MRDIY: Speed Mart Valuations Stretched, Prefer MRDIY
Company Note
Malaysia
REDUCE (previously HOLD)
Consensus ratings*:
Key Metrics:
*Source: Bloomberg
Key changes in this note
- No change.
Price performance
1M | 3M | 12M | |
---|---|---|---|
Absolute (%) | 12.1 | 14.7 | |
Relative (%) | 8.2 | 13.9 |
Major shareholders
% held | |
---|---|
Mr Lee Thiam Wah | 79.7 |
99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings
2Q25 growth in line, valuations stretched
- 99 Speed Mart’s 1H25 results were in line, with core net profit at 51% of our and Bloomberg consensus FY25F estimates.
- We believe that increased consumer spending power and longer operating hours led to 2Q25 SSSG growth, despite basket sizes continuing to decline.
- Downgrade to Reduce, with an unchanged TP of RM2.30. Even with stronger ROE generation, 99 Speed Mart’s multiples seem stretched at current levels.
2Q25 earnings in line
99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings today (18 Aug) announced 2Q25 core net profit (CNP) of RM153.2m (+22.1% yoy, +7.0% qoq), bringing 1H25 CNP to RM296.4m (+14.6% yoy). This was in line, at 51% of both our and Bloomberg consensus full-year forecasts. The higher yoy CNP in 2Q25 was driven by 61 new store additions, growth in both total store transactions and other operating income, which more than offset higher depreciation and staff costs due to new store openings and adjustment of overall wage structure due to the minimum wage increase.
Increased consumer spending power and bulk sales growth in 2Q25
We believe 2Q25 SSSG was positive, with total sales transaction volume rising 13.3% yoy, which outpaced store count growth of 9.4% yoy, and should more than offset the 1.4% decline in basket size to RM21. 99 Speed Mart’s results commentary attributed the higher transaction volume to increased consumer spending power, and we believe the extension of its operating hours with an earlier opening of 9am (from 10am) on 1 Jul 2025 helped as well. 99 Speed Mart also mentioned the recent launch of its “4 items for RM10” series, featuring at least 40 curated items, including F&B, personal care, and household essentials with the selection refreshed regularly. We see this initiative as an attempt to continue to grow sales transactions in all 2,894 of its outlets nationwide. Meanwhile, 99 Speed Mart’s bulk sales e-commerce platform recorded a 3x yoy increase in 2Q25 sales to RM11.8m (-12% qoq) as it continued to expand its outreach and customer awareness for this service.
Downgrade to Reduce, with unchanged RM2.30 TP
We keep our GGM-based TP of RM2.30 (ROE: 33.2%, LT growth: 5.5%, COE: 8.6%) unchanged and downgrade our rating on 99 Speed Mart to Reduce following its recent share price gains. While we think its stronger ROE generation among global grocery-based retailers (sustainable ROE of 33% vs. global average of 16%) and strong growth outlook warrant a premium valuation vs. local peers in our consumer coverage, we see its valuations stretched at 32.1x CY26F P/E (vs. peer average of 21x). In the consumer discretionary space, for a similar growth profile, we prefer MRDIY (FY24-FY27F CNP CAGR: 14.7%, 23x CY25F P/E, CY25F-27F div yield: 3-5%) over 99 Speed Mart (FY24-FY27F CNP CAGR: 12.9%, 36x CY25F P/E, CY25F-27F div yield: 3%). De-rating catalysts are lower SSSG and slowdown in household necessities spending growth. Upside risks: stronger-than-expected sales, steeper increase in other operating income fees.
Financial Summary
Dec-23A | Dec-24A | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (RMm) | 9,214 | 9,982 | 11,094 | 12,263 | 13,457 |
Operating EBITDA (RMm) | 803 | 941 | 1,087 | 1,232 | 1,377 |
Net Profit (RMm) | 400.2 | 490.2 | 579.6 | 654.4 | 735.5 |
Core EPS (RM) | 1.63 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
Core EPS Growth | (92.0%) | (92.9%) | (40.0%) | 12.9% | 12.4% |
FD Core P/E (x) | 1.53 | 21.74 | 36.23 | 32.09 | 28.55 |
DPS (RM) | 0.82 | 1.91 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
Dividend Yield | 32.9% | 76.3% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 0.66 | 11.05 | 18.79 | 16.68 | 14.99 |
P/FCFE (x) | 1.1 | 149.1 | 74.4 | 39.9 | 31.5 |
Net Gearing | (15.8%) | (44.0%) | (30.2%) | (21.5%) | (15.5%) |
P/BV (x) | 2.19 | 13.30 | 10.82 | 9.86 | 9.15 |
ROE | 68.3% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 32.1% | 33.2% |
% Change In Core EPS Estimates | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
EPS/Consensus EPS (x) | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.95 |
SOURCES: CGSI RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS
Analyst(s)
T (60) 3 2635 9260
E chengwei.lew@cgsi.com
T (60) 3 2635 9288
E prem.jearajasingam@cgsi.com
2Q25 growth in line, valuations stretched
Figure 1: 2Q25 results comparison
FYE 31 Dec (RM m) | 2QFY25 | 2QFY24 | yoy% chg | 1QFY25 | qoq% chg | 1H25 | 1H24 | yoy% chg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 2,707.8 | 2,419.9 | 11.9% | 2,612 | 3.7% | 5,319 | 4,846 | 9.8% |
Gross profit | 325.0 | 287.5 | 13.0% | 314 | 3.4% | 640 | 570 | 12.2% |
Gross profit margin | 12.0% | 11.9% | 0.1% | 12% | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 0.3% |
EBITDA | 275.3 | 240.6 | 14.4% | 260 | 5.7% | 536 | 488 | 9.8% |
EBITDA margin | 10.2% | 9.9% | 0.2% | 10.0% | 0.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
EBIT | 207.4 | 180.3 | 15.0% | 195 | 6.1% | 403 | 369 | 9.0% |
Core Net Profit | 153.2 | 125.5 | 22.1% | 143 | 7.0% | 296.4 | 258.7 | 14.6% |
SOURCES: CGSI RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS
Figure 2: 99 Speed Mart’s CY26F P/E of 29.5x at our TP (illustrated in Figure 2 is in line with global grocery-based retailers, with US names such as Costco and Walmart trading at a premium compared to global peers, suggesting that 99 Speed Mart’s current valuations of 32.1X CY26F P/E are stretched
This chart typically shows P/E (x) on the Y-axis and ROE (%) on the X-axis, with various global grocery retailers plotted. Companies like Costco Wholesale Corp and Walmart Inc are positioned higher, indicating higher P/E multiples, while other global and regional peers are typically lower. 99 Speed Mart’s position on the chart reflects its current valuation relative to its ROE, indicating it is stretched compared to peers.
SOURCES: CGSI RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS
BY THE NUMBERS
Chart: P/BV vs ROE trends over time
This chart depicts the Rolling P/BV (x) on the left Y-axis and ROE (rhs) on the right Y-axis against time (Jan-21A to Jan-26F), illustrating the historical and forecasted relationship between price-to-book value and return on equity.
Chart: 12-mth Fwd FD Core P/E vs FD Core EPS Growth trends over time
This chart shows the 12-month Forward Rolling Fully Diluted Core P/E (x) on the left Y-axis and Fully Diluted Core EPS Growth (rhs) on the right Y-axis against time (Jan-21A to Jan-26F), indicating the historical and forecasted trends in valuation multiple versus earnings per share growth.
Profit & Loss (RMm)
Dec-23A | Dec-24A | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Net Revenues | 9,214 | 9,982 | 11,094 | 12,263 | 13,457 |
Gross Profit | 1,030 | 1,104 | 1,220 | 1,349 | 1,480 |
Operating EBITDA | 803 | 941 | 1,087 | 1,232 | 1,377 |
Depreciation And Amortisation | (222) | (246) | (273) | (312) | (344) |
Operating EBIT | 581 | 695 | 813 | 920 | 1,033 |
Financial Income/(Expense) | (43) | (37) | (34) | (40) | (45) |
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Non-Operating Income/(Expense) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Profit Before Tax (pre-El) | 538 | 659 | 779 | 880 | 989 |
Exceptional Items | |||||
Pre-tax Profit | 538 | 659 | 779 | 880 | 989 |
Taxation | (138) | (168) | (199) | (225) | (253) |
Exceptional Income – post-tax | |||||
Profit After Tax | 400 | 490 | 580 | 654 | 736 |
Minority Interests | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Preferred Dividends | |||||
FX Gain/(Loss) – post tax | |||||
Other Adjustments – post-tax | |||||
Net Profit | 400 | 490 | 580 | 654 | 736 |
Recurring Net Profit | 401 | 510 | 580 | 654 | 736 |
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit | 401 | 510 | 580 | 654 | 736 |
Cash Flow (RMm)
Dec-23A | Dec-24A | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 803.1 | 941.0 | 1,086.5 | 1,231.6 | 1,376.9 |
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. | |||||
Change In Working Capital | 108.8 | (259.9) | (180.7) | (139.8) | (152.7) |
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions | |||||
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense | |||||
Other Operating Cashflow | 12.2 | 8.9 | (11.1) | (5.2) | (4.1) |
Net Interest (Paid)/Received | (42.6) | (36.5) | (34.3) | (40.2) | (44.6) |
Tax Paid | (140.5) | (167.5) | (199.4) | (225.2) | (253.1) |
Cashflow From Operations | 740.9 | 486.0 | 661.0 | 821.2 | 922.4 |
Capex | (160.2) | (170.7) | (385.0) | (300.0) | (260.0) |
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Other Investing Cashflow | 0.8 | (193.7) | 9.6 | 5.2 | 4.1 |
Cash Flow From Investing | (159.1) | (363.1) | (375.4) | (294.8) | (255.9) |
Debt Raised/(repaid) | (4.6) | (48.5) | (3.4) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares | 0.0 | 660.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Shares Repurchased | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Dividends Paid | (390.5) | (200.0) | (217.3) | (465.1) | (572.2) |
Preferred Dividends | |||||
Other Financing Cashflow | (135.1) | (173.8) | (176.9) | (188.4) | (198.3) |
Cash Flow From Financing | (530.2) | 237.6 | (397.7) | (653.5) | (770.5) |
Total Cash Generated | 51.6 | 360.6 | (112.0) | (127.0) | (104.0) |
Free Cashflow To Equity | 577.3 | 74.4 | 282.2 | 526.4 | 666.5 |
Free Cashflow To Firm | 625.9 | 167.9 | 329.5 | 571.9 | 715.2 |
SOURCES: CGSI RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS
BY THE NUMBERS… cont’d
Balance Sheet (RMm)
Dec-23A | Dec-24A | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash And Equivalents | 138 | 698 | 586 | 459 | 355 |
Total Debtors | 84 | 69 | 77 | 93 | 110 |
Inventories | 1,174 | 1,339 | 1,550 | 1,747 | 1,949 |
Total Other Current Assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Current Assets | 1,396 | 2,106 | 2,214 | 2,299 | 2,413 |
Fixed Assets | 479 | 576 | 880 | 1,081 | 1,229 |
Total Investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Intangible Assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Other Non-Current Assets | 790 | 878 | 927 | 957 | 973 |
Total Non-current Assets | 1,270 | 1,455 | 1,807 | 2,038 | 2,201 |
Short-term Debt | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt | |||||
Total Creditors | 1,201 | 1,007 | 1,046 | 1,119 | 1,184 |
Other Current Liabilities | 185 | 201 | 217 | 227 | 235 |
Total Current Liabilities | 1,391 | 1,212 | 1,262 | 1,345 | 1,419 |
Total Long-term Debt | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid Debt – Debt Component | |||||
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities | 687 | 771 | 817 | 862 | 902 |
Total Non-current Liabilities | 734 | 771 | 817 | 862 | 902 |
Total Provisions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Liabilities | 2,125 | 1,982 | 2,079 | 2,207 | 2,321 |
Shareholders’ Equity | 542 | 1,579 | 1,941 | 2,131 | 2,294 |
Minority Interests | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Equity | 542 | 1,579 | 1,941 | 2,131 | 2,294 |
Key Ratios
Dec-23A | Dec-24A | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue Growth | 14.1% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% |
Operating EBITDA Growth | 9.7% | 17.2% | 15.5% | 13.4% | 11.8% |
Operating EBITDA Margin | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% |
Net Cash Per Share (RM) | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
BVPS (RM) | 1.14 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.27 |
Gross Interest Cover | 13.19 | 15.43 | 18.52 | 20.24 | 21.24 |
Effective Tax Rate | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% |
Net Dividend Payout Ratio | 98% | 3269% | 50% | 80% | 80% |
Accounts Receivables Days | 1.38 | 1.05 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.86 |
Inventory Days | 50.56 | 51.81 | 53.40 | 55.13 | 56.31 |
Accounts Payables Days | 39.85 | 39.55 | 35.28 | 33.68 | 32.68 |
ROIC (%) | 34.4% | 45.3% | 36.6% | 31.5% | 30.3% |
ROCE (%) | 90.8% | 64.7% | 46.7% | 45.4% | 46.9% |
Return On Average Assets | 17.1% | 16.6% | 16.0% | 16.4% | 17.2% |
Key Drivers
Dec-23A | Dec-24A | Dec-25F | Dec-26F | Dec-27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net store additions | 275.0 | 252.0 | 245.0 | 245.0 | 245.0 |
SSSG | 6.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
SOURCES: CGSI RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS
ESG in a nutshell
ESG
99 Speed Mart is currently not in LSEG’s coverage of ESG scoring framework nor is it a constituent of FTSE4Good Bursa Malaysia Index, as it has yet to publish a comprehensive sustainability report, having just been listed in Sep 2024, which we believe indicates room for improvement in transparency and ESG integration. Existing sustainability efforts disclosed include renewable energy adoption, ethical governance and waste management.
Keep your eye on
99 Speed Mart’s plastic packaging and waste generation remain in focus. As a high-volume convenience retailer, the company’s environmental footprint is considerable, particularly in packaging waste and plastic consumption. While it has taken some measures to improve its packaging waste and plastic consumption, such as launching MADANI Reusable Bag & Plastic-Free Campaign and converting expired perishable goods into fertilisers, there is limited disclosure on its waste reduction performance and measurable targets. The company’s approach to sustainable packaging and single-use plastics will be critical for future ESG evaluation.
Implications
While we do not see any clear empirical correlation between ESG rankings and share price performance, we believe ESG disclosures are becoming important investment criteria for institutional investors. On an absolute basis, we do not expect its ESG performance to have a material impact on revenue/earnings, as these are more likely to be driven by factors such as SSSG and store rollouts.
ESG highlights
99 Speed Mart’s current ESG focus is on a few main areas: i) environmental efficiency, ii) community contribution, and iii) transparency and accountability. 99 Speed Mart’s staff are mostly paid above Malaysia’s minimum wage (only 4% are paid the minimum wage), but no remuneration disparities data, employees’ turnovers, and executive positions’ gender diversity data are documented.
Implications
While we do not see any clear empirical correlation between ESG rankings and share price performance, we believe ESG disclosures are becoming important investment criteria for institutional investors. On an absolute basis, we do not expect its ESG performance to have a material impact on revenue/earnings, as these are more likely to be driven by factors such as SSSG and store rollouts.
Trends
99 Speed Mart has also registered notable improvements in the use of renewable energy in its operations. Solar panels have been installed in its distribution centres since 2018, which reduces its reliance on grid power and neutralises carbon footprint. In its 4Q24 results briefing, 99 Speed Mart’s management stated that its focus in FY25F is on improvements in its stores, with a ramp-up in energy efficiency activities, e.g. installing inverter air conditioning units, solar photovoltaic systems and non-heated glass freezers, with these installations expected to decrease a store’s utility costs by 50%.
Implications
We have incorporated higher capex in FY25F-27F, almost double its historical run-rate, as we believe that 99 Speed Mart will spend significantly more to expedite its storefront energy-efficiency improvements. We think that this will lead to a decrease in its utility expenses, even as it continues to expand its store count.
SOURCES: CGSI RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS
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Other Significant Financial Interests:
(i) As of August 13, 2025 CGS International has a proprietary position in the securities (which may include but not be limited to shares, warrants, call warrants and/or any other derivatives) in the following company or companies covered or recommended in this report:
- 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Mr D.I.Y. Group (M) Bhd
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Corporate Governance Report (CGR):
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The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. CGS TH does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Score Range: | 90-100 | 80-89 | 70-79 | Below 70 | No Survey Result |
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Description: | Excellent | Very Good | Good | N/A | N/A |
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Recommendation Framework
Stock Ratings
Rating | Definition: |
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Add | The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months. |
Hold | The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months. |
Reduce | The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months. |
The total expected return of a stock is defined as the sum of the: (i) percentage difference between the target price and the current price and (ii) the forward net dividend yields of the stock. Stock price targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.
Sector Ratings
Rating | Definition: |
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Overweight | An Overweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a positive absolute recommendation. |
Neutral | A Neutral rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a neutral absolute recommendation. |
Underweight | An Underweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a negative absolute recommendation. |
Country Ratings
Rating | Definition: |
---|---|
Overweight | An Overweight rating means investors should be positioned with an above-market weight in this country relative to benchmark. |
Neutral | A Neutral rating means investors should be positioned with a neutral weight in this country relative to benchmark. |
Underweight | An Underweight rating means investors should be positioned with a below-market weight in this country relative to benchmark. |