Malayan Banking, Hong Leong Bank, CIMB: Malaysia Banking Sector Update (Jun 2025)






Malayan Banking, Hong Leong Bank, CIMB: Malaysia Banking Sector Update (Jun 2025)


RHB

1 August 2025
Banks

Malaysia Sector Update

Financial Services | Banks

Malayan Banking, Hong Leong Bank, CIMB: Malaysia Banking Sector Update (Jun 2025)

Neutral (Maintained)

Stocks Covered: 8

Rating (Buy/Neutral/Sell): 3/5/0

Last 12m Earnings Revision Trend: Negative

Top Picks

Top Picks Target Price
Malayan Banking (MAY MK) – BUY MYR10.90
Hong Leong Bank (HLBK MK) – BUY MYR24.30
CIMB (CIMB MK) – BUY MYR8.40

Analysts

Nabil Thoo
+603 2302 8123
nabil.thoo@rhbgroup.com

David Chong CFA
+603 2302 8106
david.chongvc@rhbgroup.com

Jun 2025 Banking System Highlights

  • Top Picks: Malayan Banking, Hong Leong Bank and CIMB. Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) Jun 2025 statistics showed system loans growth of +5.1% YoY, a deceleration from the +6.4% recorded in Jun 2024. Other indicators – particularly on liquidity, asset quality and capital – remained healthy. Looking ahead, BNM’s recent overnight policy rate (OPR) cut poses risks to sector profitability especially in the near term, although we expect the statutory reserve requirement cut to cushion some of the impact. Still NEUTRAL.
  • System loans grew 5.1% YoY (+1.0% QoQ, +0.7% MoM) in Jun 2025. The YoY strength primarily came from household loans, which increased 6% YoY (QoQ: +1%, MoM: flat), while non-household loans grew by a more moderate 4% YoY (QoQ: +1%, MoM: +1%). The finance (+18% YoY, +4% QoQ), and transport & communications (+11% YoY, +1% QoQ) sectors showed solid momentum, while residential mortgages (+6% YoY, +1% QoQ) was the key driver for household loans. At the halfway point, YTD annualised loans growth stands at a more moderate 4.3%, which falls just short of our unchanged 4.5-5.0% forecast for 2025.
  • Lending indicators look mixed, with 6M25 system loan applications and approvals up 7% and 6% YoY respectively. These were mostly driven by the non-household segment (construction, transport & communications sectors), whereas growth in household applications and approvals were more modest. On the other hand, system loan disbursements growth was in negative territory, which we think reflects businesses’ ongoing cautiousness, particularly with respect to the uncertain global trade environment.
  • System deposits rose 3% YoY (flat QoQ, +1% MoM), ie at a softer clip compared to system loans growth – as a result, the system LDR inched up 2ppts YoY to 89% (+1ppt vs Mar 2025), though system liquidity remains robust with the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) at 161% (+6ppts YoY, +9ppts QoQ). CASA deposits growth (+5% YoY, +2% QoQ) outpaced that of fixed deposits (+3% YoY, flat QoQ), and hence, the system CASA ratio expanded to 31.6% (Jun 2024: 31.2%, Mar 2025: 31.3%). We also note the narrowing of interest rate spreads for the 6-month and 12-month FDs to 2bps in Jun 2025 from 5bps in Dec 2024, which could reflect the banks’ deposit management strategies in anticipation of an OPR cut.
  • Asset quality. Absolute GILs shed 6% YoY (QoQ: +1%), with particular decreases seen in the household sector (-2% YoY, +2% QoQ). Both the household and non-household GIL ratios eased YoY to 1.1% and 1.9% respectively (Jun 2024: 1.2% and 2.2%). Provision buffers appear adequate, with system LLC at 90.5%, ie still above the 2016-2019 average of 87%.
  • Capital ratios appear adequate – the banking system’s CET-1 and total capital ratios remained stable at 14.3% and 17.8% respectively (Jun 2024: 14.9% and 18.5%).

Drivers of system loans growth

A line chart showing YoY growth (%) for Households, Non-Households, and the total System from Jan-11 to Jan-25. The chart shows a general downward trend with fluctuations over the years. As of Jan-25, growth rates are converging.

Company Name Rating Target (MYR) % Upside (Downside) P/E (x) Dec-25F P/B (x) Dec-25F ROAE (%) Dec-25F Yield (%) Dec-25F
Affin Neutral 2.45 2.9 12.2 0.5 4.1 3.3
AMMB Neutral 5.50 8.9 8.5 0.8 9.4 6.1
BIMB Neutral 2.30 2.7 9.4 0.6 7.0 6.4
CIMB Buy 8.40 28.2 8.9 1.0 11.1 6.2
Hong Leong Bank Buy 24.30 27.9 8.7 1.0 11.2 4.2
Malayan Banking Buy 10.90 16.1 10.9 1.2 10.9 6.6
MBSB Neutral 0.67 (2.2) 11.9 0.6 4.8 5.9
Public Bank Neutral 4.75 12.8 11.0 1.3 12.7 5.5

Banking System Key Statistics

Figure 1: Key banking system statistics, Jun 2025

Jun-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 YoY (ppts) YTD (ppts) QoQ (ppts)
System loans growth YoY (%) 6.4 5.5 5.2 5.1
Household loans growth YoY (%) 6.4 6.0 5.9 5.8
Non-household loans growth YoY (%) 6.4 4.8 4.3 4.0
System deposits growth YoY (%) 4.9 3.0 3.0 2.9
CASA ratio (%) 31.2 31.4 31.3 31.6 0.4 0.2 0.3
LDR (%) 86.8 87.8 87.6 88.7 1.9 0.9 1.1
LCR (%) 155.2 160.7 151.6 160.6 5.4 (0.1) 9.1
CET-1 ratio (%) 14.9 15.1 14.4 14.3 (0.6) (0.7) (0.1)
Total capital ratio (%) 18.5 18.6 17.8 17.8 (0.7) (0.8) (0.0)
ALR (%) 5.32 5.11 4.97 4.89 (0.4) (0.2) (0.1)
6-month FD rate (%) 2.80 2.69 2.70 2.66 (0.1) (0.0) (0.0)
12-month FD rate (%) 2.79 2.74 2.71 2.68 (0.1) (0.1) (0.0)
Interest spread (ppts)* 2.52 2.42 2.27 2.23 (0.3) (0.2) (0.0)
OPR (%) 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
SRR (%) 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.00
System GIL ratio (%) 1.59 1.44 1.42 1.42 (0.2) (0.0) 0.0
Household GIL ratio (%) 1.17 1.08 1.07 1.08 (0.1) (0.0) 0.0
Non-household GIL ratio (%) 2.22 1.98 1.93 1.94 (0.3) (0.0) 0.0
System LLC (%) 91.7 92.0 91.2 90.5 (1.2) (1.5) (0.7)

Banking System Loans Growth

Figure 2: System loans by purpose, Jun 2025

MYR m % of total % MoM % YoY
Purchase of securities 75,640 3.3 0.4 (2.4)
Transport vehicles 236,195 10.3 0.4 6.9
(Of which: Passenger cars) 225,309 9.8 0.5 7.1
Residential property 869,498 37.9 0.5 6.4
Non-residential property 279,592 12.2 0.7 7.3
Fixed assets other than land & building 14,248 0.6 2.3 (7.8)
Personal use 119,219 5.2 0.1 3.4
Credit card 49,934 2.2 1.1 8.8
Consumer durables 208 0.0 (0.6) (8.4)
Construction 63,450 2.8 (0.1) 3.7
Working capital 507,217 22.1 1.1 4.0
Other purposes 81,891 3.6 1.1 (1.6)
Total 2,297,091 100.0 0.7 5.1

Figure 3: System loans by sector, Jun 2025

MYR m % of total % MoM % YoY
Primary agriculture 33,495 1.5 1.0 (6.5)
Mining & quarrying 8,903 0.4 (1.7) (4.4)
Manufacturing 138,099 6.0 0.7 1.8
Electricity, gas & water 23,326 1.0 2.7 24.8
Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants 186,831 8.1 0.2 2.7
Construction 95,775 4.2 0.1 (8.7)
Real estate 119,502 5.2 1.7 4.7
Transport & communications 59,920 2.6 2.8 11.2
Finance, insurance & biz 201,846 8.8 3.1 17.7
Education & health 39,940 1.7 (7.7) (12.9)
Household sector 1,374,586 59.8 0.5 5.8
Others 14,867 0.6 (0.2) (0.8)
Total 2,297,091 100.0 0.7 5.1

Figure 4: System loans growth

Shows total loans in MYR bn and % YoY growth. As of Jun-25, growth is 5.1%.

Figure 5: Loans growth – household vs non-households

Shows household YoY growth at +5.8% and non-household YoY growth at +4.0%.

Figure 6: Property loan growth – residential vs non-residential

Shows YoY growth for residential property at +6.4% and non-residential property at +7.3%.

Figure 7: Wholesale & retail trade, hotels & restaurants loan growth

Shows loan amount in MYR bn and YoY growth, which stands at 2.7%.

Figure 8: Manufacturing & construction loan growth

Shows manufacturing and construction loan amounts and YoY growth. Construction growth appears to be around 2.8%.

Figure 9: Finance, insurance & business activities loan growth

Shows loan amount and YoY growth for finance, insurance and business activities, at a high of 17.7%.

System Lending Indicators

Figure 10: System lending indicators

MYR bn 2024 Jan-Jun 2025 Jan-Jun % YoY 2Q24 1Q25 2Q25 % YoY % QoQ
System
Loan applications 698.0 744.4 6.6 364.9 352.6 391.8 7.4 11.1
Loan approvals 356.8 379.5 6.4 190.9 172.7 206.8 8.3 19.8
Loan disbursements 1,184.6 1,165.1 (1.6) 588.5 589.5 575.7 (2.2) (2.3)
Non-households
Loan applications 290.8 334.3 14.9 153.2 154.6 179.6 17.2 16.2
Loan approvals 175.5 198.7 13.2 94.7 86.5 112.2 18.4 29.6
Loan disbursements 934.2 915.8 (2.0) 466.1 462.3 453.5 (2.7) (1.9)
Households
Loan applications 407.2 410.1 0.7 211.7 197.9 212.2 0.2 7.2
Loan approvals 181.3 180.8 (0.3) 96.2 86.1 94.6 (1.6) 9.9
Loan disbursements 250.3 249.3 (0.4) 122.4 127.2 122.1 (0.2) (3.9)

Figure 11: System loan applications*

Shows 3-month moving average of loan applications in MYR bn and YoY growth. Latest YoY growth is 7.4%.

Figure 12: System loan approvals*

Shows 3-month moving average of loan approvals in MYR bn and YoY growth. Latest YoY growth is 8.3%.

Figure 13: System loan applications and approvals trends

A bar chart comparing Household (HH) and Non-Household (Non-HH) applications and approvals for 1H23, 1H24, and 1H25. Shows total application growth of +6.6% and approval growth of +6.4% in 1H25.

Banking System Deposit Growth

Figure 14: System deposit growth vs CASA growth

Shows total deposits at +2.9% and CASA deposits at +5.2% YoY.

Figure 15: Deposit growth by holders

Shows YoY growth for Financial Institutions (-2.8%), Businesses (+3.3%), and Individuals (+4.1%).

Figure 16: System LDR and LCR

A chart showing Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) and Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR). As of Jun-25, LDR is 88.7% and LCR is 160.6%.

Interest Rates And Capital Ratios

Figure 17: System average lending rate and interest spread

Shows Average Lending Rate (ALR), Overnight Policy Rate (OPR), and the interest spread. ALR is 4.89% and the spread is 2.23 ppts.

Figure 18: System capital ratios

Shows CET-1 ratio at 14.3%, Tier-1 capital ratio at 14.8%, and Total capital ratio at 17.8%.

Banking System Asset Quality

Figure 19: System GIL by purpose, Dec 2024

MYR m % of total % MoM % YoY
Purchase of securities 215 0.7 (6.1) (23.0)
Transport vehicles 1,190 3.7 (5.6) 9.4
(Of which: Passenger cars) 1,100 3.4 (5.3) 10.4
Residential property 9,843 30.3 (1.4) (7.0)
Non-residential property 4,033 12.4 (3.1) (1.7)
Fixed assets other than land & building 182 0.6 (4.7) (10.3)
Personal use 2,701 8.3 (3.8) (11.8)
Credit card 415 1.3 (3.1) (8.1)
Consumer durables 3 0.0 (3.1) 67.1
Construction 2,150 6.6 (9.7) (11.4)
Working capital 10,479 32.3 (2.0) (8.6)
Other purposes 1,236 3.8 (21.9) (21.3)
Total impaired loans 32,446 100.0 (3.8) (7.9)

Figure 20: System GIL by sector, Dec 2024

MYR m % of total % MoM % YoY
Primary agriculture 175 0.5 (3.7) (73.6)
Mining & quarrying 1,124 3.5 (1.1) (17.8)
Manufacturing 2,378 7.3 2.6 (8.2)
Electricity, gas & water 216 0.7 (17.5) (1.9)
Wholesale & retail, restaurants & hotels 4,036 12.4 (3.2) (0.4)
Construction 4,608 14.2 (5.6) (1.8)
Transport & communication 570 1.8 (45.0) (49.2)
Finance, insurance & biz 1,743 5.4 (3.9) 4.2
Education & health 525 1.6 0.1 (14.6)
Household sector 14,520 44.8 (2.1) (6.9)
Others 44 0.1 (21.8) (36.8)
Total impaired loans 32,446 100.0 (3.8) (7.9)

Figure 21: System GIL

Shows Non-HH GILs, HH GILs, and the System GIL ratio, which is at 1.42%.

Figure 22: System GIL ratio vs LLC ratio

Shows System Loan Loss Coverage (LLC) at 90.5% and the System GIL ratio at 1.42%.

Figure 23: GIL – households

Shows Household GILs and the HH GIL ratio, which is at 1.10%.

Figure 24: GIL – non-households

Shows Non-HH GILs and the Non-HH GIL ratio, which is at 1.94%.

Figure 25: GIL – construction

Shows Construction GILs and the GIL ratio, which is at 4.4%.

Figure 26: GIL – wholesale & retail trade, restaurants and hotels

Shows GILs for the sector and the corresponding GIL ratio, at 2.2%.

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months

Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain

Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months

Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels

Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months

Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

Investment Research Disclaimers

RHB has issued this report for information purposes only. This report is intended for circulation amongst RHB and its affiliates’ clients generally or such persons as may be deemed eligible by RHB to receive this report and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. This report is not intended, and should not under any circumstances be construed as, an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities referred to herein or any related financial instruments.

All the information contained herein is based upon publicly available information and has been obtained from sources that RHB believes to be reliable and correct at the time of issue of this report. However, such sources have not been independently verified by RHB and/or its affiliates and this report does not purport to contain all information that a prospective investor may require. The opinions expressed herein are RHB’s present opinions only and are subject to change without prior notice. RHB is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information and opinions expressed herein or to provide the recipient with access to any additional information.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

Malaysia

This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by RHB Investment Bank Berhad (“RHBIB”). The views and opinions in this report are our own as of the date hereof and is subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. RHBIB has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this report.

Indonesia

This report is issued and distributed in Indonesia by PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia. This research does not constitute an offering document and it should not be construed as an offer of securities in Indonesia. Any securities offered or sold, directly or indirectly, in Indonesia or to any Indonesian citizen or corporation (wherever located) or to any Indonesian resident in a manner which constitutes a public offering under Indonesian laws and regulations must comply with the prevailing Indonesian laws and regulations.

Singapore

This report is issued and distributed in Singapore by RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) which is an exempt capital markets services entity and an exempt financial adviser regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the report.

United States

This report was prepared by RHB is meant for distribution solely and directly to “major” U.S. institutional investors as defined under, and pursuant to, the requirements of Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) via a registered U.S. broker-dealer as appointed by RHB from time to time. Accordingly, any access to this report via Bursa Marketplace or any other Electronic Services Provider is not intended for any party other than “major” US institutional investors (via a registered U.S broker-dealer), nor shall be deemed as solicitation by RHB in any manner.

DISCLOSURE OF CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

RHB Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries (including its regional offices) and associated companies, (“RHBIB Group”) form a diversified financial group, undertaking various investment banking activities which include, amongst others, underwriting, securities trading, market making and corporate finance advisory.

… and other disclaimers continue on the original document.

Analyst Certification

The analyst(s) who prepared this report, and their associates hereby, certify that: (1) they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for: (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

KUALA LUMPUR

RHB Investment Bank Bhd
Level 3A, Tower One, RHB Centre
Jalan Tun Razak
Kuala Lumpur 50400
Malaysia
Tel: +603 2302 8100
Fax: +603 2302 8134

JAKARTA

PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia
Revenue Tower, 11th Floor, District 8 – SCBD
JI. Jendral Sudirman Kav 52-53
Jakarta 12190
Indonesia
Tel: +6221 5093 9888
Fax: +6221 5093 9777

SINGAPORE

RHB Bank Berhad (Singapore branch)
90 Cecil Street
#04-00 RHB Bank Building
Singapore 069531
Fax: +65 6509 0470


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *