Tasco Berhad: Momentum Building into 2H
(5140 | TASCO MK) Main | Transportation & Logistics
SHARIAH
Compliant
3 Stars
FTSE4Good
Maintain BUY
Revised Target Price RM0.72 (from RM0.68)
RETURN STATISTICS
| Price @ 6th August 2025 (RM) | 0.48 |
| Expected share price return (%) | +50.0 |
| Expected dividend yield (%) | +3.9 |
| Expected total return (%) | +53.9 |
SHARE PRICE CHART
Price performance (%)
| Absolute | Relative | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month | -2.0 | -1.7 |
| 3 months | -1.0 | -3.5 |
| 12 months | -44.9 | -41.2 |
INVESTMENT STATISTICS
| FYE Mar | 2026E | 2027F | 2028F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,093.4 | 1,131.7 | 1,174.8 |
| Operating Profit | 76.5 | 80.3 | 83.4 |
| PBT | 60.4 | 63.6 | 66.0 |
| Core PATAMI | 49.6 | 52.2 | 54.1 |
| Core EPS | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| DPS | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
KEY STATISTICS
| FBM KLCI | 1,541.48 |
| Issued shares (m) | 800.00 |
| Estimated free float (%) | 28.44 |
| Market Capitalisation (RM’m) | 388.00 |
| 52-wk price range | RM0.45 – RM0.9 |
| 3-mth average daily volume (m) | 0.07 |
| 3-mth average daily value (RM’m) | 0.04 |
| Top Shareholders (%) | |
|---|---|
| Real Fortune Portfolio Sdn Bhd | 9.89 |
| Nippon Yusen KK | 9.59 |
| EPF | 3.10 |
Maintain BUY.
To recap, Tasco’s 1QFY26 (FYE March) results were within expectations, making up 21% of our full-year forecast. Typically, the first quarter is seasonally soft, with stronger activity in 2H (60% of annual revenue) driven by year-end holidays and new product launches by customers. We expect a broad-based recovery driven by increased volumes from newly secured customers. Our target price is revised higher to RM0.72 from RM0.68 (pegged at 11x or -0.5SD below its 5-year historical mean) after rolling over the base year to FY27.
Contract logistics are picking up.
Much of the year-on-year revenue decline stemmed from the contract logistics (CL) division (-20.0% yoy), particularly in customs clearance (-54.0% yoy) following a major customer exit. However, the segment showed signs of recovery with a +23.0%qoq rebound driven by new customers. The CL decline also reflected weaker warehousing handling revenue, while storage remained stable. Warehousing revenue is expected to improve from 3QFY26 as the 600k sq ft SALC reaches full occupancy. Notably, the sharp drop in trucking revenue (-28.1%qoq) was due to the timing of revenue recognition.
Strong momentum in ocean freight forwarding.
The freight forwarding performance was supported by three key customer segments – technology (HVAC condenser units for Al data centres in the US), aerospace (aircraft components exported to the US and the UK), and FMCG (e-cigarettes routed from China to Europe). Management highlighted that while a portion of these shipments is US-bound, the prevailing 19% US import tariff has not materially impacted customer demand or order flows.
Freight forwarding upside tied to vessel space.
Freight rates in recent months have remained relatively stable, with a declining trend compared to a year ago, but are expected to pick up moving into 3QFY26. In addition to shifting capacity to higher-paying markets like China and Vietnam, blank sailings – where scheduled sailings are cancelled to preserve rate levels – have further contributed to space constraints. Even if freight rates remain manageable, space availability may stay relatively constrained during peak periods, which could moderate volume growth despite healthy demand.
Earnings estimates.
We raised our FY27F/FY28F forecasts by +4%, primarily to reflect the contribution from the additional +400,000 sq ft Shah Alam warehouse and +300,000 sq ft Northport warehouse, both of which are under construction and slated for completion by May-26 (mid-1QFY27).
Figure 1: Detailed Segmental Revenue Breakdown
| Division | SALES (RM’000) | Q/Q Comparison | QoQ Comparison | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD-25 | YTD-24 | Up/(Down) | 1QFY2025 | 4QFY2024 | Up/(Down) | 1QFY2025 | 1QFY2024 | Up/(Down) | ||
| Custom Clr | 15,569 | 33,593 | (18,024) -54% | 15,569 | 12,615 | 2,954 23% | 15,569 | 33,593 | (18,024) -54% | |
| Warehouse | 32,765 | 34,401 | (1,636) -5% | 32,765 | 33,881 | (1,116) -3% | 32,765 | 34,401 | (1,636) -5% | |
| In Plant | 6,066 | 6,416 | (350) -5% | 6,066 | 5,951 | 115 2% | 6,066 | 6,416 | (350) -5% | |
| Ecom | 1,369 | 559 | 810 145% | 1,369 | 979 | 390 40% | 1,369 | 559 | 810 145% | |
| Haulage | 13,851 | 12,023 | 1,828 15% | 13,851 | 14,289 | (438) -3% | 13,851 | 12,023 | 1,828 15% | |
| FTL (Trucking) | 15,064 | 15,952 | (888) -6% | 15,064 | 21,171 | (6,107) -29% | 15,064 | 15,952 | (888) -6% | |
| LTL (Trucking) | 5,616 | 5,110 | 506 10% | 5,616 | 7,598 | (1,982) -26% | 5,616 | 5,110 | 506 10% | |
| CSC | 32,170 | 41,090 | (8,920) -22% | 32,170 | 33,459 | (1,290) -4% | 32,170 | 41,090 | (8,920) -22% | |
| AFF | 48,768 | 63,729 | (14,961) -23% | 48,768 | 47,753 | 1,015 2% | 48,768 | 63,729 | (14,961) -23% | |
| FCL (OFF) | 34,894 | 24,395 | 10,500 43% | 34,894 | 30,055 | 4,839 16% | 34,894 | 24,395 | 10,500 43% | |
| LCL (OFF) | 2,637 | 2,697 | (60) -2% | 2,637 | 2,720 | (83) -3% | 2,637 | 2,697 | (60) -2% | |
| OCM | 6,927 | 5,774 | 1,153 20% | 6,927 | 6,018 | 909 15% | 6,927 | 5,774 | 1,153 20% | |
| LLP | 402 | 226 | 176 78% | 402 | 399 | 2 1% | 402 | 226 | 176 78% | |
| Trading | 6,314 | 3,968 | 2,346 59% | 6,314 | 5,697 | 616 11% | 6,314 | 3,968 | 2,346 59% | |
| Support | 0 | 0 0% | 0 | 0 0% | 0 | 0 0% | ||||
| RHQ AM | 157 | 0 | 157 0% | 157 | 157 | 157 | 157 0% | |||
| Total | 222,569 | 249,931 | (27,362) -11% | 222,569 | 222,586 | (18) -0.01% | 222,569 | 249,931 | (27,362) -11% | |
Source: Tasco
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Profit or Loss (RM’m)
| 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027F | 2028F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,072.7 | 1,011.7 | 1,093.4 | 1,131.7 | 1,174.8 |
| Operating Profit | 87.3 | 57.9 | 76.5 | 80.3 | 83.4 |
| PBT | 73.8 | 42.6 | 60.4 | 63.6 | 66.0 |
| Taxation | -9.1 | -13.0 | -10.9 | -11.5 | -11.9 |
| PATAMI | 61.7 | 26.2 | 49.6 | 52.2 | 54.1 |
| Core PATAMI | 63.9 | 37.4 | 49.6 | 52.2 | 54.1 |
| EPS (sen) | 8.0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| PER (x) | 6.0 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| DPS (sen) | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 4.2 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
Balance Sheet (RM’m)
| 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027F | 2028F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPE | 758.4 | 760.7 | 702.8 | 710.8 | 717.0 |
| Non-current assets | 873.1 | 887.0 | 819.0 | 826.8 | 827.7 |
| Receivables | 313.2 | 347.8 | 374.4 | 387.6 | 402.3 |
| Cash & cash equivalents | 167.1 | 159.7 | 176.1 | 227.5 | 0.0 |
| Current assets | 800.0 | 1,011.4 | 1,118.2 | 1,214.3 | 1,324.0 |
| Long-term debt | 246.5 | 208.8 | 221.0 | 231.0 | 241.0 |
| Non-current liabilities | 283.7 | 254.6 | 266.8 | 276.8 | 286.8 |
| Payables | 457.0 | 755.1 | 768.3 | 794.3 | 824.6 |
| Short-term debt | 76.5 | 82.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 |
| Current liabilities | 690.4 | 935.7 | 897.9 | 923.9 | 954.2 |
| Share capital | 100.8 | 100.8 | 100.8 | 100.8 | 100.8 |
| Retained earnings | 527.3 | 534.7 | 599.1 | 666.9 | 737.3 |
| Equity | 699.0 | 708.1 | 772.6 | 840.4 | 910.8 |
Cash Flow (RM’m)
| 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027F | 2028F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBT | 73.8 | 42.6 | 60.4 | 63.6 | 66.0 |
| Depreciation | 53.4 | 49.8 | 60.2 | 67.0 | 73.9 |
| Changes in WC | -36.5 | 102.3 | -13.4 | 12.9 | 15.5 |
| Operating cash flow | 80.1 | 207.6 | 96.3 | 132.1 | 143.5 |
| Capital expenditure | -208.3 | -90.8 | -75.0 | -75.0 | -75.0 |
| Investing cash flow | -202.2 | -84.8 | -75.0 | -75.0 | -75.0 |
| Debt raised/(repaid) | 110.5 | -80.7 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Dividends paid | -28.0 | -18.8 | -14.9 | -15.6 | -16.2 |
| Financing cash flow | 47.4 | -130.2 | -4.9 | -5.6 | -6.2 |
| Net cash flow | -74.7 | -7.4 | 16.4 | 51.4 | 62.3 |
| Beginning cash flow | 241.1 | 167.1 | 159.7 | 176.1 | 227.5 |
| Ending cash flow | 167.1 | 159.7 | 176.1 | 227.5 | 289.8 |
Profitability Ratios (%)
| 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027F | 2028F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OP margin | 8.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| PBT margin | 6.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| PATAMI margin | 5.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Core PATAMI margin | 6.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| ROA | 3.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| ROE | 9.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% |
Growth (%)
| 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027F | 2028F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -33.2% | -5.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| PBT growth | -38.7% | -42.3% | 41.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| PATAMI growth | -32.0% | -57.6% | 89.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| Core PATAMI growth | -29.1% | -41.5% | 32.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
Source: Tasco, MBSBR
