. (4 have been completed as at FY24) to reduce emissions at all mills.

ESG Unbundled

Overall ESG Score: 2.3 (out of 4)

Last Updated: 2 July 2025

E Score: 2.3 (GOOD)
While Sarawak Oil Palms is committed to no further development on peat areas, 45% of its landbank is still planted on peat. The company has reported a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity since 2017 for its estates. The company is fully Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil-certified for its mills and estates.

S Score: 2.0 (MODERATE)
Sarawak Oil Palms is committed to free, prior and informed consent for all its employees. Its fatality accident rate has remained low, while the lost time injury frequency rate continues to trend lower. The company has not had any major labour issues in the last two years.

G Score: 2.7 (GOOD)
30% of SOP’s board members are independent, and 40% of its members are women. Additionally, it provides full disclosure on director remuneration, which includes salaries and bonuses and on a named basis. The company has an in-house investor relations team and holds briefings regularly, embodying good transparency and disclosure practices.

ESG Rating History

Source: RHB


See important disclosures at the end of this report

Sarawak Oil Palms

9 July 2025

Malaysia Company Update

Agriculture | Plantation

Financial Exhibits

Valuation basis

We apply a target P/E of 8x on Dec-2026F earnings, backed up by an EV/ha of USD10,000/ha, at the mid end of its peer average of USD8,000-15,000/ha.

Key drivers

  1. CPO price movement;
  2. FFB production output;
  3. Competitiveness of its downstream processing division vs peers.

Key risks

  1. CPO price movement;
  2. Weather risks;
  3. Demand and supply dynamics of the global vegetable oil industry.

Company Profile

Sarawak Oil Palms is involved in oil palm cultivation and CPO refining in the state of Sarawak.

Financial summary (MYR)

Recurring EPS 0.34 0.50 0.58 0.55 0.54
DPS 0.05 0.22 0.13 0.12 0.12
BVPS 3.95 4.29 4.74 5.17 5.58
Return on average equity (%) 8.8 12.2 13.0 11.1 10.0

Valuation metrics

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Recurring P/E (x) 9.21 6.22 5.34 5.69 5.82
P/B (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
FCF Yield (%) 7.9 15.1 19.4 16.7 16.2
Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 7.0 4.2 3.8 3.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.15 3.78 2.93 2.67 2.33
EV/EBIT (x) 7.43 4.94 3.69 3.46 3.09

Income statement (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total turnover 5,124 5,314 5,241 5,185 5,135
Gross profit 744 644 712 684 689
EBITDA 583 762 843 799 778
Depreciation and amortisation (179) (180) (173) (182) (192)
Operating profit 404 582 670 616 586
Net interest 14 34 34 51 67
Pre-tax profit 421 616 706 669 655
Taxation (106) (150) (169) (161) (157)
Reported net profit 301 447 520 488 478
Recurring net profit 302 447 520 488 478

Cash flow (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Change in working capital (113) (3) 46 5 6
Cash flow from operations 368 645 756 695 696
Capex (148) (227) (217) (232) (247)
Cash flow from investing activities (832) (299) (217) (232) (247)
Dividends paid (42) (193) (116) (107) (107)
Cash flow from financing activities (12) (523) (328) (319) (319)
Cash at beginning of period 1,254 779 599 809 955
Net change in cash (475) (177) 211 145 130
Ending balance cash 779 599 809 955 1,085

Balance sheet (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total cash and equivalents 779 599 809 955 1,085
Tangible fixed assets 2,485 2,503 2,548 2,597 2,651
Total assets 5,213 5,211 5,412 5,600 5,775
Short-term debt 622 308 202 96 (10)
Total long-term debt 223 220 114 8 (98)
Total liabilities 1,541 1,225 1,005 791 576
Total equity 3,672 3,986 4,407 4,809 5,200
Total liabilities & equity 5,213 5,211 5,412 5,600 5,775

Key metrics

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Revenue growth (%) (3.5) 3.7 (1.4) (1.1) (1.0)
Recurrent EPS growth (%) (40.5) 48.1 16.5 (6.2) (2.2)
Gross margin (%) 14.5 12.1 13.6 13.2 13.4
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 11.4 14.3 16.1 15.4 15.2
Net profit margin (%) 5.9 8.4 9.9 9.4 9.3
Dividend payout ratio (%) 14.0 43.3 22.2 21.9 22.4
Capex/sales (%) 2.9 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.8
Interest cover (x) 12.1 30.5 63.6 117.7 (9,684.5)

Source: Company data, RHB


See important disclosures at the end of this report

Sarawak Oil Palms

9 July 2025

Malaysia Company Update

Agriculture | Plantation

Figure 1: SOP’s progress on ESG factors

2022 2023 2024
ENVIRONMENT
GHG emissions Emissions (tCO2e) 255,266 212,236 234,571
GHG emissions Intensity (tCO2e per tonne of palm product) 0.3 0.24 0.25
Waste treatment Recycling/Repurposing of waste Yes Yes Yes
Energy efficiency (water) Water usage (m3) and intensity (m3/tonne of palm product) 3,960,000 3,241,699 2,777,597
Energy efficiency Energy consumption and intensity 1,323,629 1,489,872 2,397,643
Certifications RSPO/MSPO/ISPO certified (%) RSPO: Nil
MSPO: 100%
ISPO: N/A
RSPO: Nil
MSPO: 100%
ISPO: N/A
RSPO: Nil
MSPO: 100%
ISPO: N/A
Use of peat land Peat land (%) 45.0% 45.0% 45.0%
Fire accidents Number of accidents None None None
Usage of renewable energy % of renewable energy used 59.8% 63.2% 77.6%
Traceability Traceable to mills (%) 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Traceability Traceable to plantation (%) 47.20% 45.00% 93.70%*
SOCIAL
Channels for workers to raise concerns Existence of grievance channels to raise concerns Yes Yes Yes
Whistleblowing policy Policies to protect whistleblowers Yes Yes Yes
Employees’ professional/personal development Provision of training and education Yes Yes Yes
Policy for smallholders* Policy in place for training, yield improvement and RSPO certification Yes Yes Yes
Employees’ welfare Accommodation and amenities provided Yes Yes Yes
GOVERNANCE
Board composition At least half of the board being independent directors 3/10 are independent 3/9are independent 3/10 are independent
Limiting to nine years (for independent directors) Limitation of tenure to nine years (for independent directors) Yes Yes Yes
Gender inclusivity Female representation in the board 50.0% 44.4% 40.0%
Emphasis of sustainability at board level Formation of a sustainability group 3/10 are independent 3/9are independent 3/10 are independent
Remuneration transparency Full disclosure of fees and benefits on named basis Yes Yes Yes

Note: *Referring to TTP at SOP mills
Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 2: Key assumptions

FY23 FY24 FY25F FY26F FY27F
FFB production, tonnes 1,226,566 1,250,346 1,326,931 1,388,115 1,424,204
% change 2.7% 1.9% 6.1% 4.6% 2.6%
Effective CPO price (MYR) 3,832 4,230 4,100 4,000 4,000

Source: Company data, RHB


See important disclosures at the end of this report

Sarawak Oil Palms

9 July 2025

Malaysia Company Update

Agriculture | Plantation

Recommendation Chart

Date Recommendation Target Price Price
2025-03-03 Buy 4.80 3.09
2024-11-28 Buy 4.15 3.40
2024-11-11 Buy 4.15 3.61
2024-10-07 Buy na 3.14
2024-08-30 Buy 3.60 2.93
2024-08-12 Buy 3.25 2.83
2024-05-19 Buy 3.30 2.90
2024-02-29 Buy 3.20 2.84
2023-11-29 Buy 2.95 2.58
2023-11-20 Buy 2.80 2.59
2023-08-28 Buy 2.85 2.55
2023-07-23 Buy 3.00 2.60
2023-05-22 Sell 2.00 2.46
2023-04-18 Neutral 2.50 2.46
2023-03-01 Neutral 2.75 2.55

Source: RHB, Bloomberg


See important disclosures at the end of this report

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months

Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain

Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months

Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels

Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months

Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage


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    2. Being bound by an agreement to purchase securities or has the right to transfer the securities or has the right to pre subscribe the securities*.
    3. Being bound or required to buy the remaining securities that are not subscribed/placed out pursuant to an Initial Public Offering*.
    4. Managing or jointly with other parties managing such parties as referred to in (a), (b) or (c) above.
  2. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia is not a market maker in the securities or capital market products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
  3. None of PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia’s staff** or associated person serve as a director or board member* of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.
  4. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia did not receive compensation for investment banking or corporate finance services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
  5. PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia** did not receive compensation or benefit (including gift and special cost arrangement e.g. company/issuer-sponsored and paid trip) in relation to the production of this report:

Notes:
*The overall disclosure is limited to information pertaining to PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia only.
**The disclosure is limited to Research staff of PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia only.

Singapore

Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Jul 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, the Singapore Research department of RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) hereby declares that:

  1. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or associated companies do not make a market in any issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  2. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies and its analysts do not have a financial interest (including a shareholding of 1% or more) in the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  3. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research staff or connected persons do not serve on the board or trustee positions of the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  4. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not have and have not within the last 12 months had any corporate finance advisory relationship with the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report or any other relationship that may create a potential conflict of interest.
  5. RHB Bank Berhad, or person associated or connected to it do not have any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, the securities, specified securities based derivatives contracts or units in a collective investment scheme covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
  6. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research analysts do not receive any compensation or benefit in connection with the production of this research report or recommendation on the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts.

Analyst Certification

The analyst(s) who prepared this report, and their associates hereby, certify that:

(1) they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for:

Analyst Company
   

(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

KUALA LUMPUR

RHB Investment Bank Bhd
Level 3A, Tower One, RHB Centre
Jalan Tun Razak
Kuala Lumpur 50400
Malaysia
Tel : +603 2302 8100
Fax : +603 2302 8134

JAKARTA

PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia
Revenue Tower, 11th Floor, District 8 – SCBD
JI. Jendral Sudirman Kav 52-53
Jakarta 12190
Indonesia
Tel : +6221 5093 9888
Fax : +6221 5093 9777

SINGAPORE

RHB Bank Berhad (Singapore branch)
90 Cecil Street
#04-00 RHB Bank Building
Singapore 069531
Fax: +65 6509 0470

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