Executing Well On Opex Efficiencies






Maxis Executing Well On Opex Efficiencies


RHB
Malaysia Results Review
Shariah Compliant
22 August 2025

Maxis (MAXIS MK)

Executing Well On Opex Efficiencies

Communications | Telecommunications

Target Price (Return): MYR3.72 (+8%)

Price (Market Cap): MYR3.44 (USD6,376m)

ESG score: 3.1 (out of 4)

Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD): 8.23m/1.92m

Analyst

Jeffrey Tan

+603 2302 8112

jeffrey.tan@rhbgroup.com

Share Performance (%)

YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m
Absolute (5.8) (2.3) (6.8) 0.3 (2.6)
Relative (2.5) (6.5) (9.6) 0.5 0.3

52-wk Price low/high (MYR): 3.12-4.00

Maxis (MAXIS MK) Price Close (Relative to FBM KLCI (RHS)) has shown fluctuations. Over the past year, the price ranged from 3.12 to 4.00 MYR.

  • Maintain NEUTRAL, new DCF-based TP of MYR3.72 (from MYR3.82), 8% upside with c.5% yield. Maxis’ 2Q/1H25 results were a slight beat, with continuing good cost restraint driving 3% YTD EBITDA growth. We see some normalisation in cost for 2H25, on seasonality. While the valuation of the stock remains undemanding (-1.8SD from historical EV/EBITDA mean), the uncertain 5G posture continues to mask earnings fundamentals, in our view.
  • A slight beat; opex excellence. 2Q25 core PATAMI of MYR398m (+7.3% QoQ, +11.8% YoY) brought 1H25 core PATAMI to MYR769m (+8.5% YTD), at 52% of our and consensus full-year estimates. An expected 4 sen DPS puts 1H25 DPS at 8 sen, with a payout ratio of 82%. Relative to our forecast, the key deviation was the stronger-than-expected efficiency gains, with the 3% opex decline YTD eclipsing the 0.7% service revenue contraction. We see some normalisation in cost in 2H25 alongside a pick-up in capex aligned to project delivery timelines. Management has reaffirmed its FY25 guidance on service revenue and EBITDA, but lifted capex guidance to c.MYR1bn (previously <MYR1bn). Post-results call, we adjust FY25F, FY26F and FY27F core earnings by -0.3%, -1 and -1% on incrementally higher capex assumptions.
  • Operational review. Consumer prepaid revenue rebounded after five consecutive quarters of decline, with the rebalancing of the prepaid portfolio. This contributed to a 2% prepaid ARPU uplift QoQ. On steady postpaid and home revenues, consumer converged revenue edged up by 1.4% QoQ. Negotiations with device/handset manufacturers have allowed Maxis to optimise device subsidies, which contributed to the improved cost economics. Enterprise fixed and solutions revenue grew from a low base in the preceding quarter. This offset legacy mobile weakness and contributed to the 2.2% growth YTD. Meanwhile, 5G wholesale cost remains at sub-MYR50m for the quarter.
  • Other updates. Management said it continues to engage with the authorities on the expanded scope of the Sales & Service tax (SST) involving tower rental and leasing services, with a worst-case impact assessed at c.1% of annualised EBITDA. Management expects the mobile network operators (MNOs) to potentially come to a landing on a new structure for Digital Nasional (DNB) by the year-end. A longer timeframe is, nonetheless, required for the implementation and execution of the structure. Maxis notes that the latest capital injection of MYR117m each into DNB by the MNOs is intended to sustain the latter’s operations.
  • Key downside risks to our call and/or forecasts are greater competition, weaker-than-expected margins and/or dividends, and regulatory setbacks. The opposite circumstances would present upside risks.

Forecasts and Valuation

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total turnover (MYRm) 10,180 10,536 10,673 11,079 11,480
Recurring net profit (MYRm) 1,354 1,396 1,444 1,519 1,516
Recurring net profit growth (%) 2.6 3.1 3.5 5.1 (0.1)
Recurring P/E (x) 19.94 19.34 18.69 17.78 17.80
P/B (x) 4.7 4.6 3.9 3.8 3.8
P/CF (x) 10.65 9.80 8.60 8.31 8.07
Dividend Yield (%) 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.7 5.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.14 8.69 8.57 8.05 7.80
Return on average equity (%) 16.4 24.0 22.7 21.8 21.4
Net debt to equity (%) 160.2 149.4 129.4 116.3 111.9

Overall ESG Score: 3.1 (out of 4)

E Score: 3.0 (GOOD)

S Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)

G Score: 3.0 (GOOD)

Please refer to the ESG analysis on the next page

Source: Company data, RHB

Emissions And ESG

Trend analysis

Maxis’ Scope 1 and 2 emissions declined in 2024 due to increased energy reduction initiatives. Overall emissions, however, rose as a result of maiden Scope 3 disclosures.

Emissions (tCO2e)

Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25
Scope 1 4,688 4,280 3,863 na
Scope 2 286,224 319,837 317,452 na
Scope 3 10,048 na
Total emissions 290,912 324,117 331,363 na

Source: Company data, RHB

Latest ESG-Related Developments

Maxis has decommissioned legacy network equipment with the installation of off-grid solar power systems at rural base stations across West and East Malaysia.

ESG Unbundled

Overall ESG Score: 3.1 (out of 4)

Last Updated: 15 May 2025

E Score: 3.0 (GOOD)

Maxis is committed to the progressive reduction in overall carbon footprint with proactive measures to raise the efficiency of its network via the use of innovative technologies and energy efficient equipment.

S Score: 3.3 (EXCELLENT)

Maxis helps in meeting the nation’s digital inclusion agenda as a technology and communications enabler with the aspiration to become Malaysia’s leading converged solutions provider. Its flagship community outreach programme, eKelas, which champions digital learning for students in rural areas has over 70,000 registered students on the eKelas portal.

G Score: 3.0 (GOOD)

The Board is made up of nine directors, five of which are independent. Two directors are women. The percentage of female representation is below the recommended threshold which the Board is hoping to address in the medium term. An in-house investor relations team facilitates management access and organises meetings with the investment community.

ESG Rating History

Maxis’ ESG rating has consistently been 3.1 from Aug-23 to Aug-25, indicating stable performance.

  • Aug-23: 3.1
  • Oct-23: 3.1
  • Dec-23: 3.1
  • Feb-24: 3.1
  • Apr-24: 3.1
  • Jun-24: 3.1
  • Aug-24: 3.1
  • Oct-24: 3.1
  • Dec-24: 3.1
  • Feb-25: 3.1
  • Apr-25: 3.1
  • Jun-25: 3.1
  • Aug-25: 3.1

Source: RHB

Financial Exhibits

Asia

Malaysia

Communications

Maxis

MAXIS MK

Neutral

Valuation basis

DCF (WACC: 8.1%, TG: 0.5%)

Key drivers

  1. ARPU improvement;
  2. Stronger growth in enterprise and home/fibre services.

Key risks

  1. Competition;
  2. Enterprise execution;
  3. Higher-than-expected capex;
  4. Negative regulatory/policy developments

Company Profile

Maxis is a leading converged telecommunications provider in Malaysia. It is also the largest fixed broadband retail provider via wholesale agreements inked with TM and other access providers.

Financial summary (MYR)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Recurring EPS 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19
DPS 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.20
BVPS 0.73 0.75 0.87 0.91 0.90
Return on average equity (%) 16.4 24.0 22.7 21.8 21.4

Valuation metrics

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Recurring P/E (x) 19.94 19.34 18.69 17.78 17.80
P/B (x) 4.7 4.6 3.9 3.8 3.8
FCF Yield (%) 6.4 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.7
Dividend Yield (%) 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.7 5.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.14 8.69 8.57 8.05 7.80
EV/EBIT (x) 19.15 15.41 15.40 14.54 14.42

Income statement (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total turnover 10,180 10,536 10,673 11,079 11,480
Gross profit 6,149 6,501 6,569 6,921 7,183
EBITDA 3,960 4,122 4,183 4,379 4,474
Depreciation and amortisation (2,070) (1,798) (1,854) (1,954) (2,054)
Operating profit 1,890 2,324 2,329 2,425 2,420
Net interest (446) (447) (403) (401) (398)
Pre-tax profit 1,444 1,877 1,926 2,025 2,022
Taxation (452) (481) (481) (506) (505)
Reported net profit 993 1,396 1,444 1,519 1,516
Recurring net profit 1,354 1,396 1,444 1,519 1,516

Cash flow (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Change in working capital 16 35 136 76 75
Cash flow from operations 2,535 2,754 3,138 3,249 3,343
Capex (813) (674) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)
Cash flow from investing activities (764) (693) (960) (960) (960)
Dividends paid (1,256) (1,335) (1,257) (1,257) (1,571)
Cash flow from financing activities (2,113) (2,451) (2,255) (1,752) (2,064)
Cash at beginning of period 628 569 464 376 913
Net change in cash (342) (390) (77) 537 319
Ending balance cash 286 179 387 913 1,232

Balance sheet (MYRm)

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Total cash and equivalents 569 464 376 913 1,232
Tangible fixed assets 5,384 5,091 6,202 5,947 5,592
Total investments 1,337 1,491 1,491 1,491 1,491
Total assets 22,781 22,323 23,378 23,755 23,812
Short-term debt 857 1,193 1,138 1,083 1,028
Total long-term debt 8,915 8,096 8,096 8,096 8,096
Total liabilities 17,037 16,417 16,534 16,649 16,762
Total equity 5,744 5,906 6,844 7,105 7,051
Total liabilities & equity 22,781 22,323 23,378 23,755 23,812

Key metrics

Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25F Dec-26F Dec-27F
Revenue growth (%) 4.0 3.5 1.3 3.8 3.6
Recurrent EPS growth (%) 2.6 3.1 3.5 5.1 (0.1)
Gross margin (%) 60.4 61.7 61.5 62.5 62.6
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 38.9 39.1 39.2 39.5 39.0
Net profit margin (%) 9.8 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.2
Dividend payout ratio (%) 126.5 95.6 87.0 82.8 103.6
Capex/sales (%) 8.0 6.4 9.4 9.0 8.7
Interest cover (x) 4.00 4.83 5.25 5.50 5.53

Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 1: Results review table

FYE Dec (MYRm) 2QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 QoQ (%) YoY (%) 1HFY24 1HFY25 YoY (%) Comments
Revenue 2,586.0 2,608.0 2,562.0 (1.8) (0.9) 5,189.0 5,170.0 (0.4) Seasonally lower device sales in 2Q25
Consumer revenue 1,815.0 1,773.0 1,797.0 1.4 (1.0) 3,619.0 3,570.0 (1.4) Stronger prepaid revenue QoQ with a 3% QoQ uplift in prepaid ARPU
Enterprise revenue 401.0 398.0 407.0 2.3 1.5 788.0 805.0 2.2 Lower base of solutions revenue in 1Q25 offset weaker legacy mobile revenues
Service revenue 2,216.0 2,171.0 2,204.0 1.5 (0.5) 4,407.0 4,375.0 (0.7) Enterprise growth was offset by weaker mobile revenue YTD
EBITDA 1,046.0 1,055.0 1,094.0 3.7 4.6 2,090.0 2,149.0 2.8 Strong cost discipline
EBITDA Margin (%)/Service revenue 47.2 48.6 49.6 1.0 47.4 49.1
Depreciation (439.0) (361.0) (361.0) 0.0 (17.8) (888.0) (722.0) (18.7)
EBIT 595.0 611.0 647.0 5.9 8.7 1,190.0 1,258.0 5.7
EBIT Margin (%) 23.0 23.4 25.3 22.9 24.3
Interest income 7.0 11.0 11.0 0.0 57.1 16.0 22.0 37.5
Interest expense (119.0) (122.0) (121.0) (0.8) 1.7 (244.0) (243.0) (0.4)
Pretax profit 483.0 500.0 537.0 7.4 11.2 962.0 1,037.0 7.8
Pretax Margin (%) 18.7 19.2 21.0 18.5 20.1
Tax (127.0) (129.0) (139.0) 7.8 9.4 (253.0) (268.0) 5.9
Effective tax rate (%) 26.3 25.8 25.9 26.3 25.8
Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.m.
Net Profit 356.0 371.0 398.0 7.3 11.8 709.0 769.0 8.5
Core Profit 356.0 371.0 398.0 7.3 11.8 709.0 769.0 8.5 Slightly ahead of our/market expectations
Net Margin (%) 13.8 14.2 15.5 13.7 14.9

Source: Company data

Figure 2: Key operational metrics

2QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Comments
Subscribers (m)^
– Prepaid 7.497 7.566 7.601 0.5 1.4
– Postpaid 5.129 5.549 5.647 1.8 10.1
– Wireless Broadband (WBB) 0.127 0.121 0.123 1.7 (3.1)
– Home Connections 0.707 0.727 0.727 0.0 2.8 Tight competition
Net adds (m)
– Prepaid 0.10 0.13 0.04 >100 >100 Still tight competition
– Postpaid 0.10 0.16 0.10 (39.1) 2.1 Pre-to post migration with higher take-up of entry level plans
– Home Connections 0.015 0.004 0.000 n.m. n.m.
ARPU (MYR)^
– Prepaid 29 26 27 1.9 (7.3) Rebalancing of portfolio
– Postpaid 68 65 64 (0.9) (5.2) Bundling and value propositions
– Blended 45 42 43 0.5 (4.7)

Note: ^market definition

Source: Company data

Recommendation Chart

Date Recommendation Target Price Price
2025-05-19 Neutral 3.82 3.68
2025-02-18 Neutral 3.82 3.52
2024-11-10 Neutral 3.92 3.57
2024-08-22 Neutral 3.86 3.62
2024-02-23 Neutral 4.00 3.78
2023-11-14 Neutral 3.90 4.08
2023-07-17 Neutral 3.78 4.09
2023-02-24 Neutral 4.03 3.99
2022-11-06 Neutral 3.93 3.79
2022-07-29 Neutral 3.93 3.67
2022-04-29 Neutral 3.98 3.80
2022-02-25 Neutral 4.45 3.98
2022-01-24 Neutral 4.75 4.33
2021-11-01 Neutral 4.75 4.60
2021-08-01 Neutral 4.66 4.26

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months

Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain

Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months

Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels

Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months

Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

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DISCLOSURE OF CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

RHB Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries (including its regional offices) and associated companies, (“RHBIB Group”) form a diversified financial group, undertaking various investment banking activities which include, amongst others, underwriting, securities trading, market making and corporate finance advisory.

As a result of the same, in the ordinary course of its business, any member of the RHBIB Group, may, from time to time, have business relationships with, hold any positions in the securities and/or capital market products (including but not limited to shares, warrants, and/or derivatives), trade or otherwise effect transactions for its own account or the account of its customers or perform and/or solicit investment, advisory or other services from any of the subject company(ies) covered in this research report.

While the RHBIB Group will ensure that there are sufficient information barriers and internal controls in place where necessary, to prevent/manage any conflicts of interest to ensure the independence of this report, investors should also be aware that such conflict of interest may exist in view of the investment banking activities undertaken by the RHBIB Group as mentioned above and should exercise their own judgement before making any investment decisions.

In Singapore, investment research activities are conducted under RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch), and the disclaimers above similarly apply.

Malaysia

Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Aug 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, RHBIB hereby declares that:

1. RHBIB does not have a financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.

2. RHBIB is not a market maker in the securities or capital market products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report.

3. None of RHBIB’s staff or associated person serve as a director or board member* of the subject company(ies) covered in this report

*For the avoidance of doubt, the confirmation is only limited to the staff of research department

Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research Conflict Disclosures Aug 2025 and to the best of our knowledge, the Singapore Research department of RHB Bank Berhad (through its Singapore branch) hereby declares that:

1. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or associated companies do not make a market in any issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.

2. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies and its analysts do not have a financial interest (including a shareholding of 1% or more) in the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.

3. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research staff or connected persons do not serve on the board or trustee positions of the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.

4. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not have and have not within the last 12 months had any corporate finance advisory relationship with the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report or any other relationship that may create a potential conflict of interest.

5. RHB Bank Berhad, or person associated or connected to it do not have any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, the securities, specified securities based derivatives contracts or units in a collective investment scheme covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.

6. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research analysts do not receive any compensation or benefit in connection with the production of this research report or recommendation on the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts.

Analyst Certification

The analyst(s) who prepared this report, and their associates hereby, certify that:

(1) they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for:

Analyst Company

(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.


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